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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

A Look at Where We Have Been and Where We Are Going

The Center for Strategic Space Studies

Joshua Hartman Kevin J. Resch

September 2011

Contents

Executive Summary 1 Introduction 3 Strategic Environment 4 Today's Commercial GEOINT Services 5 The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services 6 Implications on TCPED and the Future 9 Transition to the Future 12 Government Integration of Future Commercial GEOINT Services 15

Mapping and Cartography 15 Collaborative Operations 16 Sensitive Operations 17

Investment Strategy 17 Policy Considerations 18 Findings and Recommendations 20

Conclusion 25

Glossary 26 About the Authors 27 Bibliography of Interviews 29

Executive Summary

hisreportcaptureskeyshiftsintheGEOINTindustryandprovidesrecommendationsregardingtheevolution ofcommercialGEOINTservicesoverthenextfivetosevenyearsUnderstandingtheseshiftsandtheassociatedopportunitieswillenableindustrytoanticipatethetrendsshapingthemarketandtobuildsustainableandprofitablebusinessmodelsAnticipatingthefuturecommercialGEOINTservicesandproductscangivegovernment andcommercialuserstheopportunitytoshapethosechangesandplanforeffectiveintegrationintotheiractivities TheevolutionoftheCommercialGEOINTshowssurprisinghistoricalsimilaritytoanotherindustryWhenHenry FordfirstofferedtheModel-T,consumerscouldgetanycolortheywanted--aslongasitwasblackDespiteitsfundamentalimpactontoday'sworld,theautomobileinitsearlystagescouldatbestbedescribedasrudimentaryAsthe industrymaturedandbothconsumersandproducersbecamemoresophisticated,theformanduseofautomobiles evolvedintowhatwehavetodayEquallyimportant,asthisnewtechnologytouchedmorebusinessesandconsumers, amultitudeofspin-offproductsandservicesemergedasaresult Asthe20thanniversaryofUScommercialremotesensingapproaches,theindustryispoisedforasimilarevolutionFuturecommercialGEOINTproductandserviceofferingswilllookvastlydifferentToday'scommercial GEOINTcompanies(referredtointhepaperascommercialimagerycompanies)buildsatellitesandsellimages Today'sproductsandgoodsexchangedrevolvearoundthecollectionanddisseminationofimagesGEOINTusers buyimagesandapplythemtorudimentaryuseMuchlikeintheearlystagesoftheautomobileindustry,consumers oftenseetoday'sproductsandservicesasnicetohave,butnotessential FuturecommercialGEOINTproductsandserviceswilllookandfunctionverydifferentlyImageswillbecritical "rawmaterial"thatprovidethefoundationforGEOINT--muchassteelwasfoundationalforModel-TmanufacturersDiscoveryandintegrationofnew"rawmaterials"willrevolutionizeGEOINTproductsandservices,stimulatemarketplacegrowth,andspurnewindustriesnotimaginedbefore Fueling these changes are tremendous commercial data and technology advancements in GEOINT and related industriesCommercialcompanieswithgrowingfootprintsinthegeospatialarenahaveinmanycasesadvancedfar beyondcurrentgovernmentcapabilitiesandhavesurpassedplansforfuturedevelopmentThesecompanieshavedevelopedinformationtechnologyarchitecturesandprocessesthatofferrapiddatamining,applicationdevelopment, cloudcomputing,anddataexposureTheemergingplayersofferfreshperspectivesthatwillpropeltheindustryinto anewgenerationofhighvaluecommercialGEOINTproductsandservices ChangeswilloccurinconsumerbehavioraswellConsumerswillcontinuetogravitatetowardusingmobilehandheld devices, leveraging the growth in computing power, exploiting locally residing applications, and becoming collectorsthroughcrowdsourcingactivityThesedynamicswillcreatea"DataBazaar"environmentwheretheuser issurroundedbynewandever-changingdatasourcesTheGEOINTcommunity'schallengewillbetorapidlydiscover,sort,andintegratethespecificcontenttosolvetheneedsofindividualusersFailuretoharnessthepowerfrom thevolumesofthisdatainaresponsiblewaywillputtheUSatastrategicdisadvantageandcallintoquestionits futureabilitytorespondtointernationalcrises Toaddressthischangingenvironment,industryandgovernmentshouldtakeproactivemeasures(SeespecificFindingsandRecommendationsbeginningonpage20)Industryandgovernmentshould:

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· Accelerate the shift to user-centric products, services, and processes UserswithrapidlyevolvingknowledgerequirementswilldrivethefutureThecollectionassetorsourcewill oftenbeoflittleinteresttotheuser;timeliness,multiplicityofchoices,measureofconfidence,customization, anddecisionenablementwilldriveusersatisfactionOperatingwithinaQuery-Mine-Assemble-DisseminateIntegrate(QMADI)-orientedmodelwillstimulateGEOINTprocessesabletosatisfyfutureuserknowledge requirementsNGAandcommercialGEOINTcompaniesshouldadjusttheirprocessesandintegratethe QMADImodelintooperations · Recognize and respond to new paradigms Thisprocessrequiresfindingaproperbalancebetweensecurityrequirementsandtheopenandshareable nature of commercial GEOINT Properly developed security and verification considerations will enable broaderuseofcommercialGEOINTNGAshouldadoptastandardmeasureforGEOINTdataveracity andconfidence Secondly,developmentanduseofapplicationsmustbedecentralizedThiswilldriveacceptanceofnewanalysisandexploitationapproaches Next,increasedaccesstoexpandeddatasourcesandcontentwillfuelashiftawayfromtheoldimagerymodel ofGEOINTStrategiesmustbedevelopedtotapintocrowdsourcingandrecognizetheroleofconsumersas collectors Finally,spatialresolutioncannotremaintheonlydeterminantofGEOINTqualityNewmeasuresofmerit (timeliness,currency,volume,confidence,accuracyofconclusion)mustbeadopted

· Transition the market to leverage new trends and emerging capabilities AbroadrangeofactivitiesmustoccurtoensurethistransitionNGAshouldencouragerapidmarkettransition by incentivizing development of new commercial GEOINT content Current commercial imagery companies must accelerate evolution of their business model, revenue structure, and service and product offeringsInparallel,NGAshouldcultivaterelationshipswithnewGEOINTcompaniesThiswillrequire NGA to explore new commercial GEOINT business and operational models for commercial GEOINT Atanationallevel,targetedchangetoUSpolicyandexistinglicensingregimecanpromotestrengthand vitalityinthecommercialGEOINTmarketFuturepolicyshouldencourageinnovationfromcommercial GEOINTserviceprovidersandpromotenewgrowthincommercialmarketsectors ThecommercialGEOINTmarketplacehasreachedamajorcrossroadinitsevolution--shiftingfromadata-scarce industry to a fluid, data-rich field This study has opened our eyes to the extent to which advances in the nontraditionalGEOINTmarketplacewillshapethefutureofthisindustryandthereforetherangeofproductsand servicesavailabletotheUSgovernmentThecommercialGEOINTenvironmentwewillexperienceinthenext fivetosevenyearswillbetransformedbyatremendousexpansioninnewandinnovativecapabilitiesLeveraging thesecapabilitieswillrequireaconcertedeffortonthepartofNGA,itsgovernmentcustomersandpartners,currentcommercialbusinesspartners,andemergingindustryplayers

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Introduction

hetrendbytheUSgovernmenttousecommercialservicesinplaceoftraditionallygovernmentactivitycontinuestogrowIncreasingly,theseserviceshavebecomemoreandmoretechnicalinnatureExamplesinclude theuseofweatherdataandsatellitecommunicationsAnotherareaofparticulargrowthhasbeenthatofcommercialimageryservicestosupportthewarfighter,nationalsecurity,naturaldisastermanagementandotheremerging requirementsSincethecreationoftheUScommercialremotesensingmarketintheearly'90s,almostexclusively bygovernmentinterests,thedemandforcommercialimageryhassteadilyincreasedInSeptember2010,theaward ofmulti-billiondollarcontractsover10yearstotwocommercialimagerycompaniesdemonstratedalong-term commitmenttointegratecommercialservicesbytheNationalGeospatial-IntelligenceAgency(NGA)andbyextensiontherestoftheUSgovernment However,thenatureofthatserviceisrapidlychangingTheUSgovernment,particularlythenationalandhomelandsecuritycommunities,doesnotfindthesamesatisfactioninimageryaloneThesecommunitieslooktodayto understandtheactivity--past,present,andfuture--associatedwithagivenlocationAstillimagealonedoesnot sufficeThereforecommercialgeospatialintelligence(GEOINT)1productsandserviceshavebeguntoaugment commercialimagerypurchasesThesenewGEOINTserviceswilloffersignificantcontributionstotheUSgovernmentusersinthefuture Giventhecontentofrecentlycompletedandexpectedrewritesofnational-levelpolicydocuments,2theUShasavested securityinterestinmaintaininggloballeadershipincommercialGEOINTindustriesChangesinGEOINTplatforms providemilitaryuserswithunprecedentedvolumesofdata,innear-real-timeandtailoredtotheirspecificneedsThese changes,combinedwiththeboomincommercialinformationtechnologyandtools,aredrivingtheIntelligenceCommunitytoreconsiderhowitacquiresandmanagesdatabeforeturningitintocontentandknowledgeChangesintools, technology,anddatavolumeshaveopenedthedoortonewGEOINTapproachesthatwerenotimaginablejustafew yearsagoChangehascreatedtheneedforafreshperspectiveoncommercialGEOINTservices Leapsincommercialtechnology,inconjunctionwithadvancesinforeigncapabilities,willdriveUSgovernmentapproachestocommercialGEOINTcapabilitiesandsolutionsUseofcommercialGEOINTincurrentnationalsecurity operationscontinuestoredefineitstraditionalmeasures,butincreaseddemandinsupportofnon-traditionalmissions likehomelandsecurityandborderpatrol,disastermanagement,andlawenforcementeffortsaddpressuretothegrowingdemandforcommercialGEOINTThesetrendsreinforcetheneedforaforward-reaching,comprehensive,wholeof-the-governmentstrategytokeeppacewithandleveragecommercialGEOINTservicescapabilities Inouropinion,thevisionlaidoutbythenewNGADirectorcorrectlyassessesthefuturetrends,reflectingandintegratingmanyofthesecatalystsforchange3However,thevisiondoesnotsufficientlyemphasizetheroleofcommercialGEOINTinthefuture,especiallyinlightoftherecentmulti-billiondollarawardtoaportionoftheindustry ThetransitiontothisvisionisnecessaryforsuccessofthefutureofNGA,butitmustincludecommercialGEOINT servicesSuchatransitionmustharnesstheevolvingdynamicsofthecommercialGEOINTmarketplaceItshould encouragedevelopmentofastrategythatleveragesthecommercialindustrytoexecuteNGA'sfuturemission

1 ThispaperdefinescommercialGEOINTastheuseofcommerciallyprovided,geo-referencedinformationtodescribe,assess,andvisuallydepict physicalandnon-physicalfeatures,activities,andknowledge 2 TheNationalSecuritySpaceStrategy,completedinJanuary2011,discussestheimportanceofcommercialservicesfornationalsecuritypurposes (http://wwwdefensegov/releases/releaseaspx?releaseid=14245) A Commercial Remote Sensing Space Policy rewrite by the White House will beginintheFallof2011 3 Long,Letitia"PuttingthePowerofGEOINTinYourHands,"GEOINTSymposiumspeech,2Nov2010https://www1ngamil/Newsroom/ PressReleases/Press%20Releases/nga_10_12_speechpdf

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ForthepurposeofidentifyingtransitionapproachesforconsiderationofNGAandcommercialindustry,thispaper providesaviewofcommercialGEOINTservicesavailableinthefive-toseven-yeartimeframeTodoso,wewill describethecurrentstrategicenvironment,today'sandtomorrow'susesofcommercialGEOINT,implicationsfor theknowledgedevelopmentprocess,andkeyareasforgovernmentleadershipandcommercialeffort

Strategic Environment

hepost-ColdWarstrategicsecuritylandscapeismarkedlydifferentfromthatfacedjustafewdecadesagoAgeoldrivalries,territorialsquabbles,religiousextremism,andculturaldifferencesthatwerepreviouslyovershadowedhavenowresurfacedTheimplicationsoftheserealitieshaveforcedandwillcontinuetoforcedramaticshifts innationalsecuritystrategiesandtodrivestrategicrealignmentstoaddressemergingthreatsRedirectionofUS governmentactivitiesandshiftsinthe21stCenturyenvironmentwillemphasizenewoperationalfocusareasand createdifferentopportunitiesforanddemandsoftheindustrialbaseMoreover,GEOINT'semerginghumanitarian roleinsupportingcrisisandnaturaldisastermanagement,itsexpandingroleindomesticefforts,andthecountry's alliancewithanetworkofinternationalpartnerswilldrivefurtherindustrygrowth4 InApril2009,anNGAbriefingtitled"Pixels,Points,andVectors:TheFuelsforGEOINT"5circulatedthroughthe communityItcorrectlypredictedthatimportantGEOINTsourcesofthefuturewouldbenationalsystems,commercialsatellites(37+worldwide),militaryandcommercialaircraft(1200+worldwide),imagingUAVs(unmanned aerialvehicles)(279+worldwide),terrestrialsensors,andunderwatersensorsConclusionsinthebriefpointedto thefutureimportanceofcollectionassetsandusedspatialresolutiontomeasurethevalueofGEOINTItsmain point--thattheflowofpixelswouldbethedrivingforceor"thefuel"forthefutureoftheGEOINT--appearstobe onlypartiallycorrectWhilethecollectionofpixelswillfortheforeseeablefutureremainthefoundationalbasefor futureGEOINTknowledgeandcommunication,ouranalysisidentifiedtwo additional strategic drivers that will shape the future of commercial imagery. 1 Data Timeliness and Availability ThefutureenvironmentwillberichindataThroughoutmostofthehistoryofGEOINT,decisionmakers operatedinadata-andinformation-scarceenvironmentPreviously,theUSnationalsecuritycommunityhad limitedcollectionassets,fewerprovidingaccesstodeniedareas,feweryetprovidingpersistentcapabilities,and nonethatencapsulatedallofthesedesirablequalitiesWhentheUScollectedinformation,itwashoardedand covetedThescarcityofdataledthenationtobuildsystemsandorganizationsaroundtheprocessofcollecting andallocatingprizedinformationDuringthisperiod,strategicapplicationsdroveGEOINTuse,requiringaccurateverification,validation,andassessmentbeforeconclusionscouldbemadeoractionstakenThiscollection-centricprocessevolvedintoTCPED(Tasking,Collection,Processing,Exploitation,andDissemination) Intoday'senvironment,exceptonafewdeniedtargets,dataisnolongerscarceandthetacticaluseofinformationhassurpasseditsstrategicoriginsThequantityandcapacityoftheater-basedcollectionassetsthatprovide datadirectlyintousers'handshaveincreasedtwenty-foldinthepastfiveyearsalone6TheproliferationofcommercialcollectionsystemsandopensourcegenerationprovidesmorechoicesforgovernmentuseMoreover,the worldfindsitselfinthemidstofaninformationexplosion,withaplethoraofprimary,secondary,andtertiary datasourcesavailableatourfingertipsviatheinternetThenationalsecuritycommunitynowexistsinadata-rich environmentandmustfindwaystorapidlymineandassembletherightinformationforitsneedsInmanycases,

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4 Marks,Joseph"USAIDtostandupnewGeospatialDataCenter",08/03/2011http://wwwnextgovcom/nextgov/ng_20110803_7070php 5 http://wwwpecadfasusdagov/pdfs/2009/NGA,%20Chief%20Information%20Officer,%20Jack%20Hildpdf 6 Rustan,PedroInterviewedbyJoshHartman,July2011

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today'sinformationconsumersplacemorepriorityonthetimelinessofdatathanonitsaccuracyAsGEOINT users become more sophisticated, the requirement for finished, "gold standard" products decreases, and the demandforfastaccesstoavailabledataincreasesatrateswellbeyondtheabilityofthecurrentsystemtodeliver ThefailuretoharnessthepowerofvolumesofdatainaresponsivewaywillputtheUSatastrategicdisadvantageandcallintoquestionitsabilitytorespondeffectivelytointernationalcrises 2 Commercial Industry Trends CommercialcompaniesareofferingnewproductsandservicestoGEOINTusersAsthevolumeofavailable GEOINTdatagrows,commercialinterestintheGEOINTarenahasdrivenandwillcontinuetodriveadditional anddivergentinvestmentresultinginnewproductsandservices,tools,andapproachesavailabletogovernment andcommercialconsumersTrendsoccurringoutsideofthedefenseandintelligencecommunities--largelyin unrelatedcommercialsectors--willlikelycontinuetofuelthefutureofGEOINTTheseshiftshaveverylittletodowithpixels; As the commercial marketplace evolves, key areas of commercial investment include: theyresultfromagrowthincommercialinfrastructure,exposure tomassiveamountsofdata,proliferationofhandhelddevices,the growthofcomputingpower,thedevelopmentofapplications,the idea of consumers becoming collectors, and most critically, the emergingconceptthatpixelsaremerelythe"bread"andthatall theotherdataarethe"meat"ofGEOINT

· Cloud services and virtualization · Large-scale data acquisition and collection · Transport and storage infrastructure · Traditional and stereo photogrammetric services · Analytical tools

Specifically,today'scommercialenvironmentisbeingfueledbyserviceofferings,likecloudandsoftwareservices,whichhavecreatedopportunitiestoefficientlyleveragecommercialinfrastructureandcomputingpower,allofwhichhavebeengrowingatamuchfasterratethangovernmentcapabilitiesTremendousadvances inmachinelearning,particularlyastheyrelatetodataminingandcorrelation,offernewopportunitiesThis technologystoresuserqueriesandsatisfactionlevels,automaticallymeta-tagsdatabasedonuserinterfaceand context,andleveragesthestoredinformationtoimprovespeedandaccuracyonfuturequeriesCommercial demandandinvestmenthaveincreasedinweb-basedservicesforcollection,assembly,integration,andrepresentationofinformationaboutlocation-specificactivityatapointintimeaswellasoveratimecontinuum

Today's Commercial GEOINT Services

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oday'scommercialGEOINTservicesreflectthehistoricalevolutionoftheUSnationalimageryintelligence capability:platform-based,collection-centric,andpanchromaticimagery-ladenWecharacterize exisiting commercial offerings with five key attributes: 1 Limited selection TheglobalcommercialGEOINTservicemarkethasrelativelyfewprovidersWithintheUS,twocompanies (DigitalGlobeandGeoEye)provideproductsanddataservicesInternationally,onlyRapidEyeprovidesa purelycommercialoffering7However,severaldual-use,foreign,commercial/militarypartnershipsexistFor example,theCanadiangovernmentdirectlysupportsRadarSat,theItalianspartneredonCOSMO-SkyMed, theFrenchpartneredonPleiades,andtheGermanscreatedapublic-privatepartnershipforTerraSAR-X 2 Primarily government oriented Morethanhalfofthecurrentdataprovidersareengagedindirectpublic-privatearrangementsTheremaininghalfhavegovernmentsasananchortenantAmarketwiththisstructureskewscompanypriorities

7 ItshouldbenotedthatRapidEyerecentlyenteredbankruptcyproceedings

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towardgovernmentrequirementsandpromotesarisk-adversepostureIronically,thisfocusofthecompaniesonmeetinggovernmentneedscanultimatelyworkagainstgovernmentsbylimitinginnovationand outside opportunities to provide new solutions and to generate commercial revenues that would offset governmentcosts 3 Collection and platform focused ThehistoricvalueofGEOINTcamefromspace-baseddatacollectionThisheritageshapedtoday'scommercialmarketExistingcompaniesintheGEOINTservicesmarketareeitherpurelysatellitecompaniesorare drivenbythemAsaresult,existingGEOINTimagerycompanieshavetraditionallyfocusedonhowbestto collectGEOINTdatafromspaceratherthanonsolvingspecificuserproblemsThus,theyhavebeenslowto considernon-spacecollecteddataortodevelopsolutionsinotherareasoftheknowledgedevelopmentprocessLookingacrosstheGEOINTservicesmarket,onewillfindmodestbutgrowinganalytical,exploitation, andadvancedvisualizationcapability 4 Imagery centric Sharing another characteristic of their government sponsors, the existing commercial GEOINT imagery companiesbelievedpixelsandimagerywerethe"fuel"oftheirindustryInparticular,theUSprovidershave focusedoncreatinganarchiveofpanchromaticelectro-opticalimageryforcustomersCurrentproductsand servicesofferedbythecommercialmarkethavefailedtoharnesstheinformationexplosionavailabletothem todayUnfortunately,apictureisworthonlyathousandwords--notenoughfortoday'susersSignificant potentialremainsinthecomprehensiveintegrationofthemultiplenewphenomenologiesandothernontraditionaldata,aswellasGEOINTfromothermodes(eg,airborne,terrestrial,andundersea) 5 Inherently vulnerable Thecurrentcommercialmarketandbusinessmodeldependslargelyongovernmentrevenueandistherefore vulnerable to market distortions, like sudden government investment or priority changes Approximately 80%ofrevenuesforUSproviderscomefromgovernmentcustomers8Recentlyawardedcontractswilllikely increasethatdependenceGreaterdiversityincustomerswouldbetterbalancetheassociatedriskFurther, the availability of pixels on the internet has begun to commoditize current product offerings, which will reducemarginsandprofitsforimageryFutureviabilitywillrequirecommercialGEOINTservicestomove beyondapixel-basedonlymodelIfoneexaminesthelong-termoutlookofthemarket,futurebusinessand theestimatedgrowthwillnotbesustainablebytraditionalimagerysalesaloneCurrentproviderswillbeunabletomeettheirrevenuegoals

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istorically,thecreatorsandkeepersofGEOINTdatakeptitlockedawayinproprietarydatabasesandclassifiedenclavesWiththeInformationRevolution,theinternethasunleashedthepowerofthatdataandinspiredthecreationofvolumesofaccessiblenewdataThisinfluxofdatahascreatedanewgenerationofwebsavvy, sophisticatedusersToday'sGEOINTconsumersexpectnear-real-timecontentaccessTheyareincreasinglywilling totrade"highlyaccurate"datalaterfor"goodenough"informationnowWeestimatethatthevastmajorityofcommercialGEOINTservicesandassociatedtechnologiespurchasedbytheUSgovernmentinthenextsevenyears alreadyexisttoday;onlyasmallportionofnewserviceswillrequirenewdevelopmentTherefore,governmental

8 Corporate 10K reports: GeoEye, http://quicktakemorningstarcom/stocknet/secdocumentsaspx?symbol=geoy; Digital Globe, http:// quicktakemorningstarcom/stocknet/secdocumentsaspx?symbol=dgi

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effortsshouldfocusonidentifying,embracing,andintegratingtheseservicesinordertoproperlyshapethefuture ofcommercialGEOINT Animportantexamplethatwillshapethefuturecomesfromexistingsources,thecurrentKnowledgeBaseThe cache of previously collected images, existing metadata, and analysis of associated content make up the current KnowledgeBaseCommercialGEOINTservicesofthefuturewilluseacloudarchitecturetoaccesspreviously storeddataandcontenttooffernewinsightsHighlightingphysicaloractivity-basedchangeataspecificlocation willformthecoreoffuturecommercialGEOINTproductsandservicesUsingthestrengthofcommercialinfrastructureandprocesses,topicalandmetadatacorrelationbetweennewlycollectedcontentandtheexistingKnowledgeBasewillbeakeyvalueofcommercialGEOINTcompanies TheexplosioninvolumeofavailabledatameansNGAcanincreasinglyrelyoncommercialservicestoprovidefuturedataatamorecost-effectiverateSomeofthesesourceshavebeendiscoveredfromnon-traditionalmethods likecrowdsourcingandwikidevelopmentThesenewandpubliclyavailablesourceshavegeneratedunexpected interest and advancement in GEOINT data or "locational information," outside the traditional mapping and intelligencecommunitiesInsomecases,consumersofGEOINTdataareoftenthebestcollectorsInseveralrecentexamples,fromreportingtraffic,capturingtacticaldetailsoftheArabSpring,ormonitoringthedevastating effectsofastringofnaturaldisasters,localobservershavebecomeuniqueandauthoritativesourcesofcollection, particularlyinurbanenvironments9Theproductsfromthecrowdsourcingmovementareoutpacinggovernment development,andnon-traditionalGEOINTcompaniesareracingtogettheirarmsarounditThenewtrendand relatedphenomenawilllikelycontinue,catalyzingnewtypesofcommercialGEOINTservices,suchasactivity- andtemporal-basedanalysis Akeycharacteristicofthesecollectivechangesistherecognitionthatwhilepixelsareimportant,morecriticaltothe useristheperspectivethatadditionalandvariedsourcesofinformationcreateManyemergingGEOINTservice companiesplaceminimalfocusongettingabetterpictureInstead,theyusethemostcurrentpictureandcreatenew contentbyfusingitwithdatafrommultiplesourcesInthiscase,thepictureisworthmorethanathousandwords; itmayactuallyhaveseveralthousandwordsimbeddedwithinit Commercial industry has moved to leverage this phenomenon by investing in enabling technologies and by developingfuturebusinessmodelsAdvancesininfrastructurefortransportandstorageofdataaswellasthe proliferationofmobiledevicescontinuetoenhancetheaccesstoandhandlingoflargevolumesofdataThis makesusingGEOINTdatapossibleinstandardformatsandrawform,enablingexploitationofthefulldepth oftheinformationavailableExamplesofthecontentcreationtypifiedbythismovementcanbeseenatsites likeKeyhole,Flickr,Panoramio,OpenStreetMap,Wikimaps,Photosynth,Zoomit,SeadragonMobile,Twitter, Facebook,Google,SimpleGeo,GeoIQ,andUshahidi10Flickraloneboastsmorethan100milliongeotagged photos,manywithsituationaltextnotationattached11Existingappsthatturnstructuredtextintogeographicallyrepresenteddataperuseblogsandpublicsitestoprovideadditionalcontextto"locationalunderstanding" Theseprimarilyweb-basedservicesandproductsrepresentthefutureofcommercialGEOINTservicesLooking attheorganizationsandtheirproducts,oneseeslittleresemblancetothetraditionalcommercialGEOINTor imagerycompaniesthatexisttoday

9 "Crowdmapping Arab Spring--Next Social Media Breakthrough?", Hina Samnani and Lolla Mohammed Nur, 28 Jun 2011 http://www voanewscom/english/news/middle-east/Crowdmapping-Arab-Spring-Next-Social-Media-Breakthrough--124662649html 10 Ushahidifigure:http://behindthewallbahraincrowdmapcom/ 11 "100,000,000GeotaggedPhotos(Plus)",4Feb2009http://codeflickrcom/blog/2009/02/04/100000000-geotagged-photos-plus/

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Inthefuture,commercialGEOINTservicescompanieswillfocusmoreontheuserexperienceTheywillincorporate morephenomenologies(eg,FullMotionVideo,LIDARandSAR),andharnessmobilehandhelddevicedata(eg, voice,video,andphotos),whiledevelopingsophisticatedmechanismstoexploitopensourcesystemsUsingtheseand othertechnologies,theywillanswerspecificquestionsandprovidedataandinsightsthatwillpromptnewquestions Theywillprovidethetraditionalverticalperspective,or"bird'seyeview,"aswellashorizontalperspectivesThesecompanieswilllikelyofferrobust,foundationalanalyticaleffortsfueledbyhighlyagileautomationtoolsThesetoolswill becapableofminingterabytesofinformation,assemblinggermanedatanuggets,andallowingtheusertointegrate contentintothepreciseformnecessaryfortheirpurposesThedevelopmentofspecializedsoftwarealgorithmsand userappswillprovideamoreresponsivecapabilityandexperiencefortheGEOINTuserofthefutureUltimately, themarketplacewilldrivedevelopmentofGEOINTtoolsandapps,baseduponopenandcommonstandardsinthe marketplace InanefforttoprovideinsightandunderstandingintothelikelyfutureoftheGEOINTindustry,weofferseveralkey attributes that we believe will form the foundation of future commercial GEOINT services. 1 Data ubiquity Today'scommercialenvironmentisdatarichratherthandatascarceDataisbeingproducedmorequicklythan itcanbeprocessedoranalyzedEachperson,activity,andprocessgeneratesadatatrailandoffersapotential projectionofthefuture--mostofitgeo-referencedThisdataresideseverywherearoundusinmanyformsand structures,creatinga"DataBazaar"forcommercialGEOINT,wheredatamanagersandcontentcreatorswill chooseacrossanarrayofsourcestobestservetheusers'needsAlmostanyinformation,whethertextual,verbal, pictorial,orelectronicwillbegeo-referencedWhilethedatasourcemaynotbeasrelevantasithasbeeninthe past,traditionalcollectorswillprovideGEOINTdataandconsumerswillactas"deployedsensors"postingadditionalgeo-referencedinformation 2 Vast data exposure and access UserswilllikelybeexposedtomoredatathantheycanhandleWhileensuringexposureandaccesstomultiple data sources will enable successful GEOINT services companies of the future, they must balance it withawaytofilterthedataforthespecificpurposeoftheuserThosecompanieswithlimitedaccessorpoor mechanismstoidentifyandoffertherightdatatouserswillstrugglewiththeverification,robustness,and accuracyoftheirdataandfinalproductsConsequently,successfulcommercialGEOINTservicescompanies willbethosethatexposeallexistingdata,content,andassembledproductsDataexposureandaccesswillofferonefactorinthedevelopmentofcommercialmarketstructureandpricing 3 Data and content assembly will be more important than data collection UserswillmeasurethevalueofcommercialGEOINTservicesbytheirtimelinessandbytheirabilitytoanswer users'questionsUsertimelineswillnotalwaysaffordthecollectionofnewdataforeachrequestAsaresult, futureGEOINTserviceswillfirstmineexistingdatabasesratherthanrushingtocollectorrecollectinformationOnecompetitiveadvantage(aswellasNGA'sstrategicadvantage)willrestintheabilitytodiscoverandassembleexistingdataandcontentversusacquiringnewdataTechnologiesandprocessesexisttohandle,organize andintegrateenormousvolumesofnewandexistingdataintovalue-addedproductsandservicesThesefuture technologiesandprocesseswillgreatlyenhancethequalityofcommercialproductsandservices,furthershapingthepowerandimportanceofdataassemblyForexample,todothisonusers'futuretimelines,automated processesmustbepartofthesolutionFuturesolutionswillintegratemachinestointerprettheKnowledgeBase automatically,usingtechniquessuchaspatternrecognition,changedetection,andfeatureextractionAddition8

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

ally,successfulGEOINTcompaniesofthefuturewillfindtheleastexpensivemethodtocollectdata--evento thepointofdivestinginsatelliteproductionandassets--andinvestincreatingknowledgethroughassembly 4 Infrastructure as a commodity Governmentcanusecommercialinfrastructureasaserviceinthefutureinlieuofdevelopingnewproprietary datapaths,centers,orsystemsCommercialGEOINTcompanieswilltapintoexistingrobuststorage,processing,supercomputing,dissemination,andapplicationimplementationcapabilitiesAmazonandGoogle, examplesofanewbreedofcommercialGEOINTcompanies,havebeenpathfindersbybuildingsmartarchitecturesandprovidingtransformationalcapabilitiesfordatamining,cloudcomputing,applicationdevelopment,anddataexposure 5 Cost of data transfer will be higher than storage cost TrendsindicatethecostofstoragewillcontinuetodecreaserelativetothecostoftransportservicesStorage isexpectedtobeeasilyscalableandrelativelycheap,particularlywhenleveragingvirtualizationandlargedata centers12Thisimpliesthatdataalgorithmswillbeexecutedatthedatasourcewhenpossibleandonlyessentialinformationwilltransferfromplacetoplace 6 Consumers will become collectors (and analysts) Tools,applications,hardware,andprocesseswillallowtwo-wayinformationflowHandheldsandotheruserbased technologies will be key catalysts to this development Mobile collectors and other consumers will enablepeoplenearanobjectoreventofinteresttobuildmorerobustproductsandcontextualanalysisSuch accesswilldrivenewlevelsofaccuracyandtimeliness,whileprovidinginvaluablecontextandperspective Alongwiththisshift,wewillseeagrowinginfluxofsmallbusinessesputtinguniqueadvancedtechnologies, apps,andanalyticcapabilitiesintothehandsoftheuserThisgrowthwillfurtherdrivetherichnessofthis two-wayinformationflowandmakepossiblethecreationofmanynewcommercialGEOINTproducts

Implications on TCPED and the Future

he Intelligence Community's TCPED process operates in a linear fashion to satisfy today's user information needsGiventhegovernment'sinfluence,today'scommercialimagerycompaniesusesimilarprocessestosatisfy users'needsTheseprocessesexistasproductsofthedynamicsofthenationalsecuritycommunityTheyhaveserved andwillcontinuetoservethecommunitywellwhencapabilitiesrequirefocusoncollectingsingle-sourceornewdata However,itreflectsatimeofdatascarcityandahistoricintenttodefinerolesandmissionsamongintelligencecommunityorganizationsbyintelligencesourceandfunctionIntoday'sworldwehaveadata-richenvironmentThecomplexityofproblemsuserswillexperiencemandatesmorethansingle-sourcesolutionsEmergingandnon-traditional commercialGEOINTcompanieshavedevelopedtheirowndatasourcingandknowledgecreationprocessthatisdifferentfromTCPEDprocess Forthefuture,wepredictanevolvingcommercialmodelrevolvingaroundthenon-sequential,multi-dimensional,andfluidinteractionofinformationthroughtheconceptsofQuerying,Mining,Assembly,Dissemination, andIntegration(QMADI)ofdataandcontentThismodelwillcenteronansweringmanyusers'questionson shorttimelines,leveragingcurrentlyexposeddataandcontentratherthanrelyingsolelyonspecificassets,tasking thoseassets,thenstartingtheknowledgecreationprocessTheprocessmaybeiterativewithinthesamequery, generatenewqueries,orhavenospecificqueryatallUseoftheQMADImodelwillstimulatecommercialcom12 "StorageTrendsin2011FocusonCostandEfficiency",17Feb2011http://horizonwatchingtypepadcom/horizonwatching/2011/02/storagetrends-in-2011-focus-on-cost-and-efficiencyhtmlMiniman,Stuart"HowBigistheWorldofCloudComputing?",28Apr2011http://wikibon org/blog/how-big-is-the-world-of-cloud-computing-infographic/

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Figure 1: The QMADI Conceptual Model: This figure represents the different components of the QMADI model. The arrows denote nominal data flows for the Knowledge Creation process for existing or new information. Notice the User exists in the center and there is no reference to specific collection assets.

paniestofocusontheindividualneedsofNGA'scustomersandtodeveloptherightproductsandservicesfor thefutureSeeFigure 1 TheQMADImodelrepresentsasignificantshiftfromcompleterelianceontheTCPEDprocess,withoutdiscardingitItisorientedtowardcontentanddataratherthanassetsandcollectionQMADIreplacesthetraditional PED,buttheTandCremainimportantTaskingandcollectionbecomeasub-processnecessarywhenauserhasa specialneedwhichdatapreviouslycollectedandavailablecannotsatisfyExecutedlinearlyinthepast,knowledge creationthroughQMADIpermitsuserstobeginandendknowledgedevelopmentatanypointwithinthemodel tosatisfytheirrequirementsThismodelleveragestheDataBazaarconcept,whereexotic,non-traditionaltypesand sourcesofdata,venues,tools,applications,anddeliverymechanismstransparentlysurroundtheuserThemodel acknowledgesandbuildsuponkeycomponentsoffutureknowledgegeneration:advancementsincomputerprocessing,storage,andcommunicationcapabilities;theemergenceofsophisticatedanalytictoolsandsoftwareapps; andanincreasinglysavvyuserbaseQMADIalsoembracestheconceptthatdatafindsdata:thevalueofnewcorrelateddataandcontentisnonlinearThatis,asthesizeoftheKnowledgeBaseincreases,theamountofinformationandsubsequentknowledgethatcanbeextractedincreasesexponentiallyTheseshiftsenabledevelopmentofa user-centric,flexiblesystemthatallowsusersandanalyststoengageatdifferentpointswithinthemodeltoproduce higherqualityGEOINTproductsandservices Implications of QMADI adoption include: > Decisiontimelinesmaybereducedbyrelyingondataorcontentalreadyavailable > Miningandassemblywillstimulatepreviouslyunplannedandnovelqueries

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

> Toolsandapplicationswillexpandquery,mining,assembly,andintegrationcapabilities--creatingsmarterusers > Dataandcontentwillhavedifferentlevelsofveracityandconfidence(fromunprovenuser-providedsources to"goldstandard"databases)andvaryingrequirementsforprotectionandsecuritytomatchuserneeds > Usersinthefieldwillbeabletochoosetousefinishedcontentassembledandintegratedforthem,orto choosetoassembleandintegrateitthemselvesasthesituationrequires

The individual components of the QMADI model are defined below.

> Query--Articulation and framing of a GEOINT question Thisactivitystartsandendswiththeuserwhoqueriesthesystemwithspecificquestionsandarticulatestheir knowledgerequirementsAfeedbackloopdeterminesandrecordsthelevelofsatisfactionofusers,matching andcorrelatinginformationtosatisfiedquestionsMultipleuserswilloftenaskthesameorsimilarquestions Bydetermininglevelsofsatisfactionandwhetherornotthequestionordataexist,thesystemcanreplicate thoseanswersinmuchshortertimelinesUnlessspecificallyrequested,thesourceofdatadoesnothavetobe senttotheuserBeyondtheuser,queriesmaybecreatedthroughtheprocessofminingandassemblingofdata astheanalyticalcommunityrealizesgapsexistintheexistingdataorinthelogicbetweendatanuggetsand aggregateddata > Mining--Discovery of sources to answer the question Usingcommercialtoolslikewebcrawlersandspiders,GEOINTservicescompaniescanexploreandcompilepetabytesofgeo-andmeta-taggeddataThesourceswillincludemulti-INT,biometric,vector,raster, textual,video,voice,government,commercial,proprietary,orpurchased,andopensourcedataCompanies willhighlighttheexistenceofrelevantinformationfrompossiblydozensofsourcesIntheeventthereisno existingdataorinsufficientcontent,currency,orconfidencetosatisfyauser'srequirement,assetsmaybedirectedtocollectnewdataandinformation(Itshouldbenotedthatinthesecases,datawouldtypicallynot beavailabletothepublicbecauseofnationalsecurityinterestsItwillthereforebeaccessiblethroughsensitive channelsforthegovernmentcustomer) > Assembly--Organization, tracking, and formatting of the data Becauserelevantdatamayexistatdozensofsources,developingandunderstandingthelogicalconnection amongmultiplecommercialdatasourcesandpointswillbeanimportantcomponentofthefuturecommercialGEOINTservicesmodelAssemblyrepresentsthefirstphaseofknowledgedevelopmentThiswillentail structuring,linking,andaggregatingthedataintoacurrentlynon-existentcommonenterpriseformatand organization,readyforfurthercustomeruseDependinguponthespecificuserquery,dataorcontentmight behandledwithintheAssemblyfunctionbyuserapps,algorithms,oranalyticalprocesses > Dissemination--Delivery, sharing, publishing, and posting Aggregatedinformationismadeavailabletoandfromprimaryandsecondaryusersthroughvariousmethods andformatsDisseminationwilloccuratdiversetierstouser-definedcollectives,includingsingleindividuals, groups,organizations,communities,MilitaryServices,missionfunctions,agencies,orinternationalpartners Typicallydatawillresideatdedicatedhostlocationsandbeconsumedthroughpushandpullmechanisms suchasReallySimpleSyndication(RSS)feeds,WebMapServices(WMS),WebFeatureServices(WFS), orWebContentServices(WCS)offeringliveaccesstodatathatcanbedynamicallyupdatedInformation maybehostedoninteractivesiteswhereuserscanaccess,publish,download,ingest,andsharedataandproductswhilecollaboratingwithotherusersAccesstodataandproductswillbenear-real-timethroughmobile,

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

handheld,ornetworkedsystemsInteractiveviewingandanalyticalapplicationswillallowuserstocustomize dataandproducts > Integration--Analysis and implementation With the increased sophistication of users, portions of the aggregated information will be deployed, accessed, shared,ormanipulatedlocallytocreatespecificknowledgeanddesiredeffectsInthegovernment,thisoccursat anylocationwheredataorcontentresides:NGA,COCOMs,Services,DepartmentofHomelandSecurityand regionallawenforcementfusioncenters,oratindividualuserlevelsTheendresultoftheIntegrationactivitywill bethevisualizationofaggregatedinformationaccessibleforspecificuserneedsDependinguponthespecificuser query,datamightbehandledwithintheIntegrationactivitybyuserapps,algorithms,oranalyticprocesses NGAhasacriticalroleinthecommercialdevelopmentandexecutionofQMADIInthisenvironment,NGA wouldmanagethestore(orthemarketplace)interactingdirectlywiththecommercialGEOINTentitiesNGA couldworkwiththecommercialGEOINTservicecompaniestodevelopanenvironmentthatwillcommunicate andbrokertheirusers'needs,ensureaminimumsetofrelevantandevolvingcommercialsourcesofdata,andstimulateandincentivizecommercialdevelopmentofinnovativeGEOINTtools,webcrawlers,spiders,andappsFurther,NGAshoulddefine,establish,andenforcecommonenterprise-widestandardstoallowvendorsintheData BazaartoengageNGAusers

Transition to the Future

T

ransitiontothismodelwillrequireovercominggenerationsofcultureandpracticesOnlyafocusedapproach willeffectivelycommunicateandimplementthechangesandshiftsnecessaryforsuccessinthefutureenvironmentOur analysis highlights eight key shiftsthatmusttakeplacetoleveragetheQMADImodelfor GEOINTservicesofthefuture 1 Comprehensive and Expanded Data Strategy Currentandaccuratemulti-phenomenologydigitalimagedatawillremainthefoundationofcommercial GEOINTHowever,adatastrategythatexpandsbeyondthisdataalonemustembracethedynamic,flexible, instantaneous,andconstantlychangingnatureoftheenvironment,incorporatingmultipledatasourceslayereduponthefoundationAdditionally,thedatastrategyshouldprovideclearguidelinesontraditionalelementslikeintegration,quality,metadata,andsecurityThestrategyshouldembraceopensourcedevelopment solutionsbuiltonacommonapplicationprogramminginterfacedefinedbyNGAConversely,thestrategy shouldrefrainfromproprietarysolutions,evenifdevelopedbyinnovativemarketleadersFinally,thestrategy shouldpromoteandenforcecommonstandardsfromtheOpenGeospatialConsortium,theNationalSpatial DataInfrastructure,andtheInternationalOrganizationforStandardization 2 User-centric Focus and Processes ThecorepurposeofleveragingGEOINTcapabilitiesrevolvesaroundsupplyingtheuserwithabroaderrange ofinputs,deeperinsights,andtimely,actionableinformationInadata-richenvironment,thefocusofGEOINTsystemsandprocessesnolongerneedstobeasset-orcollection-basedThefutureenvironmentwill enabletailoredprocessesandservicescenteredontheusersConditioninguserstoaskspecificquestionsand providecontextasnecessarywillstartthetransitiontoauser-centricfocusOvertime,shiftingNGAcommercialGEOINTcontractsandperformancemetricsincentivesfromthevolumeofdatacollectedtosatisfactionofuserquerieswillgreatlyenhancethecontributionandusersatisfactionofcommercialGEOINT

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

3 Development and Use of Applications Reliance on commercial applications can provide the opportunity for quality, timely, decentralized, userspecificanalysisandproductdevelopmenttooccurTransitioningtowarddevelopment,testing,andeventual adoptionofcommercialapplicationswouldrequirelittlegovernmentinvestmentDefiningcommonstandardsandformatsforNGAusewouldbeagoodfirststepAninspiredapplicationsdevelopmentcommunity ofindividualsandcompaniesexiststoday,standingreadytocreate"locationalinformation"toolsCreative transitionapproachesmustbeemployedOneexampleinvolvestheissuanceofabroadareaannouncement todevelopapplicationsthatperformfoundationalelementsofGEOINTanalysisonexistingcommercial imagery--likeorthorectificationAsecondexamplewouldbeforNGAtopromoteaGEOINTcontestfor thetopthreeapplicationsthatintegratemultiplesourcesofdatainrealtimetoprovidevisuallydisplayable GEOINTinformationThetopthreecouldbeconsideredforadoptionintoanNGAuserbaselineTheremainingappshavethepotentialtobeprovidedtogovernmentGEOINTusersCompaniesresponsiblefor developingtheseappscouldbeawardedacontractthatpaysonaper-usagebasis(Thebaselineappswould getanimmediatecontract)Suchapplicationscouldbeginuseviatraditionalweb-basedplatformsandeventuallybeadaptedtohandhelddevicesThisandsimilarmodelswouldallowNGAtoleverageongoingprivate sectorinvestments,tappingintotheinnovationandinvestmentoftheexternalcommunity,whilegrowingthe commercialapplicationsavailablefromcommercialGEOINT 4 Access to Multiple Data Sources and Bases Asdiscussed,theDataBazaarconceptwilldrivethefuturecommercialGEOINTenvironmentEstablishing aprocesstoidentifythoseunclassifieddatasourcesthatNGAusersfindthemostvaluablewouldsignificantly aid transition in this area Initiatives like this will help stimulate thinking of commercial providers about othersourcesthatshouldbeintegratedwithfoundationalGEOINTwhileensuringthatthemostvaluable sourcesareincluded 5 Consumers as Collectors Withtheproliferationofhandhelddevicesandthegrowthofthecrowdsourcingmovement,theusersofGEOINTdatawillgenerateGEOINTdatathatothers,inturn,willuseItisestimatedthat25billiondigitalpictures areloadedonFacebookeachmonthand5billionphotosarenowonFlickr13Thisdataandotherassociatedgeotagged/meta-taggedinformationprovidenon-traditionalandunique,butvaluableperspectivesIntegratingthis mindsetintocurrentpracticesforgovernmentusecouldbefacilitatedbysettingupaselectnumberoffocused NGAdemonstrationpilotprogramsaimedatassessingthevalueassociatedwiththeeffectofconsumersbecomingcollectorsThepilotprogramscouldexperimentwithcrowdsourcingdatatoexplorebusinessrelationships andmodels,theQMADIconcept,informationconfidencelevels,andthepotentialimpactofadoptionofnew informationsources 6 Living in the Open ThedesiretosharecommercialdataandcontrolitatthesametimeislargelycontradictoryTheabilitytoshare commercialGEOINToffersoneofitsmostvaluableattributesUnfortunatelythatsameattributecreatesoneof itsmostsignificantweaknessesTraditionalgovernmentsystemsrequirerigorousandlayeredsecuritysolutions atthenetwork,platform,andapplicationlevelstoaddressvulnerabilityconcernsWiththegrowthofthecyber threat,thepressuretoaddressthisvulnerabilitywillincreaseAsaresult,commercialGEOINTshouldfind waystoliveintheopen,hideinthenoise,andacceptsomelevelofsecurityriskEvenonsensitivesystems,securitythreatswillneverbecompletelynegated,butrisk-managedCurrentunclassifiedUSgovernmentnetworks

13 Sutter, John D, "5 Billionth Photo Uploaded to Flickr", 20 Sep 2010 http://articlescnncom/2010-09-20/tech/flickr5billion_1_photosharing-site-flickr-facebook?_s=PM:TECH

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

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(eg,DoDandmil)presentsignificantsecurityrisks,yettheuserscontinuetofindvalueusingunclassified networksCommercial,shareableactivitybenefitsfromthefactthatitcanacceptmoreriskthanpurelygovernmentorsensitiveactivityDevelopmentofaconceptofoperationsandasystemofverificationthatunderstand andbalancetheseriskswillbecriticalCommercialentitiesshouldexplaintotheuserthepedigreeandtherefore thelevelofconfidenceandveracityofdata,basedonascaletobedevelopedbyNGA,associatedwithacontent aggregationDifferentknowledgeanduserrequirementswillnecessitatehigherorlowerlevelsofconfidenceand veracitydependingupontheirapplicationForexample,thosewhowilloperateonshortertimelinesinatactical situationmaybewillingtoacceptlowerratedinformationaslongastheyunderstandtherisksConversely,the decisiontobeginkineticoperationsornegotiateanarmstreatywithanearpeerwillrequirehigherratedinformationFactorsforassessingconfidenceandveracityincludesourcereliability,usageandtrending,currency, scale,andaccuracyWeofferanominalratingsystemforconfidenceandveracityinFigure 2

Tactical (Time sensitive quick answer)

(Long range level of con dence) Strategic

Unquali ed 10% Con dence

Notional 30% Con dence

Highly Correlated 60% Con dence

Veri ed 70% Con dence

Assured 80% Con dence

Authoritative 100% Con dence

1

2

3

4

5

6

Figure 2: Nominal Rating System for Confidence

7 Reassess Quality Measurement Traditionally,theGEOINTcommunitymeasuresqualityintermsofspatialresolutionHowever,theintroductionofnon-pixel,geo-orienteddatawillpushGEOINTproducersanduserstolookbeyondtheexquisitenessofindividualdataorsourcesThenewmodelwillredefinequalityintermsoftheabilitytoquickly andaccuratelyansweruserquestions,satisfyingspecificneedsAttributesofspeed,volume,andconfidence willcompetewithresolutionincommercialGEOINTNewtermsfor"accuracy"willevolvebeyondground sampledistanceandgeolocation

8 Transition the Market CurrentGEOINTcompanieshaveanopportunitytoadapttothechangesintechnologyandenvironment NGAcanplayapositive,constructiveroleinfosteringtransitionthroughpolicychanges,investmentdecisions,anddeepeningitscollaborationwiththeseGEOINTcompaniesSpecificshiftsandpotentialmarket indicatorsofmovementtowatchinthiscommercialevolutioninclude: > Provisionofsourcesbeyonddigitalimageryandelectro-opticalphenomena > Continuedgrowthinprocessingandcomputingabilityandinincreasedautomation > Growthincommercialmarketrevenuesandtherebyareductionofdependenceongovernmentfunding

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

> Differentiationinfinancialreportsbetweendataprovisionandnon-dataprovisionrevenue(analytical, valueaddedproductsandservices) > Increasedcommercialinvestmenttrendsinnon-collectionassets > Establishmentofpartnershipswithnon-traditionalGEOINTcompanies > IncreasedNGA/GEOINTusersatisfactionfromvalueaddedproductsandservices

Government Integration of Future Commercial GEOINT Services

C

urrentcommercialGEOINTservicesandproductswillremaincriticaltofuturegovernmentmissionsThese servicesandproductsprovidethefoundationfortheadvancementandevolutionpreviouslydiscussedHowever,NGAshouldconsiderhowtointegratetheemergingservicesintotheirmissionsetCriticalmissionopportunitiesincludemappingandcartography,collaborativeoperations,andsensitiveoperations

Mapping and Cartography

ManygovernmentuserswillcontinuetoneedmapsinvariousformsThesemapswillneedtochangedynamicallyas theterrainandenvironmentchangeMapproductionofthefuturewillcontinuetheshiftawayfromin-houseproductionofstandardproductstomapsthatarespecificallyenrichedwithuser-definedcontentandgeo-basedlayers Userswillwantaccesstoself-servetools,aswellastodataandapplicationstocreateandsharetailored,personalized mapsfromexistingdataUserswilltapintoalternativesources,technologies,andtechniquestoassembleactionable mappingproductsviatheinternetWhilemergingmultipledatasourcesaccuratelyremainsaproblemandwillonly becomemorecomplexwithcrowdsourcing,developmentofdataconflation14solutionsismakingthismethodof mappingandcartographyapowerfuloptionCommercialGEOINTproviderswillenablethesechanges Newandinnovativetechnologiesareenablingaccesstodataandapplications,givingthecustomergreaterflexibility Forexample: > GeoIQ mines open source data from the internet and creates mapsbygeocodingtextualinformation,social media,tweets,andblog data to provide nearreal-time maps These tools have been useful in developing patterns of normalcy or shifts in human climate and terrainFigure 3shows threats to elections in Afghanistan

Figure 3: GeoIQ Basemap--Afghan Election Districts & Threat

14 Dataconflationisthemergingofandconflictresolutionamongdifferentdatasourcesthatsharethesamegeographicarea,wheredifferencesin featurealignment,accuracy,scale,projections,andsourcetypeareresolvedtoyieldanenhancedcombineddataset

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

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> SpatialNetworksemploysover3,000peopleworldwidetodeveloppointofinterest(POI)datainhard-tomap areas using local knowledge These include vector basemapping (eg, roads, hydro, and infrastructure), geo-tagged ground photos with descriptions, building residence/business identification, and infrastructure identificationAlltheinformationisbeingbuiltintocomprehensivedatabasesthatareconstantlybeingupdated andverifiedinthefield > Wiki-Maps and OpenStreetMap allow users around the world to submit confirmable first-person data to providereal-timemaps > MappingwebsitesandapplicationdevelopmentcontinuetogreatlyexpandEverytrailcomandWikiloccom encourageuserstorecordroutecoordinates,descriptions,andphotosthroughmultipleterraintypesdirectly fromtheirmobiledevicesAppdevelopmentbytheNationalGeographicSocietyallowsusersfromaround theworldtogeo-referenceandsharephotographyandvideo Commercialandconsumerdemandfornavigationalaideshavetransformedmap-basedandcartographicproducts Theassociatedtechnologyandcontentadvancementsdevelopedbycommercialindustryandtheinnovationsof crowdsourcingwilllikelycontinuetooutpacegovernmentdevelopment

Collaborative Operations

The majority of future national and homeland security operations will require collaboration coalitions in some formtosucceedCollaborationwillcutacrossnationstates,non-governmentalorganizations,stateandlocalgovernments,andlocalcivilianpopulationsEachscenariowillrequiresharingofdatatogainandmanagecontinued trustandawarenessCommercialGEOINTproductscanprovidethefoundationforcommonunderstandingand communicationnecessarytooperationalplanningandsuccessfulexecution NGA'sGEOINTsupporttolawenforcementandhomelandsecurityactivitiesisvitaltoprotectingthecountry frombothman-madeandnaturaleventsNGA'smembershipintheHomelandSecurityInfrastructureProgram (HSIP)enablespartnershipwiththecommercialindustryandothergovernmentagenciestoproduceaCommon Operational Picture (COP) of national critical infrastructure information Future GEOINT services will offer moreaccurateandtimelyupdatesoftheCOP,enableliveupdates,andprovidetheabilitytosharedata Effortstoaddressdrugandborderenforcement,terroristthreats,anddisasterreliefforlocalandfederallawauthorities willrequireshareableinformationCommercialGEOINTcanbeusedtomonitorthousandsofmilesoflandandsea bordersNGAwillhavetoprovideseamlessaccessandintegrationofcommercialGEOINTtoawiderangeoffederal,state,andlocalcustomersandtonon-USplayersThiswilloftenoccurinaustereorhandicappedcommunicationsenvironments During the Bahrain protests, geo-tagged video, text proliferatedwithmobiledevicesInmanyofthesecollaborativeenviand photos were generated locally from reporting of ronments,commercialcompanieswillleverageapplicationsforflood on-site witnesses and leveraged to dynamically update modeling,criticalinfrastructureprotection,andotherspecifictasks an Ushahidi Crowdsource map of the crisis. Thiswillinclude,asUshahidihasdemonstrated,theabilitytoincorporatelocallygenerated(attheeventlocation)ormanageddatasets Itmayalsobenecessarytohavetheabilitytoincorporategeo-referenceddatafromcriminaldatabases,andlocalor nationalcrimetrendstoperformpredictiveanalysisandassesshumangeography

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

Sensitive Operations

SensitiveoperationswillbethoseperformedbyUSgovernment-directedpersonnelandwillrequireprotectionor classificationofdataandassociatedactivityduetosource,methodofcollection,ortheimplicationoftheknowledge Traditionally,nationalsystemswithspecializedsensorsandcollectorshavesatisfiedtheseknowledgerequirements While they certainly contribute, commercial GEOINT capabilities by themselves may not provide stand-alone solutionsforstrategicdecisionswithlong-termimplicationsCommercialGEOINTcancontributetosensitiveoperationswheregeneralawareness,timeliness,ortacticalfocusisapriorityAscommercialGEOINTservicesexpand, opportunitieswillexisttosupportNGAanalystsandNGAliaisonteams TwofactorswilldrivedemandforcommercialGEOINTuseinsensitiveoperationsFirst,asthespeedofQMADI increases,associateddemandsforcommercialGEOINTwillincreaseThisusewilltendtowardstacticalapplications and the needs of short response requirements Second, as the international market evolves, forcing policy changesandliberalizationoflicensingrestrictions,resolutionandcommunicationenhancementswillenergizethe situationaldemandforfoundationalimageryinsensitiveoperationsAscommercialGEOINTfulfillsmoreknowledgerequirements,nationalsensorswillbeusedlessforstandingrequirementsThiswillallowthemtodirectfocus totheirniche--thegrowingcollectionofexquisiteandstrategicrequirementsFigure 4representsthisrelationship

Figure 4: Relationship of future commercial GEOINT to government systems.

Investment Strategy

iventheprojectedvalueofemergingcommercialGEOINTcapabilities,itisimperativetodevelopanappropriateframeworktoengagecommercialGEOINTcompaniesinthisnewenvironmentThisdevelopment willrequirechangeswithinthecurrentcommercialimagerycompaniesCurrentimagerycompaniesshoulddevelop

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

G

17

partnershipswithnon-traditionalandemergingGEOINTcompaniestotransitionsuccessfullytothisnewmodel Apublic-privateforumshouldbeestablishedtoexplorenewbusinessmodelsaswellasserviceandproductinnovationsTheforumcouldconsidertechnologytrends,governmentcustomerneeds,potentialbusinessmodels,and co-developmentprojects Investmentinthisfutureshouldhaveminimalfocusonthetraditionaltechnologydevelopmentofgovernment-directedacquisitionRather,investmentfocusshouldstimulateaninnovativeenvironmentandleveragethemomentumofexistingcommercialinvestmentsandcultureForexample,theenvironmentisripetoprovideopportunities tosmallbusinessinnovatorstobringnewideasandprocessestomarket,likethosementionedearlierInvestment shouldtapintocommercialGEOINTactivitiesrelatedtoon-demandproductsandservicesortotheintegration ofmultipledatasourcesAdditionally,NGAshouldconsiderhowbesttointegrateongoingcommercialanalytical effortsusingspatial,relationalandtemporalinformationthatidentifytrends,correlations,andcausations NGAshouldrecognizethepotentialof,andintegrate,newsourcingstrategiesandanalysisopportunitiesavailable fromthecommercialsectorNGAshouldestablishnewbusinessmodelswithalternativeinvestmentandacquisitionapproachessuchasusage-drivenpricing,contests,andestablishmentandenforcementofapplicationprogramminginterfaces,standards,andopenarchitecturesNGAwillneedtopromoteacollaborativeenvironmentacross organizationalandcommunityboundarieswhilesimultaneouslyensuringfrequentsystemandproductupdatesincludingneworrefreshedcommercialGEOINTdataCategorizinganddifferentiatinginvestmentbetweenApplicationsServicesandInformationServicesmayserveNGAwellbyofferingmarketsegmentationtoindustryNGA shouldprioritizeshort-terminvestmentstodeterminethemostefficientandeffectivewaytodevelopandpromote suchnewproductsandservicesSomeexamplesofcapabilitiesnecessaryincludeallofthestepsoftheQMADI: > Query--Processesforrecording,storingandcorrelatinguserqueriestobeusedinmachinelearningprocesses > >

Mining--SpidersandotherdatadiscoverytoolsassociatedwithinformationsourcesandformatsmostapplicabletofuturecommercialGEOINTuseGeo-andmeta-tagswillbecriticaltoenablingtheminingprocess

Assembly--SoftwareprocessesthatcandynamicallytrackandaggregatedatataggedinhundredsofdatabasesandlogicallycorrelatetheminthecontextofmultiplequeriestofilterandalignpetabytesofdataThis maytaketheformofback-endstrategic-levelappdevelopment

> Dissemination--Movingbeyondwebservicestoexpandcapabilitiestopush,pull,orpassivelyaccumulate therightdatainaustereordistressedenvironmentstomaximizeexposureandimpactoffutureGEOINT > Integration--AppdevelopmentwillprovidethegreatestprogressionofGEOINTcapabilitiesItshould betacticallyfocusedonindividualusersets

Policy Considerations

oday's commercial GEOINT services reflect the history and content of national policy in this area PreviousiterationsofnationalpolicyaffectingcommercialGEOINTfocusedoncollectionaspectsof"commercial remotesensing"asitpertainedprimarilytoglobaldefenseandintelligencerequirementsToday,nationalpolicy encourages theUS governmentto usecommercialimageryto the maximumpracticalextentThe implications ofthesepoliciesattimeshaveledtoadverseeffectsonnationalsecurityandtounaffordablesolutions(ie,acommercialGEOINTsolutionfocusedoncollectionofgovernmentrequirementsmightactuallystuntthegrowthof commercialmarketsandincreasethecostofgovernment-orientedservices)Currentpolicyemphasizesdefense andintelligencerequirements,whilealsoaddressingtheneedtoservenationalsecurityandforeignpolicyinterests

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

T

ThegoaloffutureUSpolicyshouldremain"advancementandprotectionofUSnationalsecurityandforeign policyinterestsbymaintainingthenation'sleadershipinremotesensingspaceactivities,andbysustainingandenhancingtheUSremotesensingindustry"15However,thenextiterationofnationalpolicyinthisareashouldrecognizetechnologyadvancementsandchangesinthemarketThescopeofthepolicyshouldexpandbeyondcollection of"remotesensing"datatothelargersourceandcontextofGEOINTdataanditsapplicationsThescopeofthe needsaddressedinthepolicyshouldplacesignificantlymoreemphasisonnon-traditionalrequirementslikedisaster management,environmentalmonitoring,andbordersecurityItshouldencourageeconomicactivityandprovide incentivesfordevelopmentofatrulycommercial-basedmarket,lessdependentongovernmentrequirements TheissueoflicensingsurfacedduringinterviewswithcurrentcommercialimageryprovidersandwithsomegovernmentofficialsItshouldbenotedthatleveragingfutureGEOINTservicesandmovingtotheQMADImodeldoes notrequirechangesinthecurrentspatialresolutionlimitationsLiberalizingresolutionconstraintsaheadofmarket forcesmayworkcountertothepurposeofnationalpolicyLoweringresolutionlimitspriortosimilarperformance byforeigncompetitorsortomarketdemandcouldincreaseUSGEOINTcompanies'dependenceontheUSgovernmentratherthanencouragingmarketdevelopmentoutsideofdefenseandintelligenceFurther,lowerlimitsmay alsodistractcommercialGEOINTcompaniesfromthegreatestpowerofcommercialGEOINT--contextaround alocation--ratherthanincreasingcollectionperformance ChangesinpolicycouldsignificantlyfacilitatetransitiontoapowerfulfutureofcommercialGEOINTCurrent policystates: "UScompaniesareencouragedtobuildandoperatecommercialremotesensingspacesystemswhoseoperationalcapabilities,products,andservicesaresuperiortoanycurrentorplannedforeigncommercialsystems However,becauseofthepotentialvalueofitsproductstoanadversary,theoperationofaUScommercialremotesensingspacesystemrequiresappropriatesecuritymeasurestoaddressUSnationalsecurityandforeign policyconcernsInsuchcases,theUnitedStatesGovernmentmayrestrictoperationsofthecommercialsystems inordertolimitcollectionand/ordisseminationofcertaindataandproducts,eg,bestresolution,mosttimely delivery,totheUnitedStatesGovernment,orUnitedStatesGovernmentapprovedrecipients"(NSPD27)15 ThispolicyproperlyprovidesaframeworkforlicensingthatencouragesUSGEOINTcompaniestoremainmarketleadersinthefutureYet,inconsideringitsapplicationtothefutureGEOINTmarket,twoobservationsemerge First,itislargelyorientedaroundcollectionanddisseminationandshouldbebroadenedtoconsiderotherfuture GEOINTservices--likenewsourcesofdataandcommercialanalyticsSecond,itreflectsacommercialGEOINT industrylargelydominatedbytheUSgovernmentratherthanfocusedoncreatinganagileandsustainableUS commercialGEOINTindustry ChangestoUSpolicycanpromotestrengthandvitalityinthecommercialGEOINTmarketAnyrewriteofNSPD 27shouldencourageeconomicactivityandpromiseincentivespromotingthedevelopmentofcommercialapplicationsofGEOINTservicesAnewpolicyshouldencouragethedevelopmentofcommercialGEOINTmarketsoutsideofgovernmentcustomers,whileallowingUScompaniestomaintaintheirglobalcompetitiveadvantage

15 National Security Presidential Directive 27, Commercial Remote Sensing Space Policy http://wwwwhitehousegov/files/ documents/ostp/press_release_files/fact_sheet_commercial_remote_sensing_policy_april_25_2003pdf

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

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Findings and Recommendations

eareatanimportantcrossroadsforthegovernmentandcommercialGEOINTindustryNGAisimplementinganewvisionseekingtotransformthewayitconductsbusinessMarketforcesandtechnologydevelopmentsarereshapingcommercialGEOINTcapabilitiesMoreover,budgetconstraintswillforcegovernment andindustryorganizationstolookfornewwaystodobusinessFailuretounderstandandshapethesechangescould leadtodireimplicationsforgovernmentandindustryListedbelowarethekeyfindingsthatwediscoveredduring thisstudyAdditionally,asetofassociatedrecommendationsisofferedtohelpfacilitateresponsestothesechanges andharnessthepotentialoftheGEOINTfuture

W

Findings and Associated Recommendations

1. QMADI-oriented GEOINT processes will better satisfy future knowledge requirements. Use of the QMADImodelbyNGAandcommercialGEOINTservicescompanieswillfocusontheindividualneedsof NGA'scustomersanddeveloptherightproductsandservicesforthefutureThecurrentcommercialGEOINT systemisasset-basedandfocusedonimagerycollectionBynatureTCPEDisareactiveratherthanproