Read ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÉÓ ÌÉÄÒ, 2002 ßËÉÓ ÐÉÒÅÄË ÊÅÀÒÔÀËÛÉ ÂÀßÄÖËÉ text version

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

ÈÁÉËÉÓÉ 2004 ßÄËÉ

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

2004 wlis rva Tvis mimoxilva

ÓÀÒÜÄÅÉ

1. 2. ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri tendenciebi ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------gv. 4 gv. 23

politikuri xasiaTis riskebis FSefasebisa da definiciis problemebi

3.

kapitalis adeqvaturobaze erovnuli bankis arsebuli moTxovnis naklovanebebi -------------------------------------------------------------------gv. 34

4.

bankebis safinanso angariSebis eqspres-analizi 2003 wlis 31 dekmembrisa da 2004 wlis 31 agvistos mdgomareobiT -----------------------------gv. 48

5.

sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

gv. 60

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

2

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

Sesavali ZiriTadi makroekonomikuri tendenciebi

nominaluri m S p zomis erTeuli mln.lari lari mln.lari mln.lari % ianvariagvisto, 2003 3929.2* 861.1* 1512,4 1286.1* 109.5* 2003 8564,9 1880,1 2447,1 2475,2 111,1 ianvariagvisto, 2004 4506.2* 993* 1785,7 1266.8* 109.4*

saqarTvelos periodi da nakleb

ekonomikaSi gasuli wlis

mimdinare analogiuri

procesebis periodi.

mSp erT sulze mrewvelobis produqciis moculoba soflis meurneobis produqciis moculoba realuri m S p-is zrdis tempi saxelmwifo biujeti Semosavlebi maT Soris sagadasaxado Semosavlebi xarjebi deficiti saarsebo minimumi (periodis bolosaTvis): Sromisunariani mamakacisaTvis saSualo momxmareblisaTvis saSualo ojaxisaTvis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi CPI% mwarmoebelTa fasebis indeqsiP PPI % fuladi masa MM 2 fulis multiplikatori dolarizaciis koeficienti % wliuri inflacia % eqsporti (FOB) importi (CIF) sagareo savaWro balansi

analizisaTvis gamoyenebuli iqna 2004 wlis 1 ianvris Semdgomi postrevoluciuri periodis analizi, romelic gasuli wlis noembris Semdgom "vardebis revoluciiT aris cnobili gacile biT ufro srulyofilad moicavs im ZiriTad tendenciebs, rac ianvris Semdgom ar saqarTvelos yofila, rac samomxmareblo zemoqmedebda da safinanso bazrebze mimdinareobda. marTalia, postrevoluciuri situacia erTaderTi ekonomikuri

mln.lari % mln.lari mln.lari

611,9 62,7 762,1 -150,2

932,4 59,6 1118,5 -186,1

985,0 54,3 1028,5 -43,5

subieqtebis qcevis wesze, magram maTi zegavlena mniSvnelovani iyo. makroekonomikri maCveneblebidan zrda SeiniSneba yvela ZiriTadi produqti parametrebis gasuli mixedviT. nominaluri MmTliani Sida wlis analogiur periodTan SedarebiT

lari lari lari

126,5 111,0 220,1 101,4 112,8

136,0 119,4 236,7

132,4 116,2 230,4 99,5 117,5

mln. Rari

503,93 0,90 85,7 5,1

527

674,70 0,96 78,2 5,0

gaizarda 3 mlrd. 929 mln. laridan 4 mlrd. 500 mln. laramde da Sesabamisad igi gaizarda erT sul mosaxleze gaangariSebiT 861 laridan 785 993 mln. laramde. laramde zrda SeiniSneboda mrewvelobis periodSi

3

mln. aSS $ mln. aSS $ mln. aSS $

256,4 692,2 -435,8

444,1 1057,8 -613,7

409,0 1092,6 -683,6

produqciazec da misi moculoba 1 mlrd. 512 mln. laridan 1 mlrd. gaizarda. Aanalogiur

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

rig raionebSi gazafxulze amindis Wirveulobas da wyaldidobebs ukavSirdeboda. mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi SeiniSneboda saarsebo minimumis zrdis YTvalsazrisiTac, rac samomxmareblo fasebis zrdas ukavSirdeba.

marTalia, samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi mniSvnelovnad ar Secvlila da agvistos TveSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT Semcirda kidec, magram mxolod indeqsze apelireba arasworad migvaCnia. jer erTi indeqsi aTvlis wertilad gasuli wlebis garkveul periods iRebs da meorec mosaxleobisaTvis da misi msyidvelobiTi unarisaTvis naklebi mniSvneloba aqvs fasebis krefsiT maCvenebels. aRsaniSnavia, rom mTel rig sasursaTo produqciaze fasebis zrda mainc SesamCnevi iyo. statistikis saxelmwifo departamentis monacemebiT marto pirvel Svid TveSi xilis, yurZnisa da alkoholiani sasmelebis jgufebi Sesabamisad 28,3 da 12,8%-iT gaizarda. migvaCnia, rom samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis maCvenebelze sezonurma faqtorma ufro imuSava da misi gavleniT sasursaTo saqonlisa da ualkoholo sasmelebis fasebi 1,8%-iT Semcirda, xolo calkeuli jgufebis mixedviT misi Semcirebis maCvenebeli kidev ufro meti iyo, ZiriTadad bostneulisa da baRCeulisa ­ 14% da rZe da rZis produqtebis gaiafebis

xarjze ­ 12,7%. gasuli wlis analogiur periodTan SedarebiT fasebis saerTo done gaizarda 5,4%-iT, maT Soris sasursaTo saqonlis ­ 6,8%-iT, arasasursaTo saqonlis - 5,2%-iT. AmasTan fasebis mniSvnelovani zrda dafiqsirda sawvavze 15%, ramac mniSvnelvanwilad ganapiroba kidec mwarmoebelTa fasebis zrda da romlis indeqsic gasuli wlis ivlisTan SedarebiT 4%-mde gaizarda. mniSvnelovani saxis cvlilebebi moxda qveynis sagareo savaWro balansis mixedviTac. marTalia,

struqturuli TvalsazrisiT cvlilebebi umniSvneloa da wamyvan savaWro partnior qveynebTan kvlav uaryofiTi savaWro saldo gvaqvs, magram sagareo savaWro brunva agvistos monacemebiT yvela wamyvan qveyanasTan mimarTebaSi gaizarda, pirvel or wamyvan qveyanasTan ruseTTan da TurqeTTan 12%-mdec ki, xolo danarCen qveynebTan saSualod 5%-iT. eqsport-importis dinamikaSi, gasuli wlis analogiur periodTan SedarebiT, zrda SeiniSneboda yvela umsxvilesi saeqporto da saimporto sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT, maT Soris eqsportSi ­ Savi liTonebis jarTze (13%), feroSenadnobebze (6%), xolo importSi ki ­ navTobsa da navTobproduqtebze (10%), msubuq

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

4

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

avtomobilebze

(6%),

xorbalis

fqvilze

(5%),

Saqarze

(3%).

Mmiuxedavad

oficialurad

warmodgenili

am

optimisturi suraTisa igi fasebis zrdisa da savaluto kursis gamyarebis Sedegi ufroa, vidre calsaxad administrirebis gaZlierebisa. es Tvalszrisi metad yuradsaRebia, radgan statistikis saxelmwifo komitetis monacemebiT pirveli ivlisis mdgomareobiT legalizebulia: purfunTuSeuli da fqvili - 12-12%-iT, sawvavi 29,6%-iT, m.S. benzini ­ 26,6%-iT, dizeli 35%-iT, saburavi 18%-iT, naTura 0,8%-iT, maSin roca Saqari

legalizebulia 98%-iT. eraySi mimdinare saomarma moqmedebebma da erayis rogorc erT-erTi wamyvani navTob eqsportiori qveynis Sida problemebma barel navTobis fasi 28 dan 50 dolaramde gazarda. fasebis zrda gavrcelda yvela saxis produqciaze, rasac ki Sexeba hqonda navTobTan. gasuli wlis analogiur periodTan SedarebiT mTlianad eqsporti gaizarda 256 mln. dolaridan 409 mln dolaramde, rac mTeli gasuli wlis maCveneblis 92%-ia, importi gaizarda 693 mln. Ddolarodan 1 mlrd. 92 milion dolaramde da rac mTeli gasuli wlis maCvenebelze metia (1057,8 mln). miuxedavad aRniSnuli erTi

SexedviT dadebiTi tendenciebisa, qveynis sagareo savaWro balansis uaryofiTi maCvenebeli kidev ufro izrdeba. marto mimdinare wlis agvistos Tvis monacemebiT, uaryofiTi saldo 683 mln. dolars wlis analogiur periodTan SedarebiT 1,6 jer metia. msoflios bazarze mimdinare procesebis Sedegad fasebis zrda importisa da samamulo produqciaze, savaluto kursis gamyarebis paralelurad mimdinareobda. savaluto kursis gamyareba martis Tvidan daiwyo xolo agvistos pirveli naxevridan misi maCvenebeli 22%-Tac ki gamyarda. erovnuli banki dadebiTad sistemis miiCnevs, radgan sxva SemTxvevaSi fasebis zrda kidev ufro didi wonasworobis dacvis TvalsazrisiT, normalur pirobebSi savaluto kursis iqneboda. Tumca Semosavlebi miuaxlovda, rac gasuli

gamyarebas ekonomikuri

sagadasaxado

izrdeba importisa da samamulo produqciis naturaSi zrdis pirdapir proporciulad, CvenTan ki disproporcias ufro hqonda adgili. wlis pirvel naxevarSi benzinis importi gaizarda 13%-iT, aqcizuri gadasaxadi amave moculobaze ki 50%-iT namati Semosavlidan 74% fasebis zrdis, xolo 26% legalizaciis wilad modis.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

5

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

sworad

migvaCnia,

mosazreba,

romlis

Tanaxmadac

Tu

ara

fasebis

zrdis

faqtori

da

garigebiTi

marTlsajulebis praqtikis SemoRebis Sedegad miRebuli Semosavlebi Semosavlebis gegmas ramdenime aTeuli milioni lari daakldeboda. ase magaliTad, sabaJo deklaraciebis mixedviT erTi tona importirebul produqciaze fasebi gaizarda: xorblis - 198 lariT, fqvilis - 84 lariT, Saqris ­ 56 lariT, benzinis ­ 184 lariT da dizelis ­ 65 lariT. marto am produqciidan, romelTa wili importSi 17%-iT. eqspertTa nawilis SefasebiT fasebis zrdis xarjze dasabegri brunva yvela etapze gaTvliT 370 milioni lariT gaizarda, sul

importze ki es maCvenebeli minimum 1 miliard lars sWarbobs. metad saintereso suraTs iZleva qveynis sabiujeto Semosavlebis dinamika. gasuli wlis analogiur periodTan SedarebiT igi 611 mln. .laridan 985 mln. Llaramde anu mTeli 60 %-iT gaizarda, rac Zalze STambeWdavad gamoiyureba. magram saeqspeerto Sefasebisas aq yuradReba unda gamaxvildes ara mxolod cifrobriv maCvenebelze. Aase magaliTad, Tu samrewvelo produqciis gamoSveba naturaSi 15%-mde, xolo RirebulebaSi gamoxatuli ­ 26,6%-iT gaizarda, samagierod matebidan 337 milioni lari fasebis zrdis xarjze modis da dasabegri brunva or etapze gaTvliT 700 milion larze metia. orive sferoSi dasabegri brunvis jami 1,7 miliard lars sWarbobs, saidanac biujetma damatebiT minimum 170 milioni lari miiRo. rac Seexeba generaluri prokuraturis mier moZiebuli milionebis Sedegad formirebul biujetis "araSromiTi" Semosavals, igi biujetis Sesrulebis maCvenebelze mcireoden warmatebiT 225 milion laramde gaizarda. amasTanave Sida bazris dacvisaTvis, savaluto kursis Semdgomi gamyareba, samamulo produqciisa da eqsportis mTlian deformacias gamoiwvevs da seriozul problemebs Seuqmnis sabanko seqtors. msoflioSi mimdinare uaryofiTi ekonomikuri procesebis gavleniT fasebis zrdas moyva mosaxleobis msyidvelunarianobis daqveiTeba, anu xelfasebisa da pensiebis arapirdapiri gziT Semcireba. radgan saqarTvelos specifikidan gamomdinare, sadac milionze meti migrantia, xolo mosaxleobis 20 %-ze meti pensioneria ojaxebis biujetis mniSvnelovani nawili, garedan ucxouri valutis SemosavlebiT formirdeba.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

6

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

migvaCnia, rom mTavrobis ekonomikuri blokis mier fasebis samomavlo zrdis mniSvnelovnad Sesamcireblad unda daiwyos importze dabegvris aqcizuri ganakveTis cvlilebis meqanizmis amoSaveba, fasebis Sida bazarze regulirebisaTvis. miT umetes 2005 wlis biujetis saSemosavlo nawili TiTiqmis orjer aris gazrdili, xolo Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, moculoba, rom ianvridan axali sagadasaxado kodeqsis mixedviT mcirdeba jamuri gadasaxadebis dasabegri baza ara orjer aramed metadac ki gaizrdeba ekonomikis legalizebis moculobasTan

erTad. Mmagram ekonomikis legalizaciis procesis dros ekonomika gadadis funqcionirebis axal reJimSi, romelic grZeldeba garkveuli periodis, xSirad ramdenime wlis manZilze, sanam Crdilovani ekonomikis maStabebi ar Semcirdeba qveynebis misaReb parametrebze.Aamitom, samomavlo tendenciebi da SedarebiT grZelvadiani pirdapir iqneba damokidebuli imaze Tu ramdenad Seuqcevadi da Tanamimdevruli iqneba axali xelisuflebis neba korufciasTan brZolaSi civiluri meTodebis Canacvlebaze biznesis legalizaciis xelSewyobis mimarTulebiT.

"dedolarizacia" da misi problemebi sabanko seqtorSi mimdinare procesebis Sefaseba SedarebiT obieqturi rom iyos, aucileblad migmaCnia im winapirobebisa da tendenciebis gaanalizeba, romlebic sabanko seqtorSi ukanaskneli erTi wlis manZilze ufro

zustad Tu vityviT axali wlidan mimdinareobs. bevrisaTvis dRes gaugebaria Tu ratom ar izrdeba ufro swrafad fuladi masa da ratom ar xdeba ekonomikis gacilebiT maSin didi maStabebiT dakrediteba. bankma ratom aris kvlav problema komerciuli sesxis xelmisawvdomoba, rodesac erovnulma minimumamde Seamcira mozidul saxsrebze aucilebeli

minimaluri sarezervo ganakveTis sidide, amave periodSi Semcirda bankTaSorisi sakredito resursebis fasi, saxazino valdebulebebis wliuri saprocento ganakveTebi da a. S. da rac mTavaria yovelive aman mniSvnelovnad daswia Tavad komerciuli kreditis fasi. Tu SarSan saSualo wliuri ganakveTebi biznes sesxebze 20-24 procentis farglebSi meryeobda, dReisaTvis igi 15-20 procentis

7

farglebSia.

miuxedavad

amisa,

bankebisaTvis

kvlav

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

problemaa Tavisufali fualadi saxsrebis maRallikvidur aqtivebSi ganTavseba, maT Soris klienturis bazis gafarToebis kuTxiT. agvistos mdgomareobiT zrdis tendenciebs inarCunebda rogorc mimoqcevaSi myofi naRdi fulis masa (gaizarda 22%iT), aseve farTo fulis agregatebi ­ farTo fulis M2 agregati (mimoqcevaSi myof erovnuli fulis masas damatebuli depozitebi erovnul valutaSi) wlis dasawyisidan gaizarda 512 mln. laridan agvistos mdgomareobiT 674,4 mln. laramde anu 32%-iT. samagierod, farTo fulis M3 agregati (mimoqcevaSi arsebuli erovnul erovnuli da ucxour fulis masas damatebuli 1 depozitebi 084 mln. valutaSi) 18%-T, mlrd.

aTasi lari 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tveebis mixedviT

sadepozito valdebulebebis moculoba da struqtura

laridan 1 mlrd. 273 mln­mde gaizarda, xolo agvistoSi wina TvesTan SedarebiT umniSvnelod 1,5%-iT. 2004 wlis ivlisSi ivnisTan SedarebiT bankebis sadepozito valdebulebebi 8,7%iT gaizarda da 779 mln. lars miuaxlovda, xolo wina wlis DdasawyisidanAN misi zrda kidev ufro TvalsaCinoa - 16%.

aTasi lari

fulis masis agregatebis dinamika

1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tveebis mixedviT M2 M3

marTalia, gacilebiT

misi

maCvenebeli

Semcirda

agvistoSi,

magram

umniSvnelod 765 mln. laramde. migvaCnia, rom analizisaTvis mniSvnelovani misi struqturuli cvlilebaa. marto wlis dasawyisidan sadepozito bazis zrda erovnul valutaSi TiTqmis 72%-ia (gaizarda 96,6 mln laridan 166 mln. laramde), rac 2,5 jer metia vidre ucxour valutaSi ­ 27% (gaizarda 570,6 mln. laridan 598,7 mln. laramde) da es tendenciac SenarCundeba *.

* - seqtemberSi larSi depozitebis maCvenebeli 173 mln. lari iyo. 2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

8

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

MmarTalia, sadepozito valdebulebebis zrda bolo wlebSi da gasul 2003 welsac analogiur trendSi meryeobda da 2003 wlis dasawyisidan ivlisamde igi gaizarda 512 mln. 980 aTasi laridan 581 aTas laramde anu mTeli 14%_iT, magram erovnul valutaSi misi zrda aseTi TvalSisacemi ar yofila, gaizarda ra mxolod 84

aTasi lari 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tveebis mixedviT sesxebi erovnul valutaSi sesxebi ucxour valutaSi

bankebis sesxebis moculoba 2004 weli

mln. 369 aTasi laridan 87 mln. 488 aTas laramde. sadepozito bazis aseTi mkveTri zrda erovnul valutaSi ZiriTadad mimdinare angariSebze modis, Tumca zrdis tendenciebs vadiani depozitebic inarCuneben. vadiani depozitebi erovnul valutaSi 10,5 mln. laridan 15 mln. laramde anu 50%-iT gaizarda, xolo ucxour valutaSi 335,9 mln laridan 392,3 mln laramde anu mxolod 17%-iT. niSandoblivia, rom ukve seqtembris Tvidan ucxour valutaSi depozitebis moculobas klebis tendencia daetyo da wina Tvis maCvenebeli Semcirda 9 mln. lariT, maSin roca erovnul valutaSi kidev ufro gaizarda 19, 9 mln lars miaRwia. wlis dasawyisidan sesxebis moculoba erovnul valutaSi iuridiul da fizikur pirebze klebis tendenciebs inarCunebda da ivnisis TveSi 90 mln. 428 aTasi laridan 77 mln. 349 aTas laramde Semcirda. Tumca ivlisis Tvidan zrdis tendencia daetyo gaizarda ra 84 mln. 383 aTas laramde, xolo seqtemberSi 93 mln. 598 aTas lari Seadgina. Tumca tendenciis TvalsazrisiT, es bevrs arafers niSnavs, radgan zustad identur trends hqonda adgili gasul welsac. samagierod, mimdinare wels analogiuri maCvenebeli ucxour valutaSi sapirispiro trendSi wlis dasawyisidan agvistos CaTvliT 649 mln. laridan 657,7 mln. laramde aris gazrdili.

bankebis depozitebi erovnul valutaSi

aTasi lari

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Tveebis mixedviT 2004 weli 2003 weli

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

9

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

amdenad, sabanko sistemaSi fulis farTo agregatebisa da dolarizaciis Semcirebisa da savaluto kursis gamyarebaSi aisaxa.

sadepozito bazis es cvlileba sistemis

dedolarizaciis problemebi uSualod ukavSirdeba mTel rig safinanso da fsiqologiur problemebs. 1. cnobilia, rom komerciuli sesxis fasi mravali faqtoridan da upirvelesad bankebis mier moziduli saxsrebidan da riskebidan gamodis. CvenTan samwuxarod naklebi yuradReba eqceva xolme biznes riskebis faqtors ufro zusti viqnebiT Tu vityviT, rom mikro da makro riskebis erTobliv analizs. makro da mikro riskebis specifika ki upirvelesad qveynis riskebidan momdinareobs. cnobisaTvis "vebsTeris" leqsikonis mixedviT, "riskis gageba xdeba prioritetuli im sazogadoebisaTvis, romelic emSvidobeba warsuls Tavisi tradiciuli cxovrebis wesiT da gadadis gaurkvevel momavalSi". saqarTvelosTvisac disidentur es momenti Tu Zalze iyo aqtualuri xdeba. sabWoTa kavSirSi cxovrebis arc dros riskebi krediti

moRvaweobasTan

dakavSirebuli,

magram

amavdroulad

komerciuli

arsebobda arc bazari da arc kerZo sakuTreba. xSirad aqcentebi komerciuli xasiaTis riskebze gadaaqvT, arada riskebis gansazRvris mTavari kriteriumi qveynis riskia, romelic Sedgeba kidec komerciuli da politikuri riskebisagan. Tu komerciuli xasiaTis riskebi gadaxdisunarianobis an satrasferTo riskebTan aris dakavSirebuli, gacilebiT rTuli ganmsazRvreli da prognozirebadi politikuri riskebia.

magaliTisaTvis politikur riskebSi Sedis ara mxolod qveynis politikuri sistemis xasiaTi, Tu ra saxisaa igi ­ demokratiuli, avtoritaruli Tu liberal-demokratiuli, aramed iseTi momentebi rogoricaa: qveynis mosaxleobis kulturuli, religiuri da moraluri Rirebulebebi, xelisuflebis da misi liderebis miswrafebebi da unar-Cvevebi, opoziciis done, xasiaTi da a.S. niSandoblivia, rom arsebobs politikuri da ekonomikuri riskebis gansazRvris saerTaSoriso indeqsebi, romlebic yovelkvartalurad da yoveldRiuradac ki adgenen qveynebis riskebs. am mxriv yvelaze cnobili

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

10

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

"beri"-is da "igri"-is indeqsebia da CvenTvisac ar unda iyos interesmoklebuli, saqarTvelo moxseniebulia rogorc Zalze maRali politikuri da ekonomikuri profilis riskebis matarebeli qveyana. 2. savaluto kursis gamyareba gacilebiT adre, martis Tvidan daiwyo. aRsaniSnavia, rom laris gamyarebis pirveli talRa bankebisaTvis met-naklebad mtkivneuli aRmoCnda. savaluto kursis gamyarebisas, maRali dolarizaciis pirobebSi bankebi iZulebuli arian sasesxebo porTfelis didi nawili kvlav ucxour valutaSi Seqmnan, radgan sxva SemTxvevaSi maT mouwevT Ria savaluto poziciebis gaxsna dadgenili normis zemoT anu ezrdebaT savaluto riskebi, romlis gadazRvevac qveyanaSi vadiani kontraqtebis bazris ar arsebobis gamo, isedac SezRudulia. 3. dRes komerciuli bankebis umravlesoba maqsimalurad cdilobs liberaluri gaxados sesxis gacemis pirobebi da arc is garemoebaa SemTxveviTi, rom swored mimdinare wlidan daiwyes bankebma aqtiurad sesxebis gacema oqrosa da sxva qonebis dagiravebis gareSe. marTalia, am saxis sesxebis sidide jer kidev mcirea da 4 aTas lars ar aRemateba, magram mcire biznesisaTvis esec SeRavaTia. bankebisaTvis aranakleb aqtualuria dakreditebis axal formebze da meTodebze gadasvla, romlebic uzrunvelyofda SedarebiT grZelvadiani da Sesabamisad didi moculobis biznes kreditebis gacemas. e.w. saproeqto dafinansebis anu inovaciuri dakreditebis politikis SemoReba kargi iqneboda. magram problema imaSia, rom am saxis dakreditebis praqtikis SemoRebisaTvis mTavar barierad qveyanaSi riskebis maRali done da maTi

modelirebis problema rCeba. marTalia, am saxis modelirebebi samive saxis scenars uSvebs ­ yvelaze uares, yvelaze ukeTes da realurs, da magram zusti bankisaTvis informacia saproeqto qveyanaSi dafinansebaze da mis gareT gadawyvetilebis mimdinare misaRebad da aucilebelia maqsimaluri ekonomikuri

politikuri xasiaTis tendenciebze.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

zemoTaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, Zalze gaZnebuli Tu SeuZlebeli ar aris prognozireba da proeqtis ukugebis zusti fasis dadgena, rac dakavSirebulia iseTi saxis gaTvlebTan rogoricaa: gamosaSvebi produqciis xasiaTi, alternatiuloba, gamoSvebis moculoba, gayidvis moculoba, xarjebis sidide, fasebi da a.S. Cvens qveyanaSi ra dasamalia da gaTvlebis gakeTeba Zalze Zneldeba rogorc saSinao politikuri situaciiT, aseve sagareo ekonomikuri da politikuri faqtorebidan da nakleb prognozirebadi momavlidan gamomdinare. 4. erovnuli bankis mier, mozidul saxsrebze fasis minimaluri daweva, rezervebis ganakveTis mkveTri wliuri Semcireba, saprocento

bankTaSorisi

sakredito

resursebis

saxazino

valdebulebebis

ganakveTebis Semcireba, upirvelesad salare depozitebTan mimarTebaSi komerciuli kreditis fasze ki aisaxa Semcirebisaken, magram nakleb gasacemi sesxebis moculobaze. bunebrivia, laris gamyarebis gamo

bankebs nakleb unda awyobdeT sesxebis gacema ucxour valutaSi, magram larebSi sesxis aReba axla Tavad klienturas uWirs. garda amisa, sakredito resursebze xelmisawvdomobis problema imiTac aris gamowveuli, rom qveyanaSi biznesis ganuviTareblobis gamo, gadaxdisunariani klienturis deficitia. biznes garemo uSualod zemoqmedebs sabanko kreditze, sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier warmoebuli kvlevebiT saqarTvelos sakredito bazarze moTxovna - miwodebas Soris sakmaod didi asimetriaa da potenciuri moTxovna 240 dan 280 milion laramdea. biznes garemoze aseve zemoqmedebs mewarmeobisaTvis xelisSemSleli sxvadasxva faqtorebi, romelTagan unda gamoiyos sagadasaxado sistemis mouwesrigebloba, maRali sagadasaxado ganakveTebi da biznesis interesebis daucveloba, romelic bolo wlebSi erTnairad zemoqmedebda da samwuxarod, dResac zemoqmedebs biznesis ganviTarebaze. 5. sabanko seqtorSi komerciuli kreditis nakleb xelmisawvdomobis gasaanalizeblad aris kidev erTi

aranakleb niSandoblivi momenti. banksa da klients Soris urTierToba wlebis manZilze yalibdeba.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

korporatiuli klienturisaTvis bankTan urTierTobis formebisa da pirobebis Secvla xSirad mtkivneulia da maT uWirT axal realiebze gadarTva. wlebis konservatizmi manZilze klienturis umravlesobisTvis sakuTari aris

damaxasiaTebeli.

klientura

romelic

bankebidan

sesxebs

biznesis

dasakrediteblad iRebda ucxour valutaSi, gaTvlebsac bazarze dolaris qcevis mixedviT akeTebda. Tavis mxriv bankebic larisadmi, rogorc dagrovebis saSualebisadmi naklebi ndobis gamo, depozitebs dolarebSi iRebdnen, rac ganapirobebda kidec sesxebis dolarizacias.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

"dolaris gaqceva" zogad makroekonomikur WrilSi

mimdinare, 2004 weli imiTac iyo aRsaniSnavi, rom mTeli wlis lari yvelaze manZilze grZeldeboda rogorc rubli) maCvenebeli laris gamyarebis aseve martsa Llaris da tendenciebi. sxva wamyvan agvistogamyarebis

400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tveebis mixedviT

saerTaSoriso rezervebi

myardeboda (evro, maRali

dolaris, mimarTebaSic. aRiniSna

valutebTan

seqtemberSi. martSi saSualo periodis ganmavlobaSi,L dolaris mimarT laris kursi 12 punqtiT gamyarda da erTi dolaris fasi larTan mimarTebaSi 2,12 niSnulidan 1,99 niSnulze davida. larma gamyareba gaagrZela Semdeg TveebSic, xolo agvisto Tvis meore naxevridan mkveTri gamyareba daiwyo ukve seqtembris pirvel dekadaSi 1,67 niSnulamdec ki davida, xolo saSualo periodis maCvenebliT erTi dolaris fasi 1,80 lari iyo.

2003 weli 2004 weli

laris gacvliTi kursebi

2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1 2 3 4 5 6 Tveebis mixedviT 7 8 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

procentuli cvlileba wlis dasawyisidan 18%-ia. am diagramidan naTlad Cans, rom 2004 wlis dasawyisidan laris gacvliTi kursi yvela am valutis mimarT maRldeboda. cxadia erovnuli valutis kursis aseTi cvlilebebi

dolari/lari saS.periodSi

negatiurad moqmedebs sazRvargareT da mimdinare angariSebis balansze. wamyvan valutebTan mimarTebaSi laris gamyarebis paralelurad, Zalze maRali tempebiT izrdeboda qveynis saerTaSoriso savaluto rezervebi wamyvan valutebTan

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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dolari/lari periodis bolo evro/lari peruiodis bolo evro/lari saS.periodSi

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

mimarTebaSi, romlis zrdac mkveTrad sWarbobs eqsportisa da mosaxleobis saerTaSoriso Semosavlebis savaluto zrdis rezervebi tempebs. 190-191 Tu mln. 2003 wels

100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tveebis mixedviT

sarezervo fulis struqtura

dolaris

naRdi fuli/sarezervo fulTan savaldebulo rezervebi/sarezervo fulTan Tanxebi sak. angarisebze/sarezervo fulTan

farglebSi meryeobda, 2004 wels wlis dasawyisidan agvistos

%

CaTvliT 191 mln. 953 aTasi dolaridan 343 mln. 429 aTas dolaramde anu mTeli 90%-iT gaizarda, da Tu mxedvelobaSi miviRebT sadolare seb-is strategias savaluto saxiT, igi bazarze, wlis calmxrivi bolomde

intervenciebis

gagrZeldeba.**. saerTaSoriso rezervebis zrdis yvelze maRali maCvenebeli dafiqsirda ivlis-agvistoSi. agvistoSi ivlisTan SedarebiT rezervebi gaizarda 283 mln. 957 aTasi dolaridan 343 mln. 429 aTas dolaramde anu mTeli 21 %-iT. SemTxveviTi ar aris, rom amave periodSi savaluto kursis cvlilebac wina sami Tvis SedarebiTi simSvidis Semdeg, periodis bolosaTvis 1,89 niSnulidan 1,78 niSnulamde davida. Zalze saintereso

aTasi lari

sarezervo fulis masis dinamika

800000 600000 400000 200000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tveebis mixedviT 2004 weli

suraTs iZleva sarezervo fulis struqturis analizi. MmTeli 2004 wlis manZilze grZeldeboda sarezervo fulis moculobis zrda da wlis dasawyisidan igi gaizarda 557 mln 686 aTasi laridan 747 mln. .390 aTas laramde, rac procentul gamosaxulebaSi 34%-s Seadgens.

** - seqtembris TveSi savaluto rezervebi 364 mln. 206 aTas dolaramde gaizarda.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

sarezervo fulis struqturaSi Tu naRdi fulis procentuli maCvenebeli didad ar Secvlila da farglebSi iyo, samagierod, uaryofiTi korelaciiT gamoirCeoda bankebis savaldebulo

89%-is da

rezervebisa

sakorespodento angariSebze ricxuli Tanxebis procentuli cvlilebebis dinamika. seb-is mier bankebisaTvis dadgenili savaldebulo rezervebis ganakveTis Semcirebam maisis TveSi, Sesabamisi asaxva hpova savaldebulo rezervebis sarezervo fulTan procentul SefardebaSi da maisis TvesTan SedarebiT igi Semcirda 16,3%-idan agvistoSi 10%-mde, magram savaldebulo rezervebis Semcirebis paralelurad Semcirebis nacvlad piriqiT, 2,3-jer gaizarda bankebis Tanxebi sakorespodento angariSebze maisis maCveneblis 5,5%-idan agvistoSi 12,6%-mde. es garemoeba, bankebis Warb likvidurobasTan da aqtivebis Seqmnis problemebTan erTad, kidev erTxel miuTiTebs safinanso bazrebis ganviTarebis aucileblobaze da Sida normatiuli bazis, maT Soris regulirebis normativebis gadasinjvis aucileblobze. dolaris lariT Canacvleba "aqtivebis porTfelSi" nakleb xdeboda, radgan laris gamyarebis molodini ar iyo imdenad myari, rom gaezarda larze ara mxolod saoperacio moTxovna, aramed moTxovna, rogorc aqtivze. AamasTan, dolaris kursis vardnam ganapiroba uZravi qonebis, manqanebis, da sxva aqtivebis gamyidvelebis mxridan survili, droebiT Tavi Seikavon maTi gayidvisagan. miwodebis Semcirebam da moTxovnis zrdam, sawvavisa gaZvirebis fonze, ganapiroba kidec dolarebSi fasebis zrda manqanebze da uZrav

qonebaze. arasworad migvaCnia mosazreba, romlis mixedviTac wlis ganmavlobaSi savaluto ryevebi SemTxveviTi movlenaa da gamowveulia wonasworobis droebiTi darRveviT. radgan: dolaris vardnam garkveul etapze gamoiwvia "dolarisagan gaqcevis" efeqti. mosaxleobis aqtivobis

porTfelSi" dolars, rogorc stabilur valutas, mniSvnelovani adgili eWira da iyo "Rirebulebis Senaxvis saSualeba". dolaris kursis vardnam warmoqmna ganwyoba, rom "porTfelis" Semadgenlobis da riskebis optimizaciis mizniT dolari Caanacvlon sxva aqtivebiT (binebiT, manqanebiT, sxva Zvirad Rirebuli saqonliT).

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

ekonomikis legalizaciis procesis dros ekonomika gadadis funqcionirebis axal reJimSi, romelic grZeldeba garkveuli periodis, xSirad ramdenime wlis manZilze, sanam Crdilovani ekonomikis maStabebi ar Semcirdeba qveynebis misaReb parametrebze.Aamitom, samomavlo tendenciebi da SedarebiT grZelvadiani pirdapir iqneba damokidebuli imaze Tu ramdenad Seuqcevadi da Tanamimdevruli iqneba axali xelisuflebis neba

korufciasTan brZolaSi da paralelurad biznesis legalizaciis xelSewyobis mimarTulebiT. monetaruli seqtoris reagireba am tendenciebze gamovlinda imaSi, rom mimdinare wlis ianvridan

seqtembramde, dolaris kursi TandaTan Camovida 2,12-dan 1,7­mde. 9 seqtembers, saqarTvelos parlamentSi, safinanso - sabiujeto ofisSi am sakiTxis saparlamento ganxilvis dRes imdenad daeca, rom birJaze vaWroba SeCerda, xolo seb-i iZulebuli gaxda xelovnurad gaemyarebina dolari da 9 setembridan 3 dRis intervalSi misi kursi sakmaod didi diapazoniT, sawyis niSnuls 1,87 daubrunda.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

daskvnebi da Sefasebebi

saerTaSoriso praqtika cxadyofs, rom inflaciis "moTokvis" Semdeg, aucilebeli xdeba samomxmareblo moTxovnis "aSveba", miT umetes iseT qveynebSi rogoric saqarTveloa, sadac mTavari problema safinanso bazris stabilizaciis Semdeg dasaqmebisa da ekonomikis stimulirebis amocanebi dgeba, radgan rogorc wesi,

antiinflaciuri monetaruli politika xels uSlis ekonomikur zrdas. ekonomikuri zrdaze orientirebuli politika atarebs ara antiiflaciur xasiaTs, aramed fulis masis stimulirebazea agebuli. Sesabamisad, monetaruli politika ar SeiZleba iyos erTidaigive ekonomikis vardnisa da zrdis fazebSi., radgan vardnis fazaSi inflacia gamowveulia sasaqonlo masis SemcirebiT da dausaqonlebeli fulis siWarbiT. magaliTad CvenTan M2­is multiplikatoris Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan gasuli wlis monacemebiT 6%-iyo, wels mSpis saprognozo maCvenebliT ukeTes SemTxvevaSi maqsimum 8%Ggaxdes da maSin, rodesac saSualo evropuli maCvenebeli 35%-s sWarbobs meore mniSvnelovani problema, es aris ekonomikis Crdilovani seqtoris maRali xvedriTo wili, ris Sedegadac erovnuli bankis mier fulis masis kontroli nakleb efeqturia da rogorc vnaxeT, savaldebulo sarezervo ganakveTebis Semcirebis paralelurad, bankebis gamoTavisuflebuli Tanxebi aqtivebSi ki ar miemarTeba, aramed Warbi likvidurobis maCvenebeli xdeba Manu fulad-sakredito politikis es istrumenti, praqtikulad ar muSaobs. magram problema is aris, rom arc sxva istrumentebi iZlevian efeqts, es exeba rogorc repo operaciebs, aseve saaRricxvo ganakveTebis regulirebas. is garemoeba, rom dolarizacia Semcirda 86%-idan 77%-mde, xolo fulis masa gaizarda mSp-is 8%-mde, sakmarisi ar aris sistemuri transformaciis TvalsazrisiT. SemTxveviT ar aris, rom seb-i akontrolebs mxolod laris mimoqcevis seqtors da isic naklebefeqturad, radgan sabanko sistema SezRudulia bazarze operirebisagan, xolo fulis multiplikatori mcirea (M2­is multiplikatori aris 0,91). SemTxveviTi ar aris, rom bankebis aqtivebis Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi Zalze dabal

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

maCvenebelzea (16%), rac 10-15 jer mainc CamorCeba sasurvel dones. evrokavSiris qveynebisaTvis analogiuri maCvenebeli 200 %-s aRemateba, xolo aRmosavleT evropis qveynebSi 60 %-s. magaliTisaTvis Tu ungreTSi 70 %-ia, CexeTSi misi maCvenebeli 150 %-.is farglebSia. marTalia, ekonomikisaTvis eqsport-importis procentuli wilis zrda mTlian Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi dadebiT movlenad iTvleba, magram ara sagareo savaWro balansis gauaresebis xarjze. dolaris masa, romelic qveyanaSi Semoedineba da gaiwovs mzard imports, damokidebulia ucxoeTidan gzavnilebze da eqsportze (maT Soris, kontrabanduli) da nakleb erovnul bankze. aqedan

gamomdinare, am gziT Semosuli dolaris didi nawili aseve ukontrolod gadis qveynidan da xmardeba savaWro deficitis dafinansebas (maT Soris, kontrabanduli importisa). erovnuli bankis mier fulis miwodebis kontroli nakleb efeqturia, radgan ver xerxdeba wina sakriziso situaciebis gaTvlis SedarebiT zusti analizi da Sesabamisad, sakmaod didi danaxarjebiT (sabanko sistemisaTvis zaraliT) miiRweva kursis grZelvadiani

Semcirebis an zrdis tendenciebis SenarCuneba. Seqmnili situacia imiTac aris niSandoblivi, rom mimdinareobs laris gamyarebis tendenciebi, rac fiskaluri disciplinis zrdisa da ucxouri nakadebis mosalodneli zrdis fonze, rac aseve dakavSirebuli iqneba didi privatizaciis dawyebasTan da sxva saerTaSoriso proeqtebTan, momaval wlebSi kidev ufro TvalSisacemi unda gaxdes. aseTi scenaris daSvebisas ekonomikuri subieqtebis mxridan mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba larze moTxovna. sul ufro mzardi salare masis larze moTxovnis zrdis

pirobebSi wina planze gamodis salare masis zrdis amocanis gadawyveta. Seqmnil situaciaSi bankebisaTvis problemebi SeiZleba warmoiqmnas rogorc moziduli saxsrebis dolarizaciis gamo, aseve savaluto kursis gamyarebis TvalsazrisiTac. moziduli saxsrebis udidesi nawili kvlav ucxour valutaSia deponirebuli, rac salare depozotebs TiTqmis xuTjer da metadac ki aRemateba. garda amisa moziduli saxsrebis udidesi nawilis ucxour valutaSi deponirebis gamo, sakredito bazris ganuviTarebloba da moqmedi ekonomikuri limitebi da normativebi mzardi konkurenciis pirobebSi, seriozulad zRudavs bankebis unars sakredito politikis

warmarTvaze misi gaiafebis TvalsazrisiT. igi saboloo jamSi aseve aZvirebs sakredito resursebis fass da saprocento marJis mosalodneli Semcirebisas bankebs aranaklebi problemebi eqmnebaT. miuxedavad imisa, rom

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

moziduli saxsrebis im nawilze romlebic saerTaSoriso sakredito resursebs warmoadgenen, savaldebulo rezervebis formirebis wesi ar moqmedebs. amdenad, bankebi iZulebuli arian sasesxebo porTfelis didi nawili kvlav ucxour valutaSi Seqmnan, radgan sxva SemTxvevaSi maT mouwevT "Ria savaluto poziciebis" gaxsna dadgenili normis zemoT anu ezrdebaT savaluto riskebi, romlis gadazRvevac qveyanaSi vadiani kontraqtebis bazris ar arsebobis gamo, isedac SezRudulia. qveynis winapirobebs ekonomikuri grZelvadiani bloki dgas arCevanis winaSe. arsebuli rac aris realoba swored xval legalizaciisa da

dedolarizaciis procesebis damabrkolebel faqtoradac ki SeiZleba gadaiqces, da rac mTavaria ar qmnis molodinebis CamoyalibebisaTvis, dedolarizaciis procesis mniSvnelovani faqtori. am axal strategiaSi wina planze sabanko seqtoris institucionaluri reformireba unda igulisxmebodes samomxmareblo moTxovnis etapobrivi "aSvebiT" da ara fulis masis gareT "gadmotyorcna". sistemur reformirebaSi sakredito bazris segmenturi gafarToeba da sakanonmdeblo bazis srulyofa miiCneva. Sesabamis sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebs moiTxovs, rogorc moqmedi sabanko kanonmdebloba, aseve gadasasinjia sabanko seqtoris regulirebis Sida normatiuli dokumentebi, gansakuTrebiT riskebis modelirebis nawilSi da rasac detalurad moxsenebis me-3 TavSi SevexebiT. Cvens mier gakeTebuli saeqsperto gaTvlebiT mSp-is zrda momaval wlebSi upirvelesad, ganpirobebuli iqneba ekonomikis ciklurobis gamo. 1999 wlidan 2003 wlamde qveynis ekonomika 1995-1999 wlebis pirobiTi

aRmavlobis Semdeg, dacemisa da stagnaciis fazaSi imyofeboda. Eekonomikis zrda kvlav daiwyo 2003 wlidan, rodesac wliuri mSp-is zrdis maCvenebelma 9 % Seadgina. aRsaniSnavia, rom wlevandeli mSp-is zrdis maCvenebelic 9-9,5 %-is farglebSia navaraudebi. Ees erTi SexedviT sakmaod karg maCveneblad unda CaiTvalos, radgan 2003 weli revoluciuri weli ufro iyo. KkerZod, agvistos Tvidan anu vardebis revoluciis wina periodidan politikuri ryeveis amplituda noembris cnobili movlenebis Semdgomac grZeldeboda da TbilisSi xelisuflebis Secvlis pararelurad, aWaraSi saxelisuflebo cvlilebebis periodma 2004 wlis pirveli naxevari moicva. Mmagram, momaval

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

2005-2007 wlebSi mSp-is zrda ganpirobebuli iqneba

mxolod politikuri riskebis Semcirebisa da biznesgaremos

gaumjobesebis SemTxvevaSi da rac pirdapir aisaxeba investiciebisa da moxmarebis zrdaze. es gansakuTrebiT investiciebze iTqmis. sxva SemTxvevaSi Tu kvlav gagrZelda garigebiT samarTalze apelireba politikurad motivirebuli marTlsajulebis elementebiT, ekonomikis zrdis cikli 2005 welsve dasruldeba. niSandoblivia, rom qveynis sainvesticio cikli mxolod axla iwyebs Tavis fazaSi Sesvlas. Tu gasul wlebSi qveyanaSi Semosuli ucxouri investiciebis didi nawili Tbilisi-baqo-jeixanis navTobsadenTan iyo dakavSirebuli, ekonomikis

saministros mier dawyebuli "didi privatizacia" normalur pirobebSi aucileblad aisaxeba qveyanaSi kerZo investiciebis zrdis dinamikaze. mSp-is zrdaze gavlenas moaxdens ekonomikis legalizebac. EeqspertTa mier 2003 wlis Sedegebis Sefasebisas mSp-is 55 %-meti ekonomikis Crdilovan seqtorze modioda, rac 4 mlrd. Llars Seadgens. normaluri ekonomikuri politikis gatarebis pirobebSi ekonomikis administrirebis gaumjobesebasTan erTad, misi Semdgomi legalizacia pirdapir aisaxeboda sabiujeto Semosavlebis zrdis maCvenebelze. sakmaod realuria biujetis saSemosavlo nawili 2006-2007 wlebSi 3 mlrd. laramde gaizados, miT umetes sxva Tanabar pirobebSi biujetis optimaluri maCvenebeli 4 mlrd. lars utoldeba. sabiujeto Semosavlebis zrda, mSp-is zrdasTan erTad asaxvas hpovebs mosaxleobis Semosavlebis zrdaSic. magram aq gasaTvaliswinebelia ramdenime mniSvnelovani garemoeba. 1. sabiujeto Semosavlebis zrdas Tu erTis mxriv administrirebis gaumjobesebam da aWaris erTian qarTul iuridiul sivrceSi Semosvlam Seuwyo xeli, rac dadebiT movlenad unda miviCnioT, meores mxriv biujetSi mTeli wlis ganmavlobaSi xdeboda e.w. daWerebis muxliT manipulireba. Ffaqtiurad, qveynis ekonomikuri politika qmnis did saSiSroebas ekonomikuri reketis tendenciebis gaRrmavebisaken. amasTan igi negatiurad moqmedebs qveynis saerTaSoriso imijze, rasac adasturebs evrosabWos monitoringis jgufis Sefasebebi saqarTveloSi "garigebiTi samarTlis" damkvidrebuli praqtikis arasamarTlebriv da miuRebel aspeqtebze da afrTxobs normalur investors, romelsac ki qveyanaSi kapitalis dabandeba SeiZleba surdes. Tu es tendencia gaRrmavda, aq kapitalis dabandeba

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

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mxolod xelisuflebasTan daaxloebul jgufebs Tu SeeZlebaT, rac SevardnaZiseuli ekonomikuri politikis nairsaxeobad unda moinaTlos. 2. uaxloes wlebSi xelisuflebis mier deklarirebuli principebidan socialuri sfero prioritetulad aris miCneuli, magram nakleb moicavs saxelfaso da sapensio reformas. Tu 2003 wlmde saqarTveloSi saSualo xelfasi Seadgenda 50 lars, 2005 wlidan 115 laramdea gazrdili. magram aqac ramdenime momentia. gamosayofi. xelfasebis zrda sabiujeto organizaciebSi dasaqmebuli personalis masiuri daTxovnis da Sesabamisad, gamoTavisuflebuli Tanxebis darCenilebze

gadanawilebiT ufro miiRweva, vidre sabiujeto Semosavlebis realurad zrdis xarjze. Amas emateba sabiujeto organizaciebis nawilSi e. w. soroSis xelfasic(daxmarebis es muxli soroSis fondis mier gamoyofil TanxebTan erTad moicavs sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso (gaero, msoflio banki) da adgilobrivi organizaciebis daxmarebas, romelic xelfasTan erTad eZlevaT. Aamdenad, Semdgom wlebSi misi zrda aseTive TvalsaCino ver iqneba da ukeTes SemTxvevaSi mSp-is zrdis optimistur prognozze dayrdnobiT 5-7 %-is farglebSi unda iyos. 3. rac Seexeba sapensio ukve reformas. wels Ggasul daiwyo wlebSi dagrovili zrda, sapensio magram davalianebeis dafarvis dovlaTis kvalobaze, mimdinare pensiebis sazogadoebrivi

samarTlianad gadanawilebis TvalsazrisiT, sapensio reformis Semdgomi warmateba uSualod iqneba damokidebuli sapensio fondebis gamarTul saqmianobaze da maT integraciaze safondo bazarTan. yovel SemTxvevaSi, gaizrdeba socialuri xarjebis xvedriTi wili mSp-sTan mimarTebaSi. Tu 2003 wlamde igi 4 %-s ar aRemateboda da saSualo evropuli parametrebiT Zalze dabali iyo, momaval wlebSi misi maCvenebeli ukeTes SemTxvevaSi 7-8 %-mde Tu ava. magaliTisaTvis bulgareTSi misi maCvenebeli 20 %-ia, CexeTSi-11 %, poloneTSi-17 %, xolo baltiis saxelmwifoebSi 10 %-is

farglebSia. amdenad, gazrdili socialuri xarjebi mzardi ekonomikis pirobebSi kidev ufro gazrdis moTxovnas fulze.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

ÈÀÅÉ II politikuri xasiaTis riskebis Sefasebisa da definiciis problemebi.

unda aRiniSnos, rom politikuri riskebis Seswavla da misi zemoqmedeba safinanso seqtorebze seriozulad mxolod gasuli saukunis bolos daiwyo. gasuli saukunis 80-iani wlebis dasawyisamde problemis sirTulisa da safinanso analizis meTodologiebis arasrulfasovnebis gamo, politikuri riskebi qveynis saerTo riskis metad nawilad ganixileboda, xolo politikuri riskebis prognozirebis SesaZleblobebisadmi damokidebuleba

skeptikuri rCeboda. riskis mcneba Tanamedrove msoflioSi dakavSirebulia rogorc adamianis moRvaweobisa da warmatebis sakvanZo faqtorTan. riskis gafarToebuli gansazRvra identificirdeba sistemis ganviTarebis zusti prognozirebis optimaluri veqtoris gansazRvris SesaZl;eblobasTan, rac Tavis TavSi atarebs rogorc

negatiuri, aseve pozitiuri SesaZleblobebis arsebobas. dRes qveynis riskis gansazRvra dakavSirebulia politikaSi da ekonomikaSi gadawyvetilebebis miRebasTan. am saxis gadawyvetilebis miReba sWirdeba, upirvelesad investors raTa gaarkvios uRirs Tu ara am qveyanaSi Tanxebis Cadeba. Sida ekonomikuri faqtorebis analizi saSualebas iZleva zogadad daxasiaTdes qveynis ekonomikuri

ganviTarebis tendenciebi da gamoiyos SedarebiT mgrZnobiare sferoebi. "Ria ekonomikis" pirobebSi sagareo faqtorebi piradpir zemoqmedeben da gansazRvraven sagareo SezRudvebis gavlenis xarisxs Sida ekonomikur situaciebze. damokidebulkebis maRali xarisxi sagareo valis sidide zrdis sainvesticio politikaSi mTavrobis Carevis albaTobebs. amasTan, sagareo politikuri mdgomareoba Tavisuflad SeiZleba gaxdes qveynis politikuri arastabilurobis katalizatori. politikuri riskebis analizisa da Sefasebis TiToeul models aqvs garkveuli upiratesoba da nakli. eqspertul sistemebs xSirad akritikeben imis gamo, rom maTSi naTlad ar Cans mizez Sedegobrivi kavSiris urTierTobebi.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

zogadad qveynis riskis farglebSi ganasxvaveben politikur da komerciul riskebs. es ukanaskneli iyofa gavlenis doneebis mixedviT: 1. saxelmwifo doneze ­ gadaxdisunarianobis valdebulebebi riski (sovereingn risk), 2. kompaniis romelic doneze-

asocirebulia

ucxouri

kreditori

qveynebisaTvis

aRebuli

gadaxdaze

transfertuli riski (Transfer risk) anu riski imisa, rom ekonomikuri politikis gatarebisas romelime qveyanam SeiZleba SemoiRos SezRudvebi ucxouri kreditorebisa da investorebisaTvis kapitalis gadadinebis TvalsazrisiT.

qveynis riski

komerciuli riski

politikuri

riski

gadaxdisuunarobis riski

satransferto riski

makro riski

mikro riski

termini "politikuri riskis" mniSvneloba sakmaod farToa politikuri stabilurobis prognozirebidan, yvela arakomerciuli riskis Sefasebamde, qveS sxvadasxva am sityvis socialur viwro da politikur sferoebSi moRvaweobasTan danakargebis faqtorebis

dakavSirebiT. SesaZlebloba,

politikuri romelic

riskis

gagebiT

igulisxmeba

finansuri politikuri

warmoiSveba

romelime

kompaniisaTvis,

arakeTilsaimedo

zemoqmedebis Sedegad.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

mkvlevarTa nawili politikur risks gansazRvravs rogorc "nacionaluri mTavrobis moqmedebas, romelic xels uSlis saqmiani operaciebis Catarebas, calmxrivad cvlis SeTanxmebis pirobebs an iwvevs ucxouri

kompaniebis sakuTrebis konfiskacias". faqtorebis daTanxmad politikuri

arsebobs ufro farTo riski SeiZleba

ganmartebebic, romlebic iTvaliswineben ara rogorc qveynis Sida da saerTaSoriso

mxolod qveyanaSi mimdinare Sida politikur procesebs, aramed saerTaSoriso politikur situaciasac. am ganisazRvros

konfliqturi da integraciuli movlenebi da procesebi, romlebsac SeuZliaT (an ar SeuZliaT) migviyvanon saxelisuflebo cvlilebebTan qveynis SigniT da gareT da romelic uSualod aisaxeba kompaniebis saqmianobaze ­ arasasurveli pirobebis SeqmnaSi an damatebiTi SesaZleblobebis gaCenaSi. saqmiani faqtorebiT operaciebis ar aris warmoeba sazRvargareT mxolod im xarisxiT, romliTac SeuZliaT is ganisazRvreba an politikuri miayenon damokidebuli riskebze, romlebsac daangrion ziani

molodins. biznesSi msxvili warmoebis dagegmva Cveulebriv miiRweva ar mxolod riskis gansazRvris da Tavidan acilebis gziT, aramed politikuri SesaZleblobebis ganWvretis gziTac. investorebisaTvis, romlebic iReben gadawyvetilebebs ganaTavson Tu ara investicia ama Tu im qveyanaSi, damokidebulia politikuri stabilurobis perspeqtivaze, romelic xels uwyobs ekonomikur investori zrdas SeiZleba da iseve mniSvnelovania, wamgebian rogorc politikuri Caayenos. arastabilurobis daSveba, romelmac ukiduresad mdgomareobaSi

politikuri riskebis eqspertebis umravlesoba emxroba im mosazrebebs, rom politikuri movlena aucileblad ar atarebs risks biznesisaTvis, is SeiZleba piriqiT momgebianic ki iyos politikuri riskis qveS axali SesaZleblobebis warmoqmnis gamo.

igulisxmeba "im garemos gaurkvevloba, riTac moqmedeben arasabazro Zalebi". es ki

niSnavs, rom politikur riskSi gaerTiandeba rogorc negatiuri, aseve pozitiuri cvlilebebic. politikuri riskebis klasifikacia xorcieldeba movlenaTa dayofis safuZvelze, romlebic warmoiqmneba garkveuli saxis politikis gatarebis dros xelisuflebis mier an arakontrolirebadi Zalebis mier. am principebTan mimarTebaSi eqspertebis mier dRes sul ufro popularuli xdeba politikuri riskis dayofa eqstralegalur da legalur-samTavrobo riskad.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

eqstra-legaluri riski

makro riski mikro riski revolucia terorizmi

legalur-samTavrobo riski

sainvesticio kanonmdeblobis cvlileba savaWro regulirebis cvlileba

legalur-samTavrobo riski warmodgens mimdinare politikuri procesis piradapir produqts da moicavs iseT movlenebs, rogoricaa demokratiuli arCevnebi, rasac moyavs xelisuflebaSi axali Zalebi da sakanonmdeblo xasiaTis cvlilebebi, romlebic exeba biznesis warmoebas, dasaqmebas, fulad politikas da a.S. politikuri riskebis Sefasebis meTodebidan SedarebiT popularulia Delphi-s meTodi, romelic sistemur xarisxobrivia. pirvel etapze eqspertuli Sefaseba emyareba cvladebis sistemas konkretuli SemTxvevisaTvis., xolo Semdeg xdeba eqspertebis farTo monawileoba TiToeuli cvladis mniSvnelobis gansazRvrisaTvis. xarisxobrivi SemTxvevaSi ucxouri meTodi iZleva konkretuli yuradRebiT situaciis ganxilva, specifikis romlebic gansazRvris gansazRvraven miRebisas saSualebas. situacias savalalo zogierT SeiZleba rolic ki

specifiuri

elementebis Zvelma

gacilebiT mniSvnelovani iyos, vidre maTi raodenobrivi gansazRvra. Tumca es meTodi mainc Zalze subieqturia. sazogadoebis stereotipebma SesaZloa gadawyvetilebis Seasrulon. makro-politikuri da ekonomikuri riskebis formalizaciam da modelirebam farTo ganviTareba gasuli saukunis 70-ian wlebSi hpova. ganviTarebuli qveynebis sagareo valebis zrdam gamoiwvia e.w. gadaxdisuunarobis problemis mimarT gazrdili interesi. am saxis riskebis specifiurobam gamoiwvia makroekonomikuri monacemebis sistemuri analizis aucilebloba, TumcaRa aRiarebuli iqna damatebiT zogierTi subieqturi faqtoris CarTvis aucileblobac. riskis Sefasebis raodenobrivi meTodi iZleva riskis xarisxis mixedviT sxvadasxva qveynebis Sefasebis saSualebebs, riskis faqtoris erTiani ricxobrivi faqtorebis gamoyenebiT, romlebic axdenen socialur-

politikuri faqtorebis SefasebiT sxvadasxva politikuri da socialuri indikatorebis saSualebiT.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

raodenobrivi meTodis mTavari nakli aris politikuri riskis viwro gansazRvra da qveriskebis SezRudul raodenobaze koncetrireba, rogoricaa magaliTad politikuri arastabiluroba, savaluto kontroli da

eqspopriacia. politikuri riskebis sruli sia ucxour investiciebze potenciuri gavlenis sxvadasxva xarisxiT gacilebiT farToa da moicavs politikur, kulturul da eTno-fsiqologiuro xasiaTis ramdenime areals. amitom am faqtorebis SerCeva da maTi SedarebiTi wilis gansazRvra problemas. sxva problema aris is, rom riskebis Skalis saerTaSoriso SedarebisaTvis gamoyenebis cda xSirad winaaRmdegomaSi modis ekonomikis dargobrivi maCveneblebis gansazRvris mixedviT. magaliTad mompovebeli dargebi gacilebiT met eqspopriacias ganicdian, vidre maRali teqnoligiuri warmoebis dargebi. ufro metic, ekonomikis dargebis umravlesobisaTvis riskebis faqtorebi (politikuri arastabiluroba) sxva dargisaTvis SeiZleba damatebiTi SesaZleblobebis faqtoric ki gaxdes. amis magaliTia samxedro-sawarmoo kompleqsi. mag. mimdinare omi eraySi amerikis samxedro-samrewvelo kompleqsisaTvis aris axali saxelmwifo SekveTebis. warmoadgens raodenobrivi meTodis mTavar

mravalmiliardiani, upirvelesad, SeiaraRebis axali teqnologiebis SemuSavebisa da danergvis Skalis gamoyenebis SesaZlebloba, qveynis riskis gansazRvrisaTvis mainc SezRudulia. riskebis gansazRvris xelSemwyobi da damabrkolebeli tendenciebis adreuli

programa.

gamomdinare iqidan, rom qveynebi investorebisaTvis gansxvavebuli riskebis matareblebi arian, raodenobrivi

gamomJRavnebisaTvis

gamoiyeneba agregirebuli statistikuri monacemebis meTodi. eqspertuli Sefasebebis gverdiT, Sida politikuri aramdgradobis, rogorc politikuri riskis ZiriTadi faqtoris gamosarkvevad iyeneben ekonometrul modelirebas. mas safuZvlad udevs mravlobiTi regresiis gantolebebi. am saxis modelebSi politikuri arastabiluroba ganixileba rogorc romelime qveynis politikuri movlena, romelic xasiaTdeba Zaladobis elementebis farTo gamoyenebiT ­ mTavrobis winaaRmdeg SeTqmulebebis, gadatrialebis an misi mcdelobebis, samoqalaqo omebis, erovnebaTSorisi konfliqtebis da a.S. saxiT. amave dros ganasxvaveben arastabilurobas Tavad mmarTvel ZalebSi, rac dakavSirebulia ZalauflebisaTvis brZolasTan

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

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Association of Banks of Georgia

mmarTveli Zalis SigniT da socialur arastabilurobas, romelic warmoiqmneba opoziciuri social-politikuri Zalebis aqtiuri moRvaweobis Sedegad. korporaciis doneze riskis xarisxis gansazRvra sxva araferia Tu ara sainvesticio SeTavazebisas garemos politikuri riskis raodenobrivi aRwera. eqstensiuri modelis magaliTs warmoadgens ESP (Economic Social and Political System) Sedgenili Dow Chemical ­ mier Tavisi operaciebisaTvis laTinuri amerikis qveynebisaTvis. es meTodi gulisxmobs garkveuli qveynis irgvliv informaciis winaswar Sefasebas am qveyanaSi moRvawe eqspertebis doneze, interviuebis saSualebiT informaciis verificirebas am qveyanaSi firmis ganyofilebis TanamSromlebTan da adgilobriv liderebTan. amis Semdeg eqspertebis mier xdeba am informaciis saboloo sistemizacia da analizi, movlenaTa SesaZlo ganviTarebis scenarebis mixedviT. am meTodis upiratesoba imaSia, rom igi specialurad aris SemuSavebuli kompaniis konkretuli miznebisaTvis da analizisaTvis iwvevs rogorc kompaniis rigiT TanamSromlebs, aseve umaRles mmarTvel pirebsac, rac saboloo jamSi gaTvlebis sakmaod maRali albaTobebiT gamoirCeva. miuxedavad amisa, es meTodi sakmaod Zviria da misi analizi did droSia gawelili. gasuli saukunis 80-ian wlebamde ekonomikuri da teqnikuri sferoebi ganixileboda, rogorc metad

mniSvnelovani da biznesze meti gavlenis mqone, vidre politikuri da socialuri. politikuri da socialuri mxare iTvleboda rTul da arastruqturizirebul elementebad, romlebic prognozirebas da analizs nakleb eqvemdebarebodnen. iTvleboda, rom qveynis socialur-politikur ganviTarebaze zemoqmedeba SeuZlebelia da reagireba mxolod postfaqtum aris SesaZlebeli. am tendenciis gadaxedva gamoiwvia gasuli saukunis bolos msoflioSi mimdinare safinanso da savaluto krizisebma, ramac Tavis mxriv saTave daudo sxvadasxva saxis socialuri indikatorebis SemuSavebas. am indikatorebis gamoyeneba SesaZlebeli gaxda iseT farTod

gavrcelebul ekonomikur parametrebTan mimarTebaSi rogoricaa erTiani Sida produqti da samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

materialuri resursebi

kapitali SromiTi resursebi profesiuli Cvevevi marTvis kultura teqnologia bunebrivi resursebi

ekonomikuri tendenciebi

erTiani erovnuli produqtis zrda inflacia fulis miwodeba sagadmxdelo balansi danazogebis norma invesiticiebis norma dasqmebis done saprocento ganakveTebi importis dafarva saerTo valis Sefardeba eSp-Tan sagareo valis momsaxurebis koeficienti

mTavrobis politika

miznebi safinanso politika fuladi politika samrewvelo politika dasaqmebis politika savaWro politika sainvesticio politika sagareo politika sagadasaxado politika administrirebis politika

socialur-politikuri faqtorebi

miznebi safinanso politika fuladi politika samrewvelo politika dasqmebis politika savaWro politika sainvesticio politika

saerTaSoriso faqtorebi

geopolitika fasebi navTobze fasebi saqonelze savaluto kursi saprocento ganakveTebi inflacia savaWro tendenciebi

rogorc

warmodgenili

sqemidan

Cans,

qveynis

politikuri

riskebis

dinamikaze

da

struqturaze

seriozuli zegavlenis moxdena xelisuflebis gadawyvetilebebTan erTad, gare faqtorebsac SeuZliaT. gare faqtorebidan aRsaniSnavia geopolitikuri faqtorebi, romlebic regionaluri TvalsazrisiT, pirdapir da iribad zemoqmedeben qveynis biznesgaremoze. saerTaSoriso eqspertebi sul ufro ixrebian im Tvalsazrisisaken, rom

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

ukrainaSi

ganviTarebuli

politikuri

procesebi

ara

mxolod

Savi

zRvis

regionis

qveynebisaTvis

iqneba

mniSvnelovani, aramed uaxloesi oTxi wlis periodSi rusuli politikuri sivrcis "gademokratiulobisaken" iqneba mimarTuli. am procesebis alternativad ruseTsa da danarCen mxoflios Soris "rkinis fardis" CamoSvebis perspeqtiva moCans, rac nakleb savaraudod unda miviCnioT. ruseTi dRes kidev ufro aris damokidebuli danarCen msoflioze, vidre odesme yofila. ruseTis politikur gadawyvetilebeze mniSvnelovnad imoqmedebs am wlebSi navTobze fasebis mosalodneli stabilizacia, misi Semcirebis mimarTulebiT, radgan msoflio bankis monacemebiT navTobmatareblebi ruseTis mTliani Sida produqtis 25 %-ze mets Seadgens. sxva faqtorebidan unda gamoiyos socialuri araerTgvarovnebis faqtori. masSi moiazreba sxvadasxva eTniuri, religiuri da regionaluri jgufebi. sazogadoebis dayofa xdeba im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac yvela aRniSnuli jgufi garkveulwilad warmoadgens dabal an uRaribes fenas, rac mniSvnelovnad zrdis politikur arastabilurobis saerTo fons am jgufebze garedan zegavlenis moxdenis TvalsazrisiT. Semosavlebis ganawileba aCvenebs ekonomikuri jgufebis araTanabar ganviTarebas sazogadoebaSi da rac ufro maRalia es dayofa miT ufro maRalia politikuri arastabilurobis SesaZlebloba. amitom SemTxveviTi ar aris, rom permanentuli saxelmwifo gadatrialebebi ZiriTadad am tipis qveynebSi xdeba. afrikisa da samxreT amerikis saxelmwifoebi amis klasikuri magaliTebi arian. Tu saqarTvelo uaxloes wlebSi ar daiwyebs ekonomikuri ganviTarebis axal etapze gadasvlas da ver SevZlebT evrokavSirSi integracias Cvenc am tipis qveynad Camoyalibeba gvemuqreba. mecnierebi gamoyofen politikuri riskebis ramdenime tips: · · · · avtoritarul-tradiciuli (monarqia an samxedro diqtatura); avtoritarul-mobilizaciuri (totalitarizmi); liberalur-demokratiuli (saparlamento an saprezidento mmarTveloba); axali damoukidebeli saxelmwifoebi (yofili koloniebi)

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

30

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

aq CamoTvlili tipebidan gacilebiT stabiluri meore da mesame jgufebia. xolo pirveli meoTxesTan SedarebiT ufro stabiluria. politikuri riskebis TvalsazrisiT ukiduresad arastabilurad ganixileba is sistema, sadac samxedroebs aqvT saSualeba xelisuflebis SecvlisaTvis. aq nakleb gamodgeba TurqeTis an israelis magaliTi, radgan aRniSnuli qveynebi ar ganekuTvnebian kolonialuri tipis an ganviTarebad qveynebs da maT gasamxedroebul statuss istoriulad Camoyalibebuli geopolitikuri realobebi ufro gansazRvravs. qveyanaSi uaxloes warsulSi samoqalaqo omis, revoluciis, gadatrialebis mosaxleobis umravlesobis mier samTavrobo gankargulebebisa da dekretebis precedentebis arseboba qmnis Sesrulebaze mzadyofnas da

winapirobebs samomavlod legitimaciis tendenciebis gasaTvlelad. mmarTveli elitis legitimuroba gulisxmobs samarTalmorCilebis imunitetis Camoyalibebas. sapirispiro tendenciebis arseboba da xelisuflebis mxridan mosaxleobis tendenciebs. nebaze Zaladobis maRali maCvenebeli (represiebi) aZlierebs politikuri arastabilurobis

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

daskvnebi da Sefasebebi

politikuri riskebis analizis mniSvneloba saqarTvelosaTvis ganuzomelia. saqarTvelos sxva qveynebis msgavsad axasiaTebs Taviseburi specifika. pirvel rigSi saxelmwifoebrivi azrovnebis arasrulyofili done, rac dakavSirebuli iyo 18 saukunis dasawyisSi damoukideblobis dakargvasTan da politikuri pluralizmis

tradiciis deficitTan. demokratiuli institutebis arasrulyofilebam da saxelmwifo institutebis sisustem, ukanasknel aTwleulSi, damoukideblobis mopovebis Semdgomi periodSi pirovnebis faqtoris prioritetebi ganapiroba, rac Sesabamisad politikur WrilSi e. w. qarizmatuli liderebis arCevans daukavSirda. pirovnul faqtors saqarTveloSi kidev didxans eqneba prioriteti. meore es aris politikur-teritoriuli faqtorebi, romlebic erTis mxriv dakavSirebulia qveynis teritoriuli mTlianobis darRvevasTan da meores mxriv,

gansxvavebul ekonomikur potencialTan. saqarTvelo mravalerovani qveyanaa da misi mosaxleobis cnobiereba efuZneba sxvadasxva istoriul, politikur, kulturul da religiur tradiciebs. regionaluri konfliqtebi axdenen mniSvnelovan gavlenas politikur situaciaze. qveynis mosazRvre regionebSi pirdapir (afxazeTi, cxinvalis regioni) da iribad (samcxe-javaxeTi, Sida qarTli) dgas am regionebis ekonomikuri intergraciis seriozuli problemebi, radgan isini dakavSirebulia damatebiT subsidiebTan. qveynis biujeti uaxloes momavalSi dadgeba ara mxolod sagareo valebis momsaxurebis dawolis qveS, aramed aRniSnuli regionebis infrastruqturis dafinansebis mzardi xarjebis winaSe, rac sabiujeto deficitis wyaro SeiZleba gaxdes. amitom qveynis politikuri riskis gansazRvrisas unda gaviTvaliswinoT regionaluri politikis mniSvneloba da qveynis sabankosafinanso institutebis mikro da makro riskebze zemoqmedebis dinamika. iseve rogorc xSiri saxelisuflebo cvlilebebi da revoluciebi aris arasasurveli da negatiuri politikuri riskebis TvalsazrisiT, miRebuli gamocdileba SeiZleba ukve aRmoCndes dadebiTi qveynis grZelvadiani ganviTarebisa da samomavlo tenmdenciebis analizisaTvis. magaliTisaTvis SeiZleba moviyvanoT italiis gamocdileba. italiaSi gasuli saukunis 70-ian

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

32

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

wlebSi iyo periodi, rodesac qveyana korufciisa da mafiis marTvelobis qveS imyofeboda. mafiis SedarebiTi moTokva ki aRiniSna mTavrobis gadadgomaTa qronikuli serialebiT, rodesac axali mTavrobis morigi gadadgoma xSirad or-sam TveSi erTxel xdeboda. italiis magaliTi imiTac aris saintereso, rom es gamocdileba qveyanam SemdgomSi saxelmwifo institutebis gasaZliereblad da ekonomikuri aRmavlobisTvis gamoiyena. aqedan gamomdinare, mTavaria Tu rogor xdeba warsulis gamocdilebiT negativis transformacia samomavlo pozitivad. swored es formula unda iqces Cveni qveynis samomavlo politikuri gadawyvetilebebisa da qcevebis

ganmsazRvrel veqtorad, miT umetes am mimarTulebiT garkveuli gamocdileba CvenTanac dagrovda da arc Tu mcire. bolo wlebSi ruseTSi da TurqeTSi, romlebic Cveni wamyvani savaWro-paertniori qveynebi arian, ganviTarebulma krizisebma da "vardebis revoluciis" ganvlilma periodma aCvena, rom politikuri riski aris ufro gardamavali periodis riski da qveynis saerTaSoriso sistemaSi integrirebis zrdis paralelurad, sul ufro naklebad zemoqmedebs ekonomikur sistemaze.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

33

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

ÈÀÅÉ I I I kapitalis adeqvaturobaze erovnuli bankis arsebuli moTxovnis Secvlis aucilebloba

aSS-s

saerTaSoriso

ganviTarebis

saagentos

mier

dafinansebuli

proeqtebiT

saqarTveloSi

mikrodafinansebis stablizaciisa da gaumjobesebisaTvis qvyanaSi mcire sesxe arsebuli moTxovna-miwodebas Soris 2,38 mln. aSS dolariani garRveva gamovlinda. gamokvlevis konkretuli mizani iyo: mikro sawarmoTaA mflobelebis socialur-ekonomikuri profilis dadgena; oficialur da araoficialur finansur sistemaSi mcire mewarmeTa monawileobis donis Seswavla; oficialur finansur sistemaSi monawileobis ZiriTadi barierebis gamovlena; qveyanaSi mikro samewarmeo sesxebze fuladi moTxovnis Sefaseba; mikro sawarmoTa instituciuri profilis dadgena; moTxovnasa da miwodebas Soris sxvaobis dasadgenad mikro samewarmeo sesxebze Sefasebuli fuladi moTxovnis Seusrulebeli mikro samewarmeo

sesxebis moculobasTan Sedareba; mcire mewarmeTa Soris sxva oficialur finansur momsaxurebaze sabazro moTxovnis donis dadgena, magaliTad, anabarze, lizingze, dazRvevasa da sxva saxis sesxis produqtebze; biznesis zrdis potencialis da am sferoSi mcire sawarmoebs Soris barierebis Sefaseba. mcire sesxis moTxovna-miwodebas Soris arsebuli 238 mln-iani garRveva gaangariSda 2004 wlis mart-aprilSi qveynis maStabiT Catarebuli kvlevis Sedegad. gamokiTxuli iqna mikrosawarmoTa TanamSromlebi saqarTvelos 12 regionSi. gamovlinda, rom sadReisod saqarTvelos arasabanko mikrosafinanso organizaciebma da komerciulma bankebma SeZles mxolod odnav Sexebodnen mikrodafinansebis mikrosafinanso organizaciebs, maT potenciuri klienturis mxolod 31,7% moicavs da sesxze arsebuli moTxovnis mxolod 9,5%.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

34

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

amis gamomwvev SesaZlo faqtorad dasaxelda is garemoeba, rom mikrosafinanso organizacia, rogorc aseTi, saqarTveloSi 4,5 welia saqmianobs. Tumca, ori umsxvilesi arasabanko mikrosafinanso organizacia, "konstanta" da"finka" Cvens qveyanaSi ukve 6-7 welia rac saqmianoben. miuxedavad amisa, "konstantas" (7 weli) hyavs mxolod 17,792 klienti da aqvs Seusrulebeli sesxis porTfelis saxiT 5,7 mln. aSS dolari, "finkas" (6 weli) ki, 6,834 klienti Seusrulebeli porTfeliT - 3,4 mln. aSS dolari. es cifrebi imis naTel suraTs qmnis, rom qarTuli mikrosafinanso bazris aTviseba Zalian neli tempiT xdeba. Dda es maSin, rodesac am organizaciebs bankebisagan gansxvavebiT arc darezerveba gacemul sesxebze da rac sxva normativebis dacva moeTxovebaT erovnuli bankis mxridan anu maTTvis sesxis gacemis pirobebi gacilebiT gamartivebulia, xolo fasi xelmisawvdomi. miuxedavad imisa, rom sabanko seqtoris mTliani aqtivebi bolo wlebSi stabilurad 20%-iT izrdeba, xolo sakredito dabandeba 24 %-iT da stabilurad sabanko aqtivebis 55-60%-s Seadgens. sabanko seqtorSi kvlav bevria (TiTqmis naxevari) im bankebis ricxvi, romelTac sabanko seqtoris jamuri 5%-uWiravT, xolo TiToeuli am saxis bankis sidide aqtivebis 1 %-ze naklebia, rac arasasurvel sabanko koncetraciaze miuTiTebs. warmoqmnili realoba ara mxolod bankebis sakredito porTfelsa da aqtivebis Seqmnis problemaSi aisaxa, aramed sabanko kooperaciis arasasurvel doneSic. Zlieri sabanko jgufebis Seqmnis aucilebloba mxolod maSin iZens aqtualobas, rodesac axali gaerTianeba im amocanebs gadayvets, romelsac cal-calke romelime banki ver axorcielebs an misi realizacia Zviri ujdeba. saqarTvelos sabanko sistemis ganviTarebis istoriam aCvena, rom mxolod kapitalis gazrdili moTxovnis gamo bankebis Serwyma-gaerTianebas sistemuri TvalsazrisiT gadamwyveti mniSvneloba ar eniWeba. ramdenime bankis bazaze axali sabanko erTeuli formirebas maSin aqvs azri, rodesac es gaerTianeba momxmarebels SeTavazebs iseTi saxis axal produqtebs, romelzec iqneba moTxovna da Tavad SemTavazeblisaTvis ukugebis principze imuSavebs. Mmagram axali sabanko produqtebis SeTavazebiT, damatebiTi safinanso resursebis mozidva maSin iqneba mimzidveli Tu iqneba am resursebis momgebianad ganTavsebis SesaZleblobebi.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

35

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

rogorc moxsenebis pirvel TavSi aRiniSna savaldebulo rezervebis Semcirebis paralelurad Semcirebis nacvlad piriqiT, 2,3-jer gaizarda bankebis Tanxebi sakorespodento angariSebze maisis maCveneblis 5,5%-idan agvistoSi 12,6 %-mde, rac bankebis Warb likvidurobasTan da aqtivebis Seqmnis problemebTan erTad, kidev erTxel miuTiTebs safinanso bazrebis ganviTarebis aucileblobaze da Sida normatiuli bazis, maT Soris regulirebis normativebis gadasinjvis aucileblobaze. niSandoblivia, rom momaval 2005 wels orjer gazrdili biujetis saSemosavlo nawilis pirobebSi, MmTavari datvirTva legalizaciis zrdaze mova, rac imas niSnavs, rom

mniSvnelovnad gaizrdeba bankebis mimdinare angariSebi.

Tu dRes bankebs aqvT Warbi likvidurobis problema, mimdinare angariSebis moculobis zrdisas es problema kidev ufro TvalSisacemi gaxdeba da mxolod minimalur rezervebze uSvelis. saprocento piriqiT, gankveTebis aweva saqmes ver laris gamyarebis SemTxvevaSi,

16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2000 End 2001 End 2002 End 2003 End 2004/August

Spread

Net interest margin

14.70% 13.90%

9.80%

9.30% 8.20%

9.10% 7.70% 8.30%

7.70%

7.10%

dolarizirebuli ekonomikisas sabanko seqtors sakmaod mniSvnelovani zaralic ki SeiZleba miayenos, radgan

Inte rest Rate

bolo wlebis ganmavlobaSi qveyanaSi isedac aRiniSneba saprocento ganakveTebis mniSvnelovani klebis tendencia ­ gansakuTrebiT sakredito resursebze. likvidurobisa procentebis spredi. da nasesxeb bankebis Warbi gadaxdili tendenciiT ganakveTebis

25.0% 20.0% 15.0%

23.0%

21.2% 18.3% 17.7% 16.8%

saxsrebze Semcirebis saprocento

9.8% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2000 End

8.7%

8.2%

7.1%

gaTvaliswinebiT kreditis

6.2%

xasiaTdeba sabanko sistemis wminda saprocento marJa da sabanko Semcireba momaval wlebSi gagrZeldeba.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

36

2001 End

2002 End

Loans

2003 End

2004/August

Time Deposits

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

2000-Dec Leverage ROE 2.9 N/A

2001-Dec 3.2 5.1%

2002-Dec 3.5 15.3%

2003-Dec 3.8 15.0%

2004-Aug 4.1 5.9%

Cveni saprognozo gaTvlebiT uaxloes sam weliwadSi fasiani valdebulebebis saprocento ganakveTebi DdRes arsebuli 6, 2 %-idan 2007 wels 5, 7 %-mde dava, xolo sesxebis saSualo ganakveTi 16, 2 %-idan 12, 5 %-is farglebSi iqneba. am tendenciebs gaaCniaT sakmaod negatiuri efeqti momgebianobaze, kerZod, 2004 wlis agvistos mdgomareobiT sabanko sistemis momgebianoba 6%-s Seadgens, rac Zalian dabali maCvenelia. sabanko sistemis momgebianobis Semcireba dakavSirebulia saxazino valdebulebebis saSualo Sewonili ganakveTebis Semcirebis tendenciebTanac. sabanko kreditisa da sadepozito ganakveTebze fasis Semcireba ar SeiZleba ar asaxuliyo saxazino valdebulebebis fasze. Tu gasul wels saxazino valdebulebebiT saxelmwifo biujetis deficitis Sevsebis maCvenebeli 25,5 mln. lari iyo, mimdinare wlis pirvel rva TveSi misi emisia mxolod 9 mln. lars Seadgenda da samomavlodac misi moculobis zrdas nakleb unda velodoT biujetis deficitis proficitiT Secvlis pirobebSi. Msaxazino valdebulebebis saSualo Sewonili gankveTebi wlis dasawyisidan 40%-dan mkveTrad daeca da seqtembris Tvis daswyisSi misi fasi 18-21 %is faglebSi iyo. Kkidev ufro TvalSisacemia 364 dRemde dafarvis vadis saxazino valdebulebebze saprocento ganakveTebis klebis tendencia. seqtembris TveSi misi fasi 12%-mdec ki daeca. AaRsaniSnavia, rom pirvelad bazarze monawile investorTagan naxevarze mets 58%-s sabanko seqtori Seadgens. marTalia, saprocento ganakveTebis kleba dadebiTi movlenaa da minimaluri danaxarjebiT biujetis dafinansebas emsaxureba, magram misi moklevadianoba mainc TvalSisacemia. ,,mokle fulis" problema uSualod zemoqmedebs qarTuli bankebis aqtiv ­ pasivebis struqturaze da mniSvnelovnad zRudavs bazarze operirebisa da Sesabamisad, momgebianobis maCvenebels.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

37

bankebis

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

niSandoblivia,

rom

saprocento

ganakveTebis 364 dRiani saxazino valdebulebebis auqcionis saprocento ganakveTebis dinamika

Semcireba miwodebaze moTxovnis gadafarvis pirobebSi mimdinareobs da moTxovnis gadafarvis koeficienti 2,4­s udris. Ees garemoeba kidev erTxel cxadyofs bazris ganuviTareblobas saxazino da mis dabal emisiis moxdeba

30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00

kapitalizacias.

valdebulebebis

zrda mxolod maSin iqneba SesaZlebeli Tu

misi vadianobis gazrda, da rac Seqmnis winapirobebs maRallikviduri meoradi bazris Camosayalibeblad. samwuxarod, sabiujeto ganixileba ganakveTebis kapitalis saxazino valdebulebebi mosazid bazarze (repos saerTo mxolod

saprocento ganakveTi

resursebis da bazris nakleb

saSualebad saprocento da politikis

regulirebisa

ganakveTebi)

ganviTarebis

nawilad. Aam tendenciis Sedegia is, rom momavali 2005 wlis biujetSi am saxis cvlilebebi Cadebuli ar aris. saprocento Semosavlebis mniSvnelovani porfelis marJebis SemcirebiT kompensirebis bankebis gamowveuli erT-erTi (anu Semcirebis saSualeba

masStabebis

moculobebis)

zrdaa

leverejis

(aqtivebi/kapitalze) zrdis pirobebSi.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

38

10 .0 31 3.0 .0 4 14 3.0 .0 4 28 4.0 .0 4 13 4.0 .0 4 09 5.0 .0 4 23 6.0 .0 4 07 6.0 .0 4 14 7.0 .0 4 21 7.0 .0 4 28 7.0 .0 4 04 7.0 .0 4 11 8.0 .0 4 08 8.0 .0 4 15 9.0 .0 4 22 9.0 .0 4 29 9.0 .0 4 9. 04

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

rogorc vxedavT, dRes Seqmnili situacia metad damafiqrebelia, xolo sabanko seqtoris momgebianobis maCveneblis zrda sakmaod SezRudulia momqmedi kapitalis adekvaturobis regulaciiT, kerZod: o momqmedi regulacia iTvaliswinebs kapitalis adekvaturobis limitebs pirvelad kapitalze 8%-is, xolo mTlian kapitalze 12%-is odenobiT, maSin rodesac bazelis komitetis mier miRebuli regulirebiT

analogiuri maCveneblebi Seadgens 4% da 8%-s. o ucxour valutaSi nominirebuli sesxebi riskiT Sewonili aqtivebis kalkulaciisas Seiwoneba 200%-iT, maSin rodesac bazelis regilirebiT gaTvaliswinebulia - 100%. Sedegad viRebT, rom TiTqmis orjer aris gamkacrebuli ganakveTebi rogorc TviT normativebSi, aseve Sewonvis koeficientSi. Tuki Cven gavakeTebT martiv modelirebas, vnaxavT rom aqtivebis normaluri ganawilebis SemTxvevaSi maqsimaluri levereji SeiZleba aRwevdes mxolod 6%-s, xolo sabanko sistemis faqtiuri levereji ki mxolod 4%-s Seadgens, maSin rodesac aRmosavleT evropis qveynebSi saSualod leveriJis maCvenebeli Seadgens

Share in total assets Due from NBG Nostros Net loans Other assets Total assets RWA Required Capital Max. Required leverage 12% 12% 10% 65% 13% 100% Amount 175,439 146,199 950,292 190,058 1,461,988 1,915,204 229,824 6 39 Risk weights 0% 10% 180% 100% 14,620 1,710,526 190,058

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

12%-s, xolo ROE - 15%-s. aRmosavleT evropis qveynebs Tu pirobiTad or jgufad davyofT postsocialistur qveynebad da postsabWoTa qveynebad, vnaxavT, rom baltiis saxelmwifoebi praqtikulad aRmosavleT evropis qveynebis doneze arian, miuxedavad imisa, rom isini jer kidev mniSvnelovnad CamorCebian CexeTs.

2003 ROE Leverage Average 15.1 12.0 Poland 5.9 11.8 Hungary 21.1 11.1 Czech Rep. 23.7 19.8 Slovakia 12.9 10.8 Slovenia 12.8 12.8 Estonia 14.2 8.4 Latvia 16.7 11.9 Lithvania 13.4 9.6

moqmedi sesxebis gacema,

iwoneba 100%-iani ganakveTiT, magram gamomdinare iqidan, rom valdebulebebis didi

nawili sabanko sistemaSi ucxour valutaSia formirebuli da banks realuri instrumentebi ar gaaCnia laris valdebulebebis gazrdisa, erovnul valutaSi sesxebis gacema avtomaturad ukavSirdeba Ria savaluto poziciis gaxsnas, rac TavisTavad riskiania. Sedegad viRebT, rom bankis aqtivebis zrda moqmedi regulaciiT SesaZlebelia mxolod kapitalis zrdis kvalobaze dabali leverejis SenarCunebiT, rac niSnavs imas, rom sabanko sistemis momgebianoba imave doneze darCeba, xolo es dargi ar iqneba saintereso investorebisTvis, rac misi ganviTarebis xelSemSlel faqtorad mogvevlineba. Uucxouri investiciebi bankebSi

#

safinanso dawesebuleba

1/7/2004

1/1/2004

1/1/2003

wili sistema Si

1 2

Tanxa

sul sawesdebo kapitali sul bankebi ucxouri investiciebis monawileobiT 3 maT Soris ucxouri safinanso dawesebulebebis monawileoba

36.4% 20.2%

bankebis wili raodeno sistema Si ba 201,069 23 73,156 13 31.2% 40,544 16.8%

Tanxa

wili Tanxa bankebis raodeno sistemaSi ba 193,291 24 200,133 60,221 12 30.9% 61,912 32,544 16.2% 32,505

bankebi ucxouri investiciebis monawileobiT bankebis raodenoba

25 15

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3.1 DEG 3.2 EBRD

Association of Banks of Georgia

0.9% 4.4% 1,789 8,866 2 4 0.9% 5.2% 1,789 10,066 2 4 0.9% 5.0% 1,750 10,066 2 Ti bi si banki, saqarTvelos banki 4 gaerT. qarTuli banki, prokredit banki, emporiki bankisaqarTvelo, saqarTvelos banki 1 emporiki bankisaqarTvelo, 1 prokredit banki, 2 Ti bi si banki, prokredit banki, 1 prokredit banki, 1 prokredit banki, prokredit banki, 0 prokredit banki,

3.3 emporiki banki 3.4 holandiuri banki FMO 3.5 IFC 3.6 germanuli banki "komercbanki" 3.7 saerTaSoriso mikrosafinanso saaqcio

3.1% 0.0% 2.5% 0.3% 5.4% 1.8% 1.8%

6,189 0 4,982 600 10,920 3601 3,597

1 0 2 1 1 1 1

3.2% 0.0% 1.9% 1.6% 4.0%

6,189 0 3,700 3,000 7,800

1 0 2 1 1

3.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0%

6,189 2,000 3,700 3,000 5,800

sazogadoeba

3.8 KfW 3.9 IPC

0.0%

0

0

0

rogorc cxrilidan Cans, ucxouri kapitalis xvedriTi wili qarTul komerciul bankebSi bolo ori wlis manZilze izrdeboda da mimdinare wlis pirveli rva Tvis mixedviT 30 %-idan 36 %-s Seadgenda. Ees saSualo evropuli maCvenebliT cudi ar aris,. EvrokavSiris qveynebis maStabiT igi 30 %-s Seadgens, xolo aRmosavleT evropis qveynebisaTvis kidev ufro maRalia 50 %-is farglebSia. poloneTisaTvis misi maCvenebeli 60 %-ia. marTalia, ganviTarebuli ekonomikis zogierT qveyanaSi ufro dabalia da germaniasa da inglisSi 20 %-mdea, magram CvenTvis es sanugeSod nakleb gamodgeba. Ppirveli rac TvalSi sacemia, es aris ucxouri kapitalis struqturaSi kerZo kapitalis simcire, didi nawili ucxour safinanso organizaciebze EBRD, IFC, DEC ­ ze modis. Mmeore, moqmedi 23 bankidan Tu ucxouri kapitali 13 bankSia ganTavsebuli, am bankebidan saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis monawileoba mxolod 7 bankSia, xolo procentuli wili 20 %_s Seadgens. ucxour safinanso

dawesebulebebidan lidereoben evropis rekonstruqciisa da ganviaTarebis banki-4,4 %, romelsac wili oTx qarTul bankSi aqvs da "prokreditbankis" erT-erTi aqcioneri saerTaSoriso mikrosafinanso saaqcio sazogadoeba - 5,4 %.

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aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis droiTi gepi da misi naklovanebebi livkidurobis marTvis kuTxiT

erovnuli bankis mier bankebis mimarT likvidurobaze sami (Sinaarsobrivad ori) normatiuli moTxovna arsebobs: 1. 2. likviduri aqtivebis Tanafardoba mTlian valdebulebebTan saangariSgebo periodisTvis (Tvis bolo ricxvi) meti unda iyos 30%-ze (Liquid assets / Liabilities (at the end of month)); saangariSgebo periodze (Tve) saSualo yoveldRiuri likviduri aqtivebis Tanafardoba saSualo yoveldRiur mTlian valdebulebebTan meti unda iyos 30%-ze (Average liquid assets / Average Liabilities); 3. mimdinare aqtivebis Tanafardoba (erTTvemde dafarvis aqtivebi) mimdinare valdebulebebTan (erT TveSi gasastumrebeli valdebulebebi) unda aRematebodes 90%-s (Assets with maturity up to 30 days / Liabilities with up to 30 days - 90-110 %). Cveni azriT, pirveli normatiuli moTxovna (likviduri aqtivebis Tanafardoba mTlian valdebulebebTan) azrs kargavs, imis gamo, rom arsebobs saangariSgebo periodze (Cvens SemTxvevaSi 30 dRe) saSualo yoveldRiuri likviduri aqtivebis saSualo yoveldRiur valdebulebebTan Tanfardobis normatiuli maCvenebeli (romelic gacilebiT adeqvaturad afasebs bankebis mier likvidurobis risks, vidre pirveli maCvenebeli). rac Seexeba mesame maCvenebels aq unda mimdinare aRiniSnos, aqtivebis rom am (erTTvemde maCvenebels dafarvis gaaCnia aqtivebi) mimdinare romelic

valdebulebebTan

Tanafardobas

naklovanebebi,

Teoriulad kargadaa cnobili. kerZod, mocemuli maCvenebeli warmoadgens normatiul moTxovnas aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis droiTi gepis erTTvian kalaTaze. miuxedavad imisa, rom es instrumenti (likvidurobis gepi) sxva instrumentebis speqtrTan erTad farTod gamoiyeneba likvidurobis riskis samarTavad, rogorc mcire, ise msxvili bankebis mier, mas gaaCnia is naklovaneba, rom likvidurobis gepSi fuladi nakadebi gaSlilia maTi sakontraqto vadebis Sesabamisad da aqedan gamomdinare, iseTi sabalanso muxlebis - rogoricaa angariSsworebis

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angariSebi (mimdinare nagariSebi) da Semnaxveli angariSebi - ganxilva rogorc erTTvemde vadaSi ganaRdebadi angariSebisa, ararealuria. es midgoma adeqvaturia investiciebis, sesxebisa da vadiani depozitebis umravles SemTxvevebSi, sakontraqto magram vadebis aSkarad mixedviT arazustia nakadebis angariSsworebis gaSlas, angariSebis (mimdinare nagariSebi) da Semnaxveli Sesabamisad, angariSebis SemTxvevaSi. am muxlebTan mimarTebaSi ubralo gepuri modelis gamoyeneba, romelic efuZneba likvidurobis donis gasazomad arasworia.

erTTvemde aqtivebiT erTTvemde valdebulebebis 90%-iani gadafarvis normatiuli maCvenebeli, roca erTTvemde valdebulebebSi Seyvanilia moTxovnamde depozitebis 100%, metismetad mkacri moTxovnaa bankebis mimarT da igi faqtiurad Seesabameba krizisuli situaciebis moTxovnebs. Cvens mier gaanalizebul iqna ramodenime sabanko sistemis moTxovnamde anabrebis (Average Demand Deposits) volatiloba. standartuli gadaxra (Standard deviation) 3 wlian periodSi Seadgens 18%-s, rac niSnavs, rom am anabrebis 82% stabilur naSTebs warmoadgens da es maSin, rodesac am periodSi movida qveyanaSi politikuri ryevebis yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli revoluciis saxiT (ix. Tavi 2. politikuri riskebis anatomia saqarTvelos specifikaSi).

Average Demand Deposits in 2002 ­ 04 Standard deviation Liquid assets to total liabilities of system - 268 mln. - 50 mln. - 18% - 43%

amasTan, sabanko sistemis likvidurobis maCvenebeli (Liquid assets to total liabilities of system) 43%-s Seadgens. realurad bankebs ar SeuZlia Tavi daixsnan Warbi likvidurobis problemidan, radgan maTi valdebulebebis didi nawili moTxovnamde anabrebis saxiT aris warmodgenili da gepuri koeficientis SezRudvis gamo, xSir SemTxvevaSi maT ar SeuZliaT es likviduri saxsrebi mimarTon sakredito dabandebaSi, maSin rodesac amis moTxovna bazarze arsebobs.

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Ddaskvnebi da mosazrebebi

saqarTvelos bankebis asociacia miiCnevs, rom mizanSewonilia erovnulma bankma daaCqaros

bankebSi

saoperacio riskebis klasificirebis da marTvis danergva da moaxdinos sakredito riskebis Sefasebis arsebuli meTodologiis modificireba. sabanko riskebi uSualod aris dakavSirebuli rogorc qveyanaSi arsebul biznes garemosTan, aseve

erovnuli bankis mier ganxorcielebul sabanko zedamxedvelobis politikasTan. am TvalsazrisiT erovnuli bankis mier bolo wlebSi mniSvnelovani RonisZiebebi gatarda. unda aRiniSnos komerciuli bankebis saqmianobaze da maT finansur maCveneblebze sazedamxedvelo politikis operatiulobis gazrdisaTvis bankebis adgilze da gare sabanko inspeqtirebis praqtikis danergva da Sesabamisi normatiuli bazis, upirvelesad, komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis zedamxedvelobisa da regulirebis wesis srulyofa. sabanko riskebis gaTvlis TvalsazrisiT aseve niSandoblivia riskis mixedviT Sewonili aqtivebis klasifikaciis SemoReba, rac saSualebas iZleva dadgindes bankebis aqtivebis mgrZobeloba sakredito riskebis mimarT. rogorc cnobilia saqarTvelos erovnuli banki meTodologiebis SemuSavebisas ZiriTadad eyrdnoba sabanko saqmianobis zedamxedvelobis bazelis komitetis rekomendaciebs. niSandoblivia, rom bazelis komitetis kapitalis adekvaturobis axali moTxovna, romelic bazeli 2 - is saxeliTaa cnobili, gansxvavebiT wina 1998 wlis SeTanxmebisagan, ufro metad orientirebulia ara kapitalis sidideze, aramed riskebis marTvaze da sabanko kapitalis momsaxureobis TvalsazrisiT, kapitalis adeqvaturobis gansazRvraze. KkerZod, unda aRiniSnos

kapitalis moTxovnebis Semcireba mcire biznesis klienturisaTvis, maT Soris fizikuri pirebze dacemuli sasesxebo porTfelis mixedviT da gare sabalanso transaqciebisaTvis, rasac bankebi iyeneben sakredito riskebis Sesamcireblad.

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bazelis komitetis wevri qveynebisaTvis aRniSnuli SeTanxmeba ZalaSi Sevida 2004 wlis ivnisidan, rasac xeli moaweres ,,didi aTeulis" qveynebma. gasaTvaliswinebelia is garemoeba, rom erovnuli bankis arsebuli meTodika kapitalis adeqvaturobis regulirebis Sesaxeb miRebuli iqna ramdenime wlis win, maSin rodesac makroekonomikuri da politikuri riskebi gacilebiT maRali iyo. dRes qveynis winaSe axali realiebis gaCenis Semdeg, masze revoluciuri situaciis zegavlenis TvalsazrisiT vTvliT, rom es rikebi mainc Semcirebisaken iqneba mimarTuli, miuxedavad

postrevoluciuri negatiuri tendenciebisa. Aamitom,

mizanSewonilad migvaCnia aman Sesabamisi asaxva hpovos

bazelis komitetis standartebTan. MmarTalia, bazeli 2-is SeTanxmebas xeli ganviTarebuli ekonomikis qveynebma moaweres, sadac riskebi isedac dabalia, magram am SeTanxmebis principebis danergva da arsebul realobasTan SeTanawyoba dResve unda daiwyos. zemoTaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, mizanSewonilad migvaCnia erovnuli bankis mxridan daCqardes saoperacio riskebis klasificirebis da marTvis danergvis Sesaxeb instruqciis SemuSaveba da sakredito Sesabamisad. kerZod, ucxour valutaSi formirebuli arasaeqsporto sesxebisa da debitoruli davalianebis Sewonva moxdes ara 200%, aramed 150 an 100%-iT. xolo TviT limitebi Semcirdes, magram bazelis modelTan SedarebiT mainc maRali darCeba (6% da 10%), SesaZlebelia ganxilul iqnas saerTo rezervis 2%-dan 3%-mde zrdis SesaZleblobac. es RonisZieba saSualebas mogvcems bankebma gazardon masStabebi da Seamciron saprocento ganakveTebi, rac damatebiTi stimuli iqneba ekonomikisTvis, amasTanave SeinarCunon momgebianobis misaRebi done. moTxovnamde depozitebs gaaCniaT garkveuli stabiluri zrdis tempebi da Sesabamisad normaluri ekonomikuri da politikuri stabilurobis pirobebSi likvidurobis kuTxiT arasworia maTi mTlianad rogorc erT TveSi gasastumrebeli valdebulebebis aRiareba, Cveni azriT mocemuli normatiuli moTxovna - mimdinare aqtivebis Tanafardoba mimdinare valdebulebebTan aRematebodes 90%-s - SeiZleba dakoreqtirebul iqnes, an riskebis Sefasebis arsebuli meTodologiis modificireba saerTaSoriso sabanko standartebis

Secvlil iqnes sxva maCvenebliT, romelic iqneba ufro adeqvaturi da bankebs miscems saSualebas ufro aqtiurad

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Seasrulon is funqciebi, romlebsac isini istoriulad asruleben da romelic gamoixateba likvidurobis transformaciaSi, anu moklevadiani saxsrebis grZelvadianad gardaqmnaSi. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, danazogebis investiciebad (dabandebebad) transformirebaSi, rac TavisTavad xels uwyobs ekonomikisa da qveynis keTildReobis zrdas. am SemTxvevaSi misaRebi unda iyos erTTvemde vadis gazrda 90 dRemde, rac miRebulia evropis mraval qveyanaSi. am moTxovnis sapirispirod, ganviTarebadi qveynebisaTvis moyavT maRali riskianoba, upirvelesad, politikuri riskebis zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT. moxsenebis TavSi, romelic politikuri riskebis anatomias exeba ufro detalurad aris ganxiluli saqarTvelos specifika politikuri riskebis mgrZnobelobis mimarT da savsebiT SesaZlebelia likvidurobis am maCveneblis transformacia droSi. aqve aRsaniSnavia, rom Teoriulad ekonomikis xelSewyobis kuTxiT sabanko sistemis efeqturobis erT-erTi maCvenebeli swored misi am funqciis - likvidurobis transformaciis - Sesrulebis xarisxiTac ganisazRvreba. Cven, ra Tqma unda, Sors varT im azridan, rom absoluturad miSvebul iqnes sabanko sistemis likvdurobis riskis marTva, Tumca vemxrobiT riskebis adeqvaturi da optimaluri CarCoebis gansazRvras, romelic sxvadasxva zomis bankisTvis (sxvadaxva parametrebiT) SeiZleba sxvadasxva iyos. amdenad, yovelive zemoT Tqmulidan gamomdinare, Cveni azriT, likvidurobis adeqvaturi marTvis mizniT, upriani iqneboda erovnuli bankis mier arsebul normatiul moTxovnaSi dakoreqtirebul iqnes erTvemde

valdebulebebis gaangariSebis wesi. SesaZloa normativis 3 Tvian kalaTaze daweseba, romelic ufro miRebuli praqtikaa dasavleTSi, aseve SesaZlebelia diferencirebuli limitebis daweseba sxvadasxva tipis depozitebze maTi volatilobidan gamomdinare.

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ÈÀÅÉ IV

saqarTvelos komerciuli bankebis safinanso angariSgebis eqspress-analizi 2003 wlis 31 dekembris da 2004 wlis 31 agvistos mdgomareobiT

Catarebuli analizis ZiriTadi mizani mdgomareobda sistemuri komerciuli bankebis mdgradobis donis dadgenaSi. Kkvlevis am Tavis grafikuli nawili mocemulia calke danarTis saxiT. bankebis aqtivebis da pasivebis struqturuli Sesabamisobis gansazRvra mimdinareobda bankebis balansebis ZiriTadi struqturis segmentebis adekvaturobis qvemoT mocemuli modelis Sesabamisad:

likviduri aqtivebi vadiani aqtivebi (sesxebi)

arastabiluri pasivebi vadiani pasivebi (depozitebi) sakuTari (saaqcio) kapitali

immobilizebuli aqtivebi

saeqsperto diagnostikis interpretacia (cxrili #1).

procesSi

gamoyenebuli

sabazo

sabuRaltro-ekonomikuri

maCveneblebis

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Association of Banks of Georgia

cxrili #1 # E ekonomikuri maCveneblis dasaxeleba

2

Eekonomikuri maCveneblis Semadgenloba

3

1

1

arastabiluri pasivebi

valdebulebebi, romelTac ar gaaCniaT droSi SezRuduli Senaxvis vada: · anabrebi moTxovnamde; · klientis angariSsworebis angariSebi; · Tanxebi plastikuri baraTebis angariSebze da sxva immobilizebuli aqtivebi: ZiriTadi saSualebebi, aramaterialuri aqtivebi, vadagadacilebuli sesxebi, Svilobili saaqcio sazogadoebebis kapitalSi dabandebebi erT Tveze meti vadiT momgebianad dabandebuli aqtivebi Tanxebi salaroSi, sakorespondento angariSebze (romlebsac ar moaqvT saprocento Semosavali) dabandebebi oqroSi da sxva faseulobebSi erT Tvemde vadiT ganxorcielebuli momgebiani dabandebebi sakuTari kapitali, fondebi, rezervebi erT Tveze meti vadiT moziduli valdebulebebi, bankTaSorisi sesxebi da sxva igive rac arastabiluri pasivebi erTi Tvis vadamde moziduli valdebulebebi

2

grZelvadiani aramomgebiani aqtivebi

3 4

grZelvadiani momgebiani aqtivebi moklevadiani araSemosavliani aqtivebi moklevadiani Semosavliani aqtivebi grZelvadiani ufaso pasivebi grZelvadiani fasiani pasivebi moklevadiani ufaso pasivebi moklevadiani fasiani pasivebi

5 6 7 8 9

gamoyenebulia Semdegi 11 sistemuri komerciuli bankebis sabalanso monacemebi (aTas larebSi). Sesabamisi piradi numeraciiT:

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Association of Banks of Georgia

1. ,,saqarTvelos banki" -------------------------------- #1 2. ,,gaerTianebuli qarTuli banki" ------------ #2 3. ,,TBC banki" ------------------------------------------ #3 4. ,,Tbiluniversalbanki" ---------------------------- #4 5. ,,banki respublika~ --------------------------------- #5 6. ,,banki qarTu~ ------------------------------------------ #6 7. `bazisbanki~ --------------------------------------------- #7 8. `inteleqtbanki~ -------------------------------------- #8 9. `prokredit banki~ ---------------------------------- #9 10. `emporiki banki~ -------------------------------------- #10

I.

komerciuli bankebis mdgomareoba. Ddiagrama

da

C-1

koeficientebis mixedviT `mdgradoba-rentabeloba~

komerciuli bankebis momgebianobis kordinatebis sistemaSi. sadac: X RerZi

saimedoobis

sakuTari (saaqcio) kapitali Kx = __________________________ Semosavliani aqtivebi wminda mogeba Ky = _________________ wminda aqtivebi

X

100

Y RerZi

X

100

kordinatebis sistema dayofilia Sesabamisad oTx segmentad:

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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Association of Banks of Georgia

I.

arastabiluri

ganviTarebis

segmenti

(rac

mianiSnebs

bankis

safinanso

maCveneblebis

mkveTri

cvalebadobis tendencias da misi Semosavlianobis da saimedoobis maCvenebeli aRemateba saSualo maCveneblebs). II. maRalrentabeluri bankebis segmenti _ romelic miuTiTebs moziduli saxsrebis maqsimaluri efeqtianobiT gamoyenebaze. III. kapitalizirebuli bankebis segmenti _ xasiaTdeba kapitalis sakmarisobis maRali koeficientiT da aqtivebis SedarebiT dabali rentabelobiT. IV. depresiuli _ SedarebiT didi moculobis moziduli saxsrebis araefeqtiani gamoyeneba dabali rentabelobiT, (an/da moziduli saxsrebis Zalzed dabali maCvenebeli ris Sedegadac e.w. `berketis wesis~ Sesabamisad mcirdeba wminda aqtivebis rentabeloba 2/3-iT). V. optimaluri _ SedarebiT optimaluri koeficienturi Tanafardoba.

1. stabiluri ganviTarebis segmentis warmodgenil diagramaze mocemuli bankebis mdgomareoba asaxavs ganxiluli

bankebis umetesobis koncentrirebas `kapitalizirebuli~ bankebis diagramis speqtrSi 2004 wlis mdgomareobiT. amasTan erTad SeiniSneba me-6, me-7, me-10 nomriT aRniSnuli bankebis mkveTri gadaadgileba `kapitalizirebul~ segmentis mimarTulebiT. SedarebiT stabiluri mdgomareoba SeinarCunes bankebma. 1 da me-3 bankebi umniSvnelod gadanacvlebuli iyo `kapitalizirebuli~ segmentis mimarTulebiT, `optimaluri~ segmentis farglebSi. diagramaze mocemuli koeficienturi dinamikis Sesabamisad `kapitalizirebul~ segmentSi gadaadgileba ganxorcielebulia `wminda mogebis~ parametris mkveTri SemcirebiT. zemoaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, bankebis 50% saWiroebs ZiriTadad `Semosavliani aqtivebis~ da `wminda mogebis~ parametrebis gazrdas.

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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me-2, me-4, me-5, me-8 da me-9 nomris

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1.

komerciuli bankebis aqtivebis da pasivebis xarisxis koeficienturi diagramis

analizi. diagrama

C-2

analizSi gamoyenebuli iyo aqtivebis xarisxis (Ka) da pasivebis xarisxis (Kp) Semdegi koeficientebi: [Semosavliani aqtivebi] KA= ______________________ [araSemosavliani aqtivebi] [moklevadiani (likviduri) aqtivebi] _________________________________ [saSualo da grZelvadiani aqtivebi]

X

[ufaso pasivebi] Kp = ________________ [fasiani pasivebi]

X

[saSualo grZelvadiani (stabiluri) aqtivebi] __________________________________________ [moklevadiani (arastabiluri) pasivebi]

aqtivebis da pasivebis struqturis Sefaseba mimdinareobda Sesabamisad bankis Semosavlianobaze da bankis likvidurobaze zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT. ase magaliTad, rac ufro metia Semosavliani da araSemosavliani aqtivebis da ufaso da fasiani pasivebis Tanafardobebi, miT ufro metia bankis potenciuri mogeba. amave dros mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia bankis likvidurobis da valdebulebebis droulad gastumrebis SesaZlebloba. aRniSnul parametrze moqmedebs e.w. likvidurobis rezervis maCvenebeli, romelic ganisazRvreba moklevadiani da (saSualo + grZelvadiani) aqtivebis, aseve (saSualo + grZelvadiani) da moklevadiani TanafardobiT. Cven mier agreTve dadgenili iyo Kx da Kp koeficientebis minimaluri zRvari pasivebis ZiriTadad

`Semosavliani aqtivebis da ufaso pasivebis minimaluri normis mixedviT, ris Sedegadac miviReT e.w. (1.0) `sayuradRebo~ zonis tolferda samkuTxedi.

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ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

maRalrentabeluri bankebis segmentis mocemul C­ 2 diagramaze agreTve SeiniSneba zogierTi bankebis mkveTri da mniSvnelovani gadaadgilebebi mocemuli koordinatebis sistemaSi. ase magaliTad #1 da #6 bankebis mdgomareobis cvlileba ganpirobebulia Kp mkveTri zrdiT, xolo #5 da #7 bankebis Kp SemcirebiT. amasTan erTad `sayuradRebo zonaSi~ imyofeba 5 komerciuli banki #2, #3, #5, #7, #8. e.w. araadekvaturi maCveneblebis zonaSi imyofeba #6, #10, #11 bankebi, rac Kp­s mniSvnelobis Zalzed gazrdili parametrebis mizezia. aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom Kp mniSvnelobis mkveTri Semcireba ganpirobebulia `ufaso saSualo da grZelvadiani valdebulebebis~ maCveneblebis mkveTri SemcirebiT, rac Tavis mxriv iTxovs komerciuli bankebis mxridan pasivebis marTvis TvalsazrisiT meti yuradReba daeTmos arastabiluri da vadiani pasivebis Tanafardobas Sesabamisad likviduri da vadiani aqtivebis mimarT. garda amisa aRniSnul koeficientze garkveul zemoqmedebas axdens moklevadiani (arastabuluri) pasivebis zrda, rac imyofeba pirdapir kavSirSi `likviduri aqtivebis~ zrdasTan. aRniSnuli garemoeba ki miuTiTebs likvidurobis dadgenis normis gadaxedvas.

2.

kapitalizirebuli bankebis segmentis diagramis analizi. diagrama

C-3

mocemul diagramaze warmodgenilia koeficienturi koordinatTa sistema, sadac X RerZi warmoadgens:

(vadiani depozitebi)

K x3

da Y RerZi

= __________________________ (wminda sesxebi)

X

100

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

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ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

(likviduri aqtivebi)

K y3 = __________________________

(arastabiluri pasivebi)

X

100

mocemuli diagrama warmoadgens aqtivebis da pasivebis Sesabamisobas maTi adekvaturi kategoriebis mixedviT. Cvens SemTxvevaSi diagramis sivrce dayofilia 4 kategoriad. I II _ arasakmarisi likvidurobis zona. _ normaluri likvidurobis zona.

III _ sruli likvidurobis zona. IV _ gadaWarbebuli likvidurobis zona. rac Seexeba

Kx3

koeficientis mniSvnelobas (Sesabamisad X RerZis maCveneblebs) unda aRiniSnos, rom

ganxiluli bankebis 90%-s ara aqvs srulad gamoyenebuli vadiani sadepozito baza, anu gamoyenebis koeficienti warmoadgens saSualod 50%-s.

paralelurad Cvens mier gaangariSebuli iyo e.w. aqtivebis immobilizaciis koeficienti: [immobilizebuli aqtivebi] KIA = _______________________________ [sakuTari (saaqcio) kapitali] mocemuli koeficienti asaxavs bankebis sakuTari kapitalis dones immobilizebul aqtivebSi.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

bankebis dasaSvebi likvidurobis maCvenebeli aSkarad iTxovs koreqtirebas da ranJirebas bankebis masStabis (anu kapitalizaciis) gaTvaliswinebiT. erTis mxriv likviduri aqtivebis da arastabiluri pasivebis erTnairi Sefardebis maCveneblis miuxedavad, naklebad kapitalizirebuli banki gacilebiT ufro maRali albaTobiT daqvemdebarebulia likvidurobis riskis (problemis) moqmedebaze. meores mxriv, rac ufro msxvilia (kapitalizirebuli) banki miT ufro inerciulia. aseTi saxis bankisaTvis gacilebiT ufro martivia ar dauSvas resursebis ganawilebasTan (gadanawilebis)

dakavSirebuli rTuli mdgomareoba. amasTan erTad msxvili bankis mier aqtivebis da pasivebis Sesabamisi kategoriebis mimarT daSvebuli disbalansis gamosworeba dakavSirebulia gacilebiT ufro met danaxarjebTan (da/an zaralTan) vidre SedarebiT naklebad msxvili bankebisaTvis.

4.

diagrama

C-4

- ze grafikuli nawili gviCvenebs, rom me-2 da me-11 bankebs aqvT gadaWarbebuli

koeficienti, rac imas niSnavs, rom immobilizebuli aqtivebis dafinanseba xorcieldeba arastabiluri da vadiani pasivebis meSveobiT, rac warmoqmnis damatebiT sabalanso riskebs. rac Seexeba danarCen bankebs aq naTlad Cans, rom vadiani aqtivebis (wminda sesxebis) dafinanseba mimdinareobs sakuTari kapitalis nawilis meSveobiT. erTis mxriv aRniSnuli faqti ganapirobebs saprocento marJis zrdis saSualebas da, meores mxriv ar aris bolomde aTvisebuli kapitaluri dabandebebis misaRebi limiti.

5.

Cvens mier gaangariSebuli iyo vadiani aqtivebis da vadiani pasivebis saSualo Sewonili vadebis adeqvaturobis maCvenebeli. diagramaze

C-5

naCvenebia

e.w.

vadebis

adekvaturobis

wrfe,

romelic

koreqtirebuli iyo `dafinansebis bazis~

2004 wlis 8 Tvis mimoxilva

(vadiani depozitebi/wminda sesxebi) maCveneblis (BF = 42%) Sesabamisad.

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Association of Banks of Georgia

diagramidan gamomdinare vadiani aqtivebis saSualo Sewonili vada aRemateba vadiani pasivebis saSulao Sewonil vadas, rac Tavis mxriv miuTiTebs pasivebis vadebis gazrdis aucileblobaze maTi e.w. sekiuterizaciis meTodis gamoyenebiT (sadepozito sertifikatebis, an obligaciebis gamoyenebis meSveobiT).

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

daskvnebi da mosazrebebi

Cven mier warmodgenili analizi Seexo, sabanko sistemaSi aqtivebis mixedviT 1%-ze meti procentuli wilis mqone 11 komerciuli bankis saerTo koeficienturi parametrebis ganxilvas. Tavis Tavad cxadia, rom mocemuli analitikuri masala srulyofilad ar asaxavs bankebis finansuri mdgomareobis detalur saeqsporto Sefasebis kriteriumebs, vinaidan SemuSavebuli bankebis saeqsperto diagnostikis meTodologia Seicavs 28 ZiriTad da 4 damxmare koeficients, rodesac Cven SemTxvevaSi gamoyenebuli iyo mxolod 8 ZiriTadi koeficienti. amasTan, moxsenabaSi gamoyenebuli analizuri meTodi eqvemdebareba konkretuli bankis "qcevis" gacilebiT ufro farToO da detalizirebul analizs, romelic Tavis mxriv dakavSirebulia bankebis saqmianobis damatebiTi saxis

safinanso informaciis miRebasa da damuSavebasTan. saqarTvelos bankebis asociacia momavalSi apirebs am saxis kvlevebis ganxorcielebas konkretuli bankis moTxovnis safuZvelze. miuxedavad amisa Catarebulma analizma gviCvena bankebis mdgradobis da rentabelobis, agreTve aqtivebis da pasivebis xarisxis cvlilebebis tendenciebi. saerTo rekomendaciebis saxiT SeiZleba gamoiyos ramodenime mniSvnelovani pozicia: komerciuli bankebis umetesi nawili imyofeba gadaWarbebuli likvidurobis mdgomareobaSi; Semosavliani da amave dros likviduri aqtivebis mwvave deficiti; vadiani pasivebis arasruli gamoyeneba; likviduri pasivebis praqtikulad araseboba; vadiani pasivebisa da vadiani aqtivebis saSualo-Sewonili vadebis mkveTri disbalansi (SedarebiT

moklevadiani pasivebis dominirebis mizeziT); pasivebis (valdebulebebis) kategoriebis parametrebis (moculoba, vadianoba, Rirebuleba) mkveTri da

mniSvnelovani cvlilebebi da vadianobis paritetis darRveva.

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

zemoaRniSnuli

faqtorebis

gamomwvevi

mizezebi

mdgomareobs

erTis

mxriv

e.w.

`Camel~-is

sistemis

specifiurobaSi da finansur-ekonomikuri koeficientebis saerTo Sefasebis unarianobaze. aRniSnul moments arTulebs swori analitikuri Sedegebis miRweva ekonomikuri da biznes-garemos koniuqturis arastabilur pirobebSi. meryevi mikroekonomikuri parametrebis garemoSi gacilebiT qmediTunariani da efeqturi xdeba `Camel~-is koeficientebis detalizireba da damatebiTi e.w. `koreqciuli~ koeficientebis SemoRebis praqtikis danergva. ase, magaliT saerTaSoriso praqtikidan gamomdinare komerciuli bankebis `mdgradobis~ Semcireba umetes SemTxvevaSi gamowveuli iyo e.w. `sabalanso modelis~ Sesabamisobis paritetis darRveviT (sqema #1). meores mxriv bankebis menejmentis poziciebidan meti yuradReba unda daeTmos pasivebis marTvis da

safinanso inJiniringis* sakiTxebs. komerciuli bankebis gep-is da saprocento marJis cvlilebebis tendenciebis analizis Sedegebi naTlad gviCvenebs mocemuli parametrebis Semcirebis tendenciurobas. bankebis sabalanso monacemebis mixedviT, Semosavliani aqtivebi gamoxatulia ZiriTadad sesxebis da saxazino valdebulebebSi dabandebis saxiT. bankebs praqtikulad ar gaaCniaT likviduri da amave dros Semosavliani aqtivebis kategoriebi.

magaliTisaTvis dRes, rodesac qveyana gadadis qronikulad deficituri biujetidan proficitul biujetze, xolo saSinao da sagareo valebis momsaxureba problemuri aRar aris, yovelgvar azrs kargavs 20%-ian risks daqvemdebarebuli me-2 kategoriis aqtivebSi saqarTvelos finansTa saministros saxazino valdebulebebis gayvana. Bunebrivia, igi unda dakvalificirdes pirveli kategoriis aqtivebad. sakmaod maRali moTxovnebia dayenebuli 50%-ian da 100%-ian risks daqvemdebarebuli aqtivebis

klasifikaciaSic, romlebic Seexeba ,,egTos" arawevri qveynebis moTxovnebs da garantiebs. MmaTi nawili albaT Semcirebuli unda iqnas da SedarebiT dabali riskebis kategoriebad. amasTan, 50%-ian riskebs daqvemdebarebul

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ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

aqtivebSi migvaCnia, rom unda daematos punqti ­ ,,moTxovnebi da/an maTi nawili, romelic mTlianad aris uzrunvelyofili oqroTi da Zvirfasi liTonebiT". aRniSnuli faqtis Sedegebi sakmaod negatiuria sabanko sistemis perspeqtiuli ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT, Semdegi martivi mizezis gamo: ver xorcieldeba e.w. arastabiluri pasivebis srulyofili da optimaluri gamoyeneba Semosavlian aqtiur operaciebSi; ver xorcieldeba moklvadiani depozitebis dabandeba adekvaturi vadebis aqtivSi; srulad ar aris gamoyenebuli sadepozito baza; ar arsebobs savaluto da saprocento riskebis xejirebis meqanizmebi. Sedegad ecema bankis saerTo rentabeloba da SezRudulia rekapitalizaciis saSualebebi. amis gamo aucileblobas warmoadgens likviduri bankTaSorisi bazris Seqmna, sadac iqneba warmodgenili Semdegi saxis likviduri safinanso instrumentebi: saxazino da erovnuli bankis mier da komerciuli bankebis mier emitirebuli valdebulebebi (sadepozito sertifikatebis saxiT); savaluto da saprocento fiuCersuli kontraqtebi; savaluto sertifikatebi; standartul sabanko oqroze Sesabamisi uflebebi. bankTaSoris organizebul bazarze aRniSnuli safinanso instrumentebis gamoCena mkveTrad gazrdis, rogorc aqtivebis da pasivebis xarisxobriv maCveneblebs, aseve bankebis arasaprocento Semosavlebis nakadebs mocemul bazris segmentze klienturis momsaxureobidan miRebuli sakomisio anaricxebis saxiT.

*safinanso inJineringis terminis qveS igulisxmeba bankis safinanso-analitikuri, aqtivebisa da pasivebis marTvis (xazinis), da axali sabanko produqtebis samsaxurebis maqsimalurad koordinirebuli midgoma menejmentis mxridan.

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ÈÀÅÉ V sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi

moxsenebis pirveli, meore da mesame Tavebi naTlad cxadyofen, rom sabanko seqtoris Semdgomi

reformirebisa da mdgradi ganviTarebisaTvis aucilebeli xdeba sistemis saTanado sakanonmdeblo uzrunvelyofa. migvaCnia, rom dRes moqmedi sabanko kanonmdbeloba da erovnuli bankis mier miRebuli normatiuli dokumentebis nawili moZvelebulia da veRar pasuxobs misi ganviTarebis Tanamedrove tendenciebs da realobebs. xSir SemTxvevebSi winaaRnmdegobaSi da SeusabamobaSi modian bazelis komitetis bolo rekomendaciebTan, radgan gardamavali ekonomikis debulebebis principebzea agebuli. mosalodneli sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebidan calke unda gamoiyos cvlilebebis aucilebloba moqmed sabanko kanonmdeblobaSi (saqarTvelos kanoni komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis Sesaxeb), romlebic erovnulma bankma sasurvelia mimdinare wlis bolomde waradginos parlamentSi dasamtkiceblad da Sida normatiuli dokumentebi, erovnuli bankis prezidentis brZanebebi da instruqciebi, romlebic sabanko saqmianobas

aregulireben da romelTa cvlilebac mizanSewonilad migvaCnia dekembris TveSive, miT umetes aRniSnuli sakiTxebi seb-is uSualo kompetenciaSi Sedis.

1. ekonomikuri limitebi da normativebi kapitalis adeqvaturobis regulirebis nawilSi:

ucxour valutaSi formirebuli arasaeqsporto sesxebisa da debitoruli davalianebis Sewonva moxdes ara 200%, aramed 150 an 100%-iT. xolo TviT limitebi Semcirdes, magram bazelis modeliTan SedarebiT mainc maRali darCeba (6% da 10%), SesaZlebelia ganxilul iqnas saerTo rezervis 2%-dan 3%-mde zrdis

SesaZleblobac. es RonisZieba saSualebas mogvcems bankebma gazardon masStabebi da Seamciron saprocento

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

ganakveTebi, rac damatebiTi stimuli iqneba ekonomikisTvis, amasTanave SeinarCunon momgebianobis misaRebi done. erTTvemde dafarvis aqtivebis vadis gazrda sam Tvemde dafarvis aqtivebamde (Assets with maturity up to 90 days / Liabilities with up to 90 days - 90-110 %), miRebulia evropis mraval qveyanaSi. moxdes riskebis adeqvaturi da optimaluri CarCoebis gansazRvra, romelic sxvadasxva zomis bankisTvis (sxvadaxva parametrebiT) SeiZleba sxvadasxva iyos. 50%-ian sakredito risks daqvemdebarebul kategoriis aqtivebSi damatebuli iqnas punqti ­ ,,moTxovnebi da/an maTi nawili, romelic mTlianad aris uzrunvelyofili oqroTi da Zvirfasi liTonebiT". 20%-ian risks daqvemdebarebuli me-2 kategoriis aqtivebidan pirvel kategoriaSi gadatanili iqnas

,,saqarTvelos finansTa saministros saxazino valdebulebebiT warmoqmnili moTxovnebi" da ,,moTxovnebi da /an maTi nawili romlebic uzrunvelyofili arian saqarTvelos finansTa saministros mier gamoSvebuli da garantirebuli saxazino valdebulebebiT". Cveni azriT mocemuli normatiuli moTxovnebis cvlileba bankebs miscems saSualebas ufro aqtiurad

Seasrulon is funqciebi, romlebsac isini istoriulad asruleben da romelic gamoixateba likvidurobis transformaciaSi, anu moklevadiani saxsrebis grZelvadianad gardaqmnaSi. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, danazogebis investiciebad (dabandebebad) transformirebaSi, rac TavisTavad xels uwyobs ekonomikisa da qveynis

keTildReobis zrdas.

2. cvlilebebi instruqciaSi "saqarTvelos sabanko dawesebulebebSi angariSebis gaxsnis Sesaxeb"

Cveni azriT am dokumentis mTavari nakli is aris, rom igi konceptualurad gaumarTavia da winaaRmdegobaSi modis rogorc "ukanono Semosavlebis legalizaciis aRkveTis Sesaxeb" saqarTvelos kanonTan, aseve dublirebas axdens da gaugebars xdis 1998 wlis #75 da #76 saqarTvelos sabanko dawesebulebebis mier ararezidenti da

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

rezidenti iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebisaTvis erovnul da ucxour valutaSi angariSebis gaxsnisa da

warmoebis Sesaxeb instruqciebs.

"saqarTvelos gamonaklisis garda, sabanko arsad dawesebulebebSi ararezidet da angariSebis rezident gaxsnis Sesaxeb" da instruqciaSi pirebs cvlilebebisa da damatebebis Setanis aqtualuroba aseve, dakavSirebulia saerTaSoriso praqtikasTan, romlis mixedviTac, iSviaTi iuridiul fizikur angariSebis gaxsnis

gansxvavebuli reJimi ar gaaCniaT, rac evropis adamianis uflebaTa dacvis qartiis principebidan momdinareobs. msgavsi SezRudvebi damaxasiaTebelis daxuruliÉda direqtiuli tipis ekonomikis qveynebisaTvis, isic savaluto kontrolis politikis nawilSi gamoiyeneba da nakleb calkeuli instruqciebis saxiT. miT umetes nonsens warmoadgens axali 51-e instruqciis suliskveTebac, romlis mixedviTac dokumenti miRebulia rezidenti pirebisaTvis da ara bankebisaTvis. saqarTvelos bankebis asociacias erovnuli bankis winaSe Semodis iniciativiT, raTa dRes moqmedi sami instruqciis nacvlad Seiqmnas erTi dokumenti, romelic daaregulirebs saqarTvelos sabanko dawesebulebebis mier ararezidenti da rezidenti iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebisaTvis erovnul da ucxour valutaSi angariSebis gaxsnisa da warmoebis wess da mas erTian dokumentSi moaqcevs. aRniSnuli dokumenti unda iwodebodes "saqarTvelos sabanko dawesebulebebSi angariSebis gaxsnis instruqciad" da unda gansazRvravdes rogorc angariSebis saxeobebs (mimdinare, sadepozito da a.S.), aseve salare da savaluto angariSebis gaxsnis pirobebs da bankebis mxridan moTxovnebs Tavad am sabanko angariSebis mflobeli iuridiul da fizikur pirebisadmi. saqarTvelos bankebis asociacia miiCnevs, rom moqmed 51-e instruqciasTan mimarTebaSi, Cvens mier miTiTebuli naklovanebebi ganvlil periodSi bankebisaTvis kvlav seriozul problemas warmoadgens. aqve gvsurs yuradReba or ZiriTad sakiTxze SevaCeroT:

sabanko

angariSebis

gaxsnisas

dokumentebze

xelmoweris

namdvilobis

dadasturebis sanotaro wesTan dakavSirebiT, sabanko angariSebis gaxsnis principebTan dakavSirebiT.

A

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Association of Banks of Georgia

sabanko

angariSebis

gaxsnisas

dokumentebze

xelmoweris

namdvilobis

dadasturebis

sanotaro

wesis

arsebuli redaqciis muxlebis mixedviT fizikuri piri, Tu is eweva samewarmeo saqmianobas bankSi waradgens xelmoweris nimuSs damowmebuls sanotaro wesiT, Sesabamisad yovel wuTSi sanotaro proceduris ganxorcieleba klientisaTvis zrdis dros da xarjebs. AamasTan wamyvani qarTuli bankebi gadasuli arian internetbankingis momsaxureobis aTvisebaze, romlisTvisasc notarialuri damowmebis moqmedi paraqtika Sefaferxebel garemoebas warmoadgens. kanonmdeblobiT gaTvaliswinebuli organizaciuli warmonaqmni, romelic ar aris registrirebuli iuridiul pirad, angariSsworebis angariSis gasaxsnelad bankSi waradgens wesdebasa (debulebas) da xelmoweris nimuSs damowmebuls notarialurad, Tumca cnoba sagadasaxado inspeqciidan ar moeTxoveba. iuridiul pirad organizaciuli warmonaqmnis registracia da wesdebis (debulebis) damtkiceba ar Sedis notariusis konpetenciaSi. aseve ar Sedis mis kompetenciaSi registrirebuli wesdebis (debulebis) gareSe warmomadgenlobiTi uflebamosili piris gansazRvra da misi xelmoweris nimuSis damowmeba. amasTanave, analogiuri organizaciuli warmonaqmnisaTvis gansazRvrulia miznobrivi angariSis gaxsna sawesdebo kapitalSi pirveladi SenatanebisTvis mxolod

damfuZnebelTa krebis oqmis safuZvelze. migvaCnia, rom imperatiul normad xelmoweris nimuSis sanotaro wesiT dadastureba, romelic eyrdnoba ra "notariatis Sesaxeb' saqarTvelos kanonis 41-e muxlis 1 punqtis "T" qvepunqts ar warmoadgens aucileblobas am instruqciasTan mimarTebaSi, arc sagadasaxado kodeqsis mimarTebiTac.

sabanko

angariSebis

gaxsnis

principebTan

dakavSirebiT

migvaCnia,

rom ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÓÀÁÀÍÊÏ ÐÒÀØÔÉÊÉÓ

ÛÄÓÀÁÀÌÉÓÀÃ, bankis sxvadasxva filialebSi, arsebuli wesebis sruli dacviT, SesaZlebeli unda iyos erTze meti ZiriTadi angariSis (saangariSworebo (mimdinare)) gaxsna. es garemoeba gamomdinareobs im Tvalsazrisidan, rom dRes wamyvani kompaniebis umravlesoba Tavis saqmianobas axorcielebs diversificirebis principiT. am princips met-naklebad warmatebiT iyeneben qarTuli kompaniebic, romlebic warmatebiT axorcieleben ramdenime saxis produqciis gamoSvebas. aqedan gamomdinare, kompaniisaTvis umjobesia hqondes ZiriTadi angariSebi swored am

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Association of Banks of Georgia

saqmianobebidan

gamomdinare,

TiToeuli

saxis

produqciaze

da

momsaxurebaze

kontrolisa

da

dagegmvis

optimizaciisaTvis. garda am momentisa aRsaniSnavia, rom am SemTxvevaSi bankisTvis cnobilia klientis reputacia, misi operaciis tipebi, angariSebi da rac mniSvnelovania sainkaso davalebebis (yadaRebis) kontrolisa da fulis gaTeTrebis kanonis moTxovnebis ufro srulyofilad SesrulebisaTvis. amasTanave, migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli SezRudva aris daxuruli tipis ekonomikuri meurneobisaTvis damaxasiaTebeli gadmonaSTi da absoliturad miuRebelia "Ria ekonomikis" pirobebSi, riskenac saqarTvelo dRes iswrafvis. klienti saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi angariSs mainc gaxsnis sxva bankSi (filialSi). am SemTxvevaSi mxolod gauaresdeba momsaxurebis operatiuloba da xarisxi, xolo bankebis mxridan klienturis erTiani bazis arqonis pirobebSi garTulebulia kontroli. analogiuri principebi unda gavrceldes miznobrivi angariSebisaTvis.

3. saqarTvelos kanoni komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis Sesaxeb" "muxli 10. komerciuli bankebis sakuTrebis uflebisa da aqtivebis struqturis SezRudva"

1. komerciuli bankis arcerT aqcioners an erToblivad moqmed aqcionerTa jgufs ara aqvs ufleba

flobdes da gankargavdes wilis im odenobas, romelic aRemateba komerciuli bankis gancxadebuli Tu ganaRdebuli sawesdebo kapitalis 25 procents. erovnuli banki uflebamosilia dauSvas gamonaklisi am wesidan mxolod wilis iseTi mflobelisaTvis, romelsac aqvs sabanko licenzia da Tavad warmoadgens banks".

migvaCnia, rom amave kanonis me-4 muxlis me-3 da me-4 punqtebi isedac iZleva me-10 muxlis am SezRudvis gauqmebis saSualebas. MmiT umetes am saxis sakuTrebiTi SezRudvis praqtika aSkarad moZvelebulia da ewinaaRmdegeba bazelis sabanko zedamxedvelobis saerTaSoriso komitetis bolo wlebSi miRebul direqtivebs. AaRniSnuli direqtivebis Tanaxmad, mTavaria bankis aqcionerebi iyvnen finansurad Zlieri kompaniebi da sabanko saqmianobis keTilsindisierad ganmaxorcielebeli pirebi. sxva uflebebi da SezRudvebi ki sawesdebo kapitalis procentiani SezRudviT gaTvaliswinebuli ar aris. A

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Association of Banks of Georgia

niSandoblivia, rom am muxlis amoRebas, sabanko asociaciasTan SeTanxmebiT ori wlis win erovnuli banki sabanko kanonmdeblobSi morigi cvlilebebis Setanisasac gegmavda. maSin igi deputat n. JavaxiSvilisa da Sesabamisad, politikuri bloki "aRorZinebis" sawinaaRmdego poziciis gamo ar gavida.DdRes Seqmnil situaciaSi es SezRudva namdvili anaqronizmia da seriozul problemas warmoadgens investorebisaTvis.. amasTan migvaCnia, rom mxolod am muxlis meqanikuri amoReba sakmarisi ar aris. sabanko seqtorSi investiciebis mosazidad da sabanko konsolidaciis gasaZliereblad aucilebelia bazelis principebis Semotana ukve sabanko holdingebis

saxiT. Sesabamisad unda Sevides cvlilebebi moqmed sabanko kanonmdeblobaSi am mimarTulebi, rogorc terminTa ganmartebaSi, aseve muxlobrivad. igive me-10 muxli Tavisuflad SeiZleba Seicvalos rogorc mesakuTris uflebaze, aramed am uflebis gankargvaze. Sesatania cvlilebebi sabanko licenzirebis nawilSic. sabanko licenzireba pirvel etapze erTaderT sakiTxs unda arkvevdes - bankis momavali aqcionerebi ramdenad arian finansurad Zlieri kompaniebi da sabanko saqmianobis keTilsindisierad ganmaxorcielebeli pirebi. Sida bazris dacvis TvalsazrisiT, licenzireba unda moicavdes ara standartuli sam-wliani biznes gegmebis wardgenas, aramed xuT-wlamde mainc da Tan realuri bazris marketingul kvlevaze dayrdnobiT. sabanko holdingiT, romlis bazelis CanawerSic sakuTrebis uflebisa da kontrolis nawilSi arsebobs 25%-iani SezRudvebi, magram ara

4. saqarTvelos kanoni "komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis Sesaxeb"

muxli 14. sameTvalyureo sabWo. P punqti 3. komerciuli bankis aqcionerTa saerTo kreba uflebamosilia sameTvalyureo sabWos wevrebs

dauniSnos xelfasi, romelic gaicema mxolod bankis wminda mogebidan.

muxli 16. sarevizio komisia da Sida kontroli.

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Association of Banks of Georgia

punqti 5. komerciuli bankis aqcionerTa saerTo kreba uflebamosilia sarevizio komisiis wevrebs dauniSnos

xelfasi, romelic gaicema mxolod bankis wminda mogebidan.

migvaCnia, rom aRniSnuli Canawerebi gaumarTlebeli da moZvelebulia. jer erTi, ewinaaRmdegeba "mewarmeTa Sesaxeb" kanons da meorec, Tavad amave kanonis wina me-13 muxls, romlis mixedviTac "komerciuli bankis xelmZRvanel organoTa formireba da funqcionireba xorcieldeba "mewarmeTa Sesaxeb" saqarTvelos kanonis mixedviT. "mewarmeTa Sesaxeb" saqarTvelos kanoni ki calsaxad ganmartavs xelfasis formirebis principebs, romlis Tanaxmadac wminda mogebidan xelfasebis gacema nonsensia. saxelfaso fondi saerTaSoriso sabuRaltro standartebis mixedviT xarjebis da rogorc wesi fiqsirebuli xarjebis nawilSi formirdeba da ara gamoqviTebis Semdeg darCenili wminda mogebis nawilSi. Ees momenti bankebisaTvis uxerxulobas qmnis saerTaSoriso auditoruli kompaniebis winaSec, romlebic

yovelwliurad atareben auditorul Semowmebebs, radgan ara mxolod saerTaSoriso sabuRaltro standartebs ewinaaRmdegeba, aramed winaaRmdegobaSi modis saqarTveloSi moqmed sabuRaltro standartebis axal redaqciasTanac, romelzec sabanko seqtori ori wlis win gadavida. Aaqedan gamomdinare muxli me-14, punqti 3-is da me-16 muxlis punqti 5-is aRniSnuli Canawerebi amosaRebia.

5.

saqarTvelos kanoni "komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis Sesaxeb"

Tavi 3. muxli 19. sabanko usafrTxoeba da informaciis monitoringi. dRes moqmed sabanko kanonmdeblobaSi da upirvelesad es exeba kanons "komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis

Sesaxeb", praqtikulad araferi ar aris naTqvami sabanko usafrTxoebaze. Aarada ganviTarebuli ekonomikis qveynebis sabanko kanonmdeblobebis umravlesoba am sakiTxebs Zalze did mniSvnelobas aniWebs. sabanko

usafrTxoebaSi ar ganixileba marto bankebis dacva dacvis specformirebiani samsaxurebis mier, rogorc es

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Association of Banks of Georgia

CvenTan

warmoudgeniaT.

wamyvani

sabanko aseve

dawesebulebani aramaterialur

sabanko

usafrTxoebaSi sabanko

Nganixilaven,

rogorc

materialuri

faseulobebis

dacvas,

faseulobebs

kompiuteruli

programebis

CaTvliT, romlebic usafrTxoebis erTian sistemebs hqmnian. sakuTar struqturaSi da ra nawili SeiZleba iyos

midgomebic am sakiTxebisadmi ukve kompleqsuria anu saxelSekrulebo safuZvelze organizebuli. aqedan

bankebs unda hqondes saSualeba Tavad airCion usafrTxoebis erTian zomebSi ra nawils axorcieleben Tavad anu

gamomdinare migavaCnia, rom kanonSi "komerciuli bankebis saqmianobis Sesaxeb", Tavi me-3 sakuTrebis ufleba da marTva" ­s unda daematos me-19 muxli Semdegi CanaweriT. Tavi 3. muxli me-19. sabanko usafrTxoeba da informaciis monitoringi. " komerciuli bankebi uflebamosili arian Tavad an xelSekrulebis safuZvelze ganaxorcielon sabanko usafrTxoeba da informaciis monitoringi, saqarTvelos moqmedi kanonmdeblobis safuZvelze"

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ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÀ

Association of Banks of Georgia

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2004 year, 8 month Observe

Information

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÁÀÍÊÄÁÉÓ ÀÓÏÝÉÀÝÉÉÓ ÌÉÄÒ, 2002 ßËÉÓ ÐÉÒÅÄË ÊÅÀÒÔÀËÛÉ ÂÀßÄÖËÉ

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