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OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER

MINISTRY OF STATE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN KENYA AND OTHER ARID LANDS ARID LANDS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PROJECT II

DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN - MAY 2011 Isiolo, Garbatulla and Merti Districts Warning stages

Livelihood Zone Pastoral- all species Agro pastoral Casual waged labour Firewood/ Charcoal/ pastoral District

Warning stage Emergency Alarm Alarm Alarm Alarm/ emergency

Trend

Worsening Deteriorating No change Worsening Worsening

Long dry

period

Seasonal Calendar

Short dry period

Long dry

Period - (Atholes)

Short rain (agaya)

Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jan Feb Mar S/R Harvest Short dry period (Bon-agaya)

Apr May Jun L/R Start kidding/lambing Milk increases Long rain start.

Jul

Aug

Start of s/rain milk increases Short rain start (20 th Oct)

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

Situation overview The districts remained dry with prevailing severe drought in all livelihood zones due to consecutive rainfall season failures of March - April 2011 and 2010. Severe food security problems are experienced following total crop failures and increased food prices coupled with depressed livestock body weight. Livestock concentration remained in the dry season grazing rangeland of Hawaye, Kom, Duma and Urura. Livestock mortalities increased in Merti and Sericho divisions Pasture access in the dry season zones worsened from average of 30km (April 2011) to 32km (may 2011) mainly in the dry seasons rangeland of Duma, Yamicha Water access and availability worsened in both divisions. The worst affected centers remained lafe, Kipsing, Malkagalla, Bassa, Lakole and Belgesh. Access distances for household increased to an average of 16 km, being highest in Bassa translated to 10 hours of water search. Livestock watering after two days is common in most of the areas as distances between water and pasture access widened. Livestock mortality rate was 8.3 %( cattle), 2.28 %( goat) and 4.8 %( sheep).The mortalities increased by 4% for cattle and 2.5% for sheep. The most affected centres were sericho, merti, Garbatulla and Oldonyiro. Average percentage of children who are at risk of malnutrition as measured through MUAC was 32% of the total children sampled. The MUAC measurements worsened by 3% compared to 29% of the total children at risk of malnutrition over April 2011. Recommendations to District Steering Group and Kenya Food Security Meeting Water intervention for both Human and Livestock ( DSG/KFSSG) Peace building and conflict resolution mechanisms should be enhanced in Garbatulla and Merti districts.(DSG) Water tankering interventions should also cover schools in Merti, Cheraab, Sericho and Oldonyiro divisions (DSG/stakeholders). Increased general foods and supplementary to vulnerable groups (DSG/stakeholders). Water trucking and Hay provisions for livestock Planned and coordinated livestock off take. Drilling of boreholes to alleviate water shortages. Current interventions / Coping Strategies A) Non ­Food interventions I) Livestock Emergency livestock slaughter of Shoats by Ministry of Livestock and VSF (NGO) in Merti and Sericho divisions. Water Emergency fuel subsidy to all boreholes by Aridlands resource management project through the support of ministry of development of Northern Kenya and Aridlands. Food security Increase in Food beneficiary numbers by Kenya food steering group/DSG by 28280 persons, the increment was distributed across the three districts evenly. EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

Mid-P Merti (NGO) supported 80 households per location in 8 locations in Merti and Sericho with monthly food voucher subsidy amounting to Ksh1500 each. 1.0 Environmental indicators (Stability) 1.1. Rainfall There was no rainfall in the three districts of Isiolo, Merti and Garbatulla which is normal compared to previous season. However, the current drought conditions experienced in all livelihood zones necessitated by previous seasons failures is not normal. Severe food and water shortages for both human and livestock are experienced. They were no rainfall in all sample sites. All livelihood zones remained extremely dry with severe drought conditions.

