Read Alphaliner Newsletter no 37 - 2011 full.pub text version

ALPHALINER

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Volume 2011 Issue 37 06.09.2011 to 12.09.2011

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E-mail: [email protected]

Alphaliner Weekly Newsletter is distributed every Monday. The newsletter is available upon subscription. Information is given in good faith but without guarantee. Please send your feedback, comments and questions to [email protected]

Chart of the week

·

The CCFI freight index shows a strong correlation with the TSA and CTS freight indices, providing freight players with a viable index to be used on indexlinked freight contracts. move last week to simplify the rules for service contracts linked to freightrate indices could pave the way for the wider use of index-linked contracts. paper freight trading volumes on the Chinese SSEFC platform have already reached 90,000 teu per day, which is more than the physical freight volumes on the FE-US and FEEurope trade routes.

Comparison of Freight Indices on the FE-US and FE-Europe trade routes : 2008-2011

140

SCFI to USWC CCFI USWC re-based TSA Index : USWC

3,000

CCFI/CTS Index (2008 = 100)

140 120 100 80

SCFI to N Eur CCFI N. Eur re-based CTS Index FE-Eur

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500

SCFI ex Shanghai $/TEU

CCFI/TSA Index (Jun 2008 = 100)

120 100 80

2,500 2,000 1,500

· FMC's

60 40 20 0 1,000 500 0

SCFI ex Shanghai $/FEU

60 40 20 0

Mar-09 May-10 Aug-08 Dec-10 Oct-09 Jan-08 Jul-11

· Current

1,000 500 0

Mar-09

May-10

Aug-08

Dec-10

Oct-09

Jan-08

Jul-11

© Alphaliner

Re-based CCFI and SCFI are based on monthly averages of weekly published figures

INSIDE THIS ISSUE:

IndexIndex-linked contracts to take 1 off Comparison of main freight indices 3

Index-linked rate contracts set to take off

The Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) in August published its revenue index for the first time. The index is intended to track the average freight rate on the eastbound transpacific trade. The TSA revenue index joins several container freight rate indices that have emerged within the last few years, including the CCFI, SCFI, CTS and the newly-launched WCI. Through this initiative, the TSA intends to show how average freight rates have evolved since 2010. The TSA said that the index will serve a specific purpose by "tracking revenue trends that can be applied in longer-term contracts and as a pricing stabilization tool." Further, it points out that the competing third-party indices presently available to the market have limitations. In particular, thirdparty indices fail to reflect the actual market rates, as they are alleged to rely on a sample of carriers and NVOCCs that is not representative of the market. Although the carriers are suspicious of third party indices, Alphaliner's comparison of the TSA Index and of the carrier-controlled CTS Index with the widely quoted CCFI published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that there is a high correlation between the TSA/CTS Index and the CCFI. Between 2010 and July 2011, the published TSA/CTS Indices and the CCFI were positively correlated at 84% and 99% respectively. The TSA/CTS is also positively correlated to the spot market-based SCFI rate index at 71% and 97% respectively.

Service Updates 4 Evergreen to split UAM pendulum Evergreen alters NE AsiaAustralia slot links Maersk and CMA CGM alter FEMed joint service Maerk to introduce largest-ever feeder of 5,500 teu Hainan POS expands intra-Asia service PDL opts for dedicated NZTahiti service Corporate Updates 7 Evergreen post 1H net profit of $47M Delivery Updates 8 Maersk takes CSAV 8,000 teu newbuildings September Deliveries Terminal Updates 9 Evergreen shifts CES Med hub from Taranto to Piraeus

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Alphaliner Newsletter no 37 - 2011 full.pub