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Agricultural Economics 4113

AGRICULTURAL PRICE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Spring Semester, 2007

Instructor Bruce L. Dixon Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Office: Room 215, Agriculture Building Phone: 575-4408 e-mail: [email protected]

COMPUTER SOFTWARE: EViews8 4.1 Student Version Software. Quantitative Micro Software, LLC, 1994-2004. This may be purchased in the bookstore in the Student Union. TEXTBOOKS: (Recommended) John W. Goodwin, Agricultural Price Analysis and Forecasting, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1994. (A copy of this book is on reserve at the library.) ON RESERVE: Churchill, Jr., Gilbert A. Marketing Research: Methodological Foundations, sixth ed. Dryden, Fort Worth, 1995. (A copy of this book is on reserve at the library.) Article: Dohlman, E. and R. Schnepf and C. Bolling. ASoybean Production Costs and Export Competitiveness in the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Oil Crops Situation and Outlook/OCS-2001/October 2001. (pgs. 16-24) available at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/ers/OCS-yearbook//2000s/2001/OCS-yearbook-1024-2001.pdf. Article: Carlberg, Jared G. And Clement E. Ward. AAlternative Theories and Empirical Approaches to Price Discovery: An Application to Fed [email protected] Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 35,3(2003):649-661. (Should be available on Mullins electronic reserves.

2 ALTERNATIVE TEXTBOOK: Helmberger, Peter G. and Jean-Paul Chavas. The Economics of Agricultural Prices. Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1996. REQUIRED NOTES: One professor=s packet will be for sale at the University Union Bookstore. This packet includes lecture notes and the three old exams given in spring 2005. All students are urged to purchase these materials since they are vital to the course. The packet number is: PA-278 with title, ALecture Notes and Old [email protected]

Calendar Dates for AGEC 4113:

EXERCISES Exercise #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 Subject Matter Working with Index Numbers Trend-Regression Analysis Modeling Cycles Modeling Seasonality Estimating Supply and Demand: Multiple Linear Regression Date Assigned Jan 16 Jan 30 Feb 13 Mar 6 Mar 13 Date Due Jan 26 Feb 9 Feb 23 Mar 9 Mar 30

TERM PAPER

Element Price and Production Information for the Selected Commodity (Conference during Week) Trend Analysis (Analysis and First Draft of Narrative) Cyclical Analysis (Analysis and First Draft) Data for Variables Selected for Supply-Demand Analysis (Conference during Week) Completed Term Paper Date Due

Feb 5 - Feb 9 Feb 20 Mar 16

Apr 2 - Apr 6 May 3

3 EXAMINATIONS FIRST HOUR EXAMINATION SECOND HOUR EXAMINATION FINAL EXAMINATION Feb 27 Apr 10 May 8 (7:30-9:30 a.m.)

GRADING

First Hour Examination Second Hour Examination Final Examination Term Paper Exercises and Attendance Total 15 percent 20 percent 25 percent 25 percent 15 percent 100 percent

Students may work in teams of two people on the exercises and term paper. The teams should be the same for both homework and the term papers. Exams will be taken individually by each student in the class. Because computer literacy is one of the skills obtained in this class, the second hourly exam will be given in the computer laboratory and will require computations on the computer. Thus both people on the team must learn Excel spreadsheet and EViews skills. Graduate students are held to a higher standard and are expected to do higher quality work than undergraduate students for the same letter grade. Five points will be deducted from graduate students' course average numerical score and then letter grades will be assigned according to categories that are used to assign the undergraduates their letter grades. Note: Homework exercises are graded on a full credit, half-credit or no credit basis. Points are assigned for each exam and the term paper and then the points for each test, the term paper and the exercises are averaged. The letter grades are distributed on the basis of the instructor's evaluation of the performance of the class.

Other Information

Office Hours: Formally my office hours are Tuesday, 1:30-2:30 p.m. and Wednesday, 10:00-11:00 a.m. However, feel free to stop in and ask questions anytime the light is on in my office. If I am busy when you stop by, we will arrange for a mutually convenient time to meet. If you set an appointment and subsequently find out you cannot make it, please call my office and leave a message to that effect or e-mail me. Homework: Exercises will involve the computer. Students may work in teams of two and with other students in the class on homework exercises since group interaction often leads to greater learning for all involved. It should be emphasized that the homework exercises are long

4 and, unless you are exceptionally computer literate, you should not expect to be able to complete an exercise in one 80 minute laboratory session. Examinations: There will be two midterm examinations and one final examination. All exams will be written and they will be closed book. The second midterm requires use of the computers in the computer laboratory. In order to take this midterm you will need to have the EViews 4.1 Student Version CD in your possession. Any make-ups of the midterms, due to not taking the exam on the day given, will be oral at a mutually convenient time for student and instructor. A make-up will only be given if a student does not take it for medical emergency (personal or close family), religious reasons or approved (in advance) absence. Term Paper: Each student or student team will be required to write a term paper on an agricultural commodity of their choice. But producer pork prices cannot be used since they form the backbone of class homework. There will be two conferences with the instructor to discuss the topic and appraise progress. A handout gives more detail about how to write this paper. A very precise schedule is being given in which various phases of the term paper are due. It is strongly preferred that narrative sections be typed although equations can be written in free-hand or taped in from computer printouts. Students are urged to complete the various parts of the term paper on time. Points will be deducted for being late. In addition, the instructor has a pathological aversion to course incompletes and will only grant an incomplete for compelling reasons such as medical problems of self or immediate family members (parents, spouse, children or other dependents). Being "busy" with other classes or a job is not a legitimate excuse. Attendance Policy: Attendance is optional except for when a guest speaker is making a presentation and when fellow-students are presenting their term papers. There will be three days of student presentations and one day for a guest speaker. Tentatively, we are scheduled to have our guest speaker on February 6. For each unexcused absence, 1.25 percentage points will be deducted from the Exercise and Attendance score which has a maximum of 15 percentage points. Missing more than 10 minutes of any of these periods means you have missed the whole class in terms of point deductions. Students with Learning Disabilities. Students who have learning disabilities will be accommodated as indicated by the campus policy on disabilities. Students with learning disabilities are urged to confer with the instructor as early in the semester as possible to arrange appropriate accommodation. It is the student=s responsibility to initiate this contact. Weather Policy: If the Fayetteville public schools are open, lecture or lab will be given. However, each student must assess their own personal risk of coming to campus and moving around on campus. If there is inclement weather and the student believes it is unsafe for them to come to campus, then they should not come to campus. No assignment would be graded down in such a case and an exam would be re-scheduled. During inclement weather the instructor will try to communicate with students via e-mail.

