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Rising Anti-Americanism, Scorn for Bush's Economic Management Skills, and an English-French Divide: An Exclusive COMPAS/Global Television Poll

COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research November 25-27, 2004

Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

1.0. Overview

Canadians, most especially French-speaking Canadians, are becoming increasingly anti-American, according to a national COMPAS poll conducted exclusively for Global Television News November 25-27, 2004. The rise in anti-Americanism is fuelled by a major fall in regard for President George W. Bush from the very high esteem in which he was held by Canadians shortly after 9/11. The decline in respect for the U.S. President is driven above all by disappointment with his management of the economy. Pundits criticize his seeming unilateralism in foreign policy and his war on terrorism. But the Canadian public gives him a good performance score for defense of American interests and a passable score for fighting terror. Canadians are frustrated by his management of the economy, for which they give him a definite failing grade. Extensive statistical analysis reveals that negative public assessments of Bush's economic skills are the main driver of negative public assessments of him as President and a major factor in the rise of anti-Americanism. A by product of rising anti-Americanism is a decline in support for Canada-U.S. harmonization of anti-terrorism law, support for which is especially low among French-speakers. A more than 2:1 majority of Canadians supports tougher immigration practices but this majority falls short of the more than 9:1 majority with this view in the aftermath of 9/11.

2 www.compas.ca

Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

2.0. Jump in Anti-Americanism

1.1. Francophones United in Their Increased AntiAmericanism while Anglophones Are Divided

The Canadian public reports becoming somewhat more anti-American with language being a major fault line on the issue, according to a national COMPAS poll conducted exclusively for Global Television News November 25-27. Among French-speakers, the number of people who report having become more anti-American dwarfs 5:1 the number of people who have become more pro-American--61% vs. 12%, as shown in table 2.1. In English-Canada, those who have become more anti-American are also more numerous but a large minority say they have become more proAmerican--23% more pro-American vs. 48% more anti-American. Table 2.1: Anti-Americanism1 A lot more pro-American lately Somewhat more Same volunteered Somewhat more anti-American A lot more DNK volunteered Ratio of Anti-American to Pro-American calculated cda 8 15 26 27 21 3 2:1 eng 9 17 26 25 19 4 1.7 fr 5 7 26 34 27 1 5.1

1

Speaking personally, have you become ROTATE POLES a lot more pro-American lately somewhat more pro-American, VOLUNTEERED, UNPROMPTED stayed the same, somewhat more anti-American, or a lot more anti-American?

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Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

2.2. Fall in Support for Harmonization of Anti-Terrorism Law

In keeping with the above evidence of an increase in anti-American feeling, especially in French-Canada, the Canadian public is much less supportive of the harmonization of anti-terrorism policy than it was in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, as shown in table 2.2a: A 2:1 majority still favours much tougher immigration policies but this is down from a ratio of more than 9:1; Canadians are now divided over harmonization of anti-terrorism laws with the United States while they overwhelmingly favoured such harmonization in the immediate shadow of the Al Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The pattern of a far greater reported increase in anti-Americanism among French-speakers is paralleled by less support for tough immigration policies among French-speakers as well as less support for and more opposition to harmonization of anti-terrorism laws with the United States, as shown in table 2.2b.

4 www.compas.ca

Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

Table 2.2a: Attitudes to Terrorism Policy Harmonization IN BETWEE N/ PART LY 3 4

DATE

YES

NO

DNK

Canada should adopt much tougher laws and practices with regard to immigration and refugees. Canada should harmonize our antiterrorism laws with the U.S. as quickly as possible as the most effective way for protecting our country from terrorists gaining entry and using our soil as a base of operations Canada should definitely oppose harmonizing our laws with the Americans because doing so would threaten our independence and sovereignty

27Sept 01 27Nov0 4 27Sept 01 27Nov0 4 27Sept 01 27Nov0 4

85 65

9 28

3 3

76

17

4

3

51 34 57

44 57 35

3 3 4

3 6 4

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Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

Table 2.2b: Attitudes to Terrorism Policy Harmonization-- English vs. French, 27 November, 20042 IN BETWEE N/ PART LY 3 7 2

YES

NO

DNK

Canada should adopt much tougher laws and practices with regard to immigration and refugees. Canada should harmonize our antiterrorism laws with the U.S. as quickly as possible as the most effective way for protecting our country from terrorists gaining entry and using our soil as a base of operations Canada should definitely oppose harmonizing our laws with the Americans because doing so would threaten our independence and sovereignty

Eng Fr Eng

68 56 52

27 31 43

2 7 3

Fr Eng Fr

44 56 60

46 38 27

7 3 8

4 3 5

2

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree (RECORD UNPROMPTED in between vs. dnk) with each of the following opinions about what Canada should do about terrorism? ROTATE Canada should harmonize our anti-terrorism laws with the U.S. as quickly as possible as the most effective way for protecting our country from terrorists gaining entry and using our soil as a base of operations, Canada should definitely oppose harmonizing our laws with the Americans because doing so would threaten our independence and sovereignty, Canada should adopt much tougher laws and practices with regard to immigration and refugees.

6 www.compas.ca

Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

3.0. Roller Coaster Ride for Bush

3.1. Collapse of Enthusiasm for Bush but Grudging Respect for His Standing Up for United States' Interests

In the immediate shadow of 9/11 President Bush earned a performance score of 73 on a 100 point, school report card-type scale. This was the highest score ever given by Canadians to a public figure. But today his performance rating has fallen to 42, as shown in table 2.1a. At 58, Prime Minister Martin's perceived performance is certainly higher than Bush's, albeit no higher than Jean Chretien's (61) in the aftermath of 9/11.3

Table 3.1a: Mean Performance Scores in General leader Prime Minister Paul Martin U.S. President George W. Bush 27Sept01 61 (Chretien) 73 Cda 27Nov04 58 42 eng fr. 27Nov04 58 56 43 37

3

Using a 100 point school report card-type scale where 100 is the best job performance score and zero, the worst score, please score the job performance of each of the following... (READ LIST, ROTATE FIRST TWO WITH EACH OTHER AND REMAINDER WITH EACH OTHER) U.S. President George W. Bush, Prime Minister Paul Martin, George Bush for standing up for Americans, Paul Martin for standing up for Canadians, George Bush for dealing with terrorism, Paul Martin for dealing with terrorism, George Bush for managing the economy, Paul Martin for managing the economy.

7 www.compas.ca

Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

Table 3.1b: Mean Performance Scores for Specific Tasks leader George Bush for standing up for Americans Paul Martin for standing up for Canadians Paul Martin for managing the economy George Bush for dealing with terrorism Paul Martin for dealing with terrorism George Bush for managing the economy Cda 61 60 59 53 50 42 eng 63 60 58 54 51 42 fr. 52 58 62 47 50 43

While Canadians have lost their previous enthusiasm for Bush, they retain a grudging respect for his standing up in defense of American interests. For doing so, he earns an average performance score of 61--63 among English-speakers, as shown in table 3.1b. Meanwhile he earns a 53 grade for combating terrorism along with a failing grade of 42 for managing the economy.

3.2. Poor Economic Management the Key to Bush's Fate

While commentators and political scientists may impugn Bush's competence in handling of terrorism, for the average Canadian the President's Achilles' heel is his handling of economic matters. His performance score for managing the economy is so much lower than his score for handling terrorism and especially for standing up for U.S. interests. Bush's poor economic performance score is the main factor in his poor overall score. This causal relationship emerges from an advanced multivariate statistical technique known as "causal modeling" by means of stepwise multiple regression. Among Canadians as a whole, the main statistical driver of respect for Bush's general performance is respect for his performance managing the economy.

8 www.compas.ca

Global TV Survey Canadian Opinion during President Bush's Visit to Canada

English-Canadians feel this way strongly. If they value highly his economic management, they tend to value highly his performance as a whole. But few value highly his management of the economy. French-Canadians use a different yardstick for measuring Bush's performance. For francophones, the key statistical driver is whether they have a high regard for his performance in standing up for American interests. His management of economy much less important. For Englishand French-speakers alike, Bush's skill in handling terrorism is a minor factor in their judgment of his overall performance.

4.0. Methods

A representative sample of n=508 was interviewed by professional interviewers using CATI technology November 25-27, 2004. The principal investigators were Conrad Winn and Tamara Gottlieb.

9 www.compas.ca

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