The graph below represents rainfall for May 2011 compared to long term mean 2004-2010

Isiolo district cumulative average rainfalls for May 2011 as compared to long term mean 2004 - 2010

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Rainfall in mm

Jan 4.5 0

Feb 1.3 0

Mar 10 1.1

Apr 7.2 3.5

May 2.4 0

Jun 1.1

Jul 2.3

Aug 1.1

Sept 1.2

Oct. 4.5

Nov. 4

Dec 4

2004-2010 2011

month source- aridlands and agriculture office

1.2 Condition of natural vegetation and pasture The quality of pasture and vegetation deteriorated further compared to previous month in the pastoral zones of Merti, sericho, Garbatulla and Oldonyiro. This is due to the prevailing drought conditions. Pastures and vegetations are completely depleted in the dry season grazing areas as livestock only depends on pieces of broken grasses and fallen leaves. The available poor quality forage cannot support livestock beyond May 2011. Pasture is completely depleted in the dry season grazing areas that animals are concentrated in. The situation is worse than last month, April 2011. The pastoral livelihood of Merti, Cheraab, Oldonyiro and sericho are the most affected.

1.2.1 Distances to grazing areas The distances of access to forage this month (May 2011) increased to an average of 32 km, mainly in the dry season rangelands of Duma, Urura of Merti District. Distances of access for livestock also increased in Sericho, Kinna and Garbatulla Divisions. Constraints hindering forage access are water shortages, conflicts, ticks and tsetse fly infestation.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

Additional constraint hindering forage access and utilization is livestock influxes and concentration at water points. 1.3 Water source and availability Boreholes and shallows wells are main sources over the month (May 2011). Most of the rivers mainly Waso Nyiro, Isiolo River and Bisan adi have dried up due to the current drought. This has caused serious water shortages to the main urban centre (Isiolo town) where water rationing is currently undertaken. Distances of access to water for domestic and livestock increased over the month. Household access distances was highest in Cherab division being 16km covered in about 10hrs.High concentration of livestock at water sources is a major constraints. Livestock access distance was high in Duma, Urura rangelands being 26-30km one way for cattle and 60 km for camels one way.

The graph below indicates water sources and percentage of household using them during the month (May 2011) compared to normal.

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 % HH normally depends HH for current month %

Rivers Borehole Shallow wells Piped systems Pans/Dams

Shallow wells depth increased to an average of 50- 60fts requiring 5-10 persons average, the highest was Hawaye wells that required 10 persons to draw water. ( May 2011).High concentration of both livestock and Human at water sources is a major constraint. Low yield, high concentration and increased depth were a constraint among shallow well users while frequent breakdown and reduced yield was identified among the boreholes. 1.4. Emerging issues Pasture depleted in the dry season grazing areas. Water shortages in the rangeland increased. Quality and Quantity of pasture worsened in all livelihood zones. 1.4.1. Insecurity/conflict/displacement Frequent cattle rustling/raids are being experienced in Kom, Duma rangelands where livestock from Wajir, Isiolo, merti and Samburu East are concentrated.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

1.4.2. Migration Frequent migration within the rangeland areas intensified due to pasture Depletion. Migration of livestock from the dry season rangelands of Kom, Shaba to Duma, Sabarwawa rangelands. 1.4.3. Implications on food security Food security situation is worse due to failed rainfall, depletion of pasture and water shortages 2.0. Rural Economy Indicators (Food availability) 2.1. Livestock production 2.1.2. Livestock body Condition The livestock body condition worsened this month (May 2011) compared to April (2011). The body weight depreciation is due to pasture depletion, long distances and disease. The body weight has reduced severely among sheep, Goats and cattle. 2.1.3 Livestock disease No major livestock disease outbreaks were reported over the month (May 2011) Severe emaciation, swellings of head among sheep and Goats in Kinna, Kipsing and Boji was reported. Tse-tse fly infestation was rampant in Kinna and Duse rangelands. There is need for an intervention to curb the problem. 2.1.4 Milk production The average milk production for (May 2011) was 20 bottles of 750mls where 15 bottles were used for household consumption. The current production was less by 4 bottles of 750 mls compared to April (2011) production. The production was high in central division 76 bottles of 750mls and lower in sericho being 12 bottles of same quantity. The observed reduction in productions was due to rainfall failure and pasture depletion.

The graph below shows household milk consumption from June 2010 to May 2011. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

2.0 Crop production 2.2.1 Timeliness and status of crop production activities No crop farming is ongoing in the larger pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The crops previously planted over March, April did not progress to maturity due to rainfall failure. 2.2.3 Harvests There were no Harvests in the entire county, it's not normal compared to previous season in a normal year.

2.3 Implications on food security The food security situation will deteriorate as a result of livestock migration, reduced body weight, conflicts and failed rainfall for the current season. 3.0 Access to food 3.1. Livestock marketing 3.1.1. Cattle prices Isiolo May 2011 average cattle prices at household level vs long term mean (2004-2010)

14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0

kshs

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

sept

Oct. 9293

Nov. 7482

Dec 9465

2004-2010 9929 10151 10227 11793 9634 12273 10728 10333 7816 2011 11200 10800 9087 13067 8945 Month Source; ALRMP sample sites N=15 x 30

The District average cattle price reduced from kshs.13067 (April 2011) to Kshs. 8945 (May 2011) translating to 31% depreciations. The price reductions is attributed to current drought conditions that has caused pasture depletions and water shortages leading to livestock body weight depreciations.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

3.1.2 Goat prices Isiolo May 2011 Average Goat prices at household level Vs Long term mean (2004-2010) 2500

2000 1500 1000 500 0 Kshs.

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct. Nov.

Dec

2004-2010 1277 1571 1647 1573 1702 1704 1779 1805 1802 1824 2287 1906 2011 2352 2297 2279 1837 1898 Source; ALRMP sample sites Month N=15 x 30

The average Goat price slightly increased from kshs.1837 (April 2011) to kshs.1898 (May 2011) translating to 3.3% increase. The slight price increase was due to the low supply of Goats to the market, while majority of Goats have depreciated in weight as a result of depleted pasture. The prices are high in central and lower in Sericho division being Ksh2400 and Ksh1000 respectively. 3.1.3 Sheep prices Isiolo May 2011 average sheep prices at household level vs long term mean 2004-2010

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 prices in kshs

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct.

Nov.

Dec

2004-2010 1110 1100 1138 1279 1173 1166 1254 1482 1463 1362 1374 1397 2011 1594 1605 1550 2084 1527 Month Source; ALRMP sample sites: N=15 x30

The average district price of sheep was Ksh2084 (April 2011). The price increased by 34% compared to march 2011 price of Ksh1550. The prices were high in Kinna division being kshs.2490 and lower in Garbatulla being Ksh1525 respectively.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

3.4 Crop prices 3.4.1 Maize prices

Isiolo May 2011 average maize prices at household level vs long term mean 2004-2010

40 30 20 10 0 2004-2010 2011

kshs

Jan 35 35

Feb 33 35

Mar 31 36

Apr 26 36

May 27 36

Jun 28

Jul 28

Aug 29

Sept Oct. Nov. 30 30 33

Dec 33

Source; ALRMP sample sites

Month N= 15 X 30

The District average maize price remained constant kshs.36 per kilogram. The prices are high in Merti and Sericho divisions where a kilogram was traded at kshs.40.Despite the high prices, theres scarcity of maize commodity in the market mainly the pastoral livelihood zones. 3.4.2 Posho prices The price of posho kept on increasing on weekly basis from last month. This is attributed to the shortages of maize in the market. The prices increased from kshs.1700 (April 2011) to Kshs. 2500 (May 2011) per 50kg bags. The observed increases are due to limited cereals availability and increased demand from pastoralists. 3.4.4. Beans prices

Isiolo May 2011 beans prices at household level vs longterm mean 2004-2010

100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb 2004-2010 74 2011 85 73 85 prices in kshs

Ma Ma Apr Jun r y 73 85 65 85 66 85 74

Jul 74

Aug 77

Sep Oct Nov Dec t . . 78 79 81 81

Month N= 15 x30

Source; ALRMP; sample sites

The district average price of beans remained constant at kshs.85 per kilogram as April 2011 price. The price will likely increase due to the shortages of beans in the markets,

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

mostly in the pastoral areas. The prices of beans are high in merti and sericho divisions where a kilogram was traded at Ksh100. 3.4.3 Other food prices The prices of sugar and cooking oil also increased exorbitantly during the reporting periods. This was due to commodity shortages and current drought where business people take advantage of the situations. The prices of sugar increased to kshs.120 per kilogram from April 2011price of Ksh 95. A glass of cooking oil is now traded at Ksh100.This is a serious situation that has made terms of trade for pastoralists to be worse.

3.5 Income 3.5.1 Crop income There was no crop income earned by households in the month of May 2011. 3.5.2 Livestock income The livestock income to household this month (May 2011) represented 40 % of the total incomes. The income from this source reduced by 1% compared to 41% earned by households over April (2011). Other incomes to households this month (May 2011) was from charcoal 18%, casual labour 9%, petty trade 6% and gift items 18%. .

The pie-chart below represents Isiolo income sources at household level for May 2011

Isiolo district income sources at household level May 2011

Sales of livestock 6% 9% 18% 18% 9% 40% Gifts Sale of charcoal Casual labour Pety trading others N= 15 X 30

Source; ALRMP sample sites

The livestock income increased by 1% while income from Gift items reduced by 3%. Income from charcoal and casual labour increased by 10% and 3% respectively. This means that compared to last month (April 2011), more household's depended on charcoal and casual labour 3.6 Implications on food security The food security situation is worse in all livelihood zones. This was because of reduced livestock body weight, prices and increased food commodity prices. EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

4.0 Human welfare indicators (Utilisation of food) 4.1 Nutrition status

Isiolo May 2011 nutrition status of children vs 2006-2010 average as measured through MUAC

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006-2010 2011

mm

Jan 23 28

Feb 28 28

Mar 26 25

Apr May 22 29 17 32

Jun 21

Jul 21

Aug Sept Oct. Nov. Dec 22 21 22 23 26

Month Source; ALRMP sample sites N=15X30X5

The district average percentage of children who are at risk of malnutrition as measured through MUAC was 32% of the total children sampled across 15 sites. The average district MUAC percentages worsened by 3% compared to 29% recorded over April 2011 measurement. The MUAC percentages were also worse by 15% compared to the long-term mean the same period. The MUAC measurements were high in Oldonyiro, Merti and Sericho divisions being 34%, 48% and 39% respectively. The numbers of children who are at risk of malnutrition are likely to increase in the coming months due to the failure of rainfalls for current seasons, livestock migration away from the households, reduced livestock body weight, deaths and increased food prices 4.2 Human health The health situation is fair at the moment but likely to deteriorate due to water shortages and movement of people away from established Health facilities. Current interventions / Coping Strategies B) Non ­food interventions Emergency livestock slaughter of Shoats by ministry of livestock and VSF (NGO) in Merti and Sericho divisions. Emergency fuel subsidy to all boreholes by Aridlands resource management project through the support of ministry of development of Northern Kenya and Aridlands. Increase in Food beneficiary numbers by Kenya food steering group/DSG by 28280 persons, the increment was distributed across the three districts evenly. Mid-P Merti (NGO) supported 80 households per locations for 8 locations in Merti and Sericho for monthly cash subsidy of Ksh1500 each. 5.0 Recommendation for action to mitigate food insecurity in the districts A. Food intervention Type of intervention Action The food for assets programmes should be WFP/KFSG EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

hastened and Expanded The latest general food adjustments by KFSSG should be rolled out urgently Increased provision of emergency supplementary foods to the vulnerable groups in Merti, Oldonyiro, Cherab, Sericho and Garbatulla divisions. Slaughter of livestock for food Relief in all pastoral areas B. Non ­ food interventions Type of intervention Peace building and conflict resolution interventions in Merti, Kinna and central divisions. Mass livestock Deworming and investigation into the mass livestock deaths at Merti Planned and coordinated livestock off takes Water trucking and Hay provision for livestock Certified seeds provision to farmers Domestic water tankering to Dadachabasa,Dakiye,malkagalla,badana and Lakole Drilling of emergency boreholes in Eladi,Dololo dakiye and Hawaye District wide Nutritional survey should be undertaken Continuous Fuel subsidy provision to all domestic and strategic reserve boreholes

WFP/KFSSG

Stakeholders

Action Peace committees, provincial administration

Livestock /veterinary department Ministry of livestock Ministry of water and livestock Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of water/stakeholders. Ministry of water/stakeholders Stakeholders/DSG DSG/Ministry of Northern Kenya/stakeholders

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MAY 2011/ ISIOLO DISTRICT

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