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COURSE SYLLABUS--CALENDAR

Date Jan 16 Lecture Topic Introduction to Course, Role of Price. LABORATORY: How to Use Spreadsheets. Reading Assigned (Goodwin) Chapter I Assign Exercise 1: Working with Index Numbers and Data Collection (Goodwin) Chapter II Remarks

Jan 18

Price Determination and Price Discovery.

Jan 23

Using Index Numbers to Correct for Inflation LABORATORY: Index Numbers Electronic Data Bases

(Goodwin) Chapter III (Goodwin) Chapter III (Goodwin) Chapter IV Exercise 1 Due

Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 30

Movement of Prices Over Time Analysis of Trends

Least Squares Regression Analysis for Defining Trends and Relationships Between Data Series LABORATORY: Least Squares Regression Analysis for Estimating Trends and Relationships Between Data Series - Introduce EViews8

Chapter V, class notes Chapter V, class notes Assign Exercise 2: Trends

Feb 1 Feb 6

Methods of Statistical Hypothesis Testing Guest Speaker--Ms. Rebecca Cross, State Statistician of the Arkansas Agricultural Statistics Service LABORATORY: Least Squares Regression Analysis for Defining Trends and Relationships Between Data Series

Chapter V, Class notes Conference during week regarding Price Data for Selected Commodity

Feb 8

Least Squares Regression Analysis for Defining Trends and Relationships Between Data Series

Chapter V, class notes (Autocor) Exercise 2 Due

Feb 9

6 Date Feb 13 Lecture Topic Movement of Prices Over Time Cycles LABORATORY: Movements of Prices Over Time - Analysis of Cycles Feb 15 Feb 20 Movement of Prices Over time Measuring Cycles Movement of Prices Over time Conceptual Basis for Seasonality LABORATORY: Movement of Prices Over Time - Analysis of Cycles Feb 22 Movement of Prices Over Time Measuring Seasonality (Goodwin) Chapter VIII pages 136149. Exercise 3 Due Movement of Prices Over Time Measuring Seasonality FIRST HOUR EXAMINATION Mar 1 Mar 6 Supply Relationships: Theoretical Basis Demand Relationships: Theoretical Basis REVIEW OF FIRST HOUR EXAMINATION AND LABORATORY Mar 8 Mar 9 Mar 13 Estimation of Demand and Supply Class Notes (Estimating Supply & Demand) Assign Exercise 5: Estimating Supply and Demand Equations Demand Relationships: Shifts; Price vs. Income Effects (Goodwin) Chapter X Exercise 4 Due (Goodwin) Chapter IX (Goodwin) Chapter X Assign Exercise 4 Seasonality Class notes (Binary Variables) Class notes (Time Series) Chapter VIII (pp. 136-149) Trend Analysis Due for Term Paper -INCLUDING narrative Reading Assigned Chapter VI, class notes (Time Series) Assign Exercise 3: Cycles Remarks

Feb 23 Feb 27

LABORATORY: Multiple Regression

7 Date Lecture Topic Reading Assigned Remarks

Mar 16

Estimation of Demand and Supply

Class Notes

Cyclical Analysis for Term Paper Due INCLUDING narrative.

Mar 27

Estimation of Demand and Supply: Alternative Models Laboratory: Complete Exercise 5

Class Notes

Mar 29 Mar 30 Apr 3

Estimation of Supply and Demand

Class Notes Exercise 5 Due

Estimation of Supply and Demand

Class Notes

Conference on SupplyDemand model during this week, 4/2-4/6.

Laboratory: Work on Term Paper. Apr 5 Competitiveness Study Dohlman

Apr 10

Estimating Price Discovery Models

Carlberg and Ward

SECOND HOUR EXAMINATION Apr 12 Apr 17 Questionnaire Design Questionnaire Design, cont=d. (Churchill) pp. 396-420 (Churchill) pp. 420-440

Laboratory: Return Second Exam. Work on Term Paper. Apr 19 Apr 24 Questionnaire Design, cont=d Causality Laboratory - Work on term paper Apr 26 Causality (Churchill) pp. 210-217, pp. 225-230 (Churchill) pp. 190-210

8 Date May 1 May 3 Lecture Topic Student Presentations Student Presentations Term paper due by 4:30 p.m. Reading Assigned Remarks

May 8

FINAL EXAMINATION (7:30-9:30 a.m.)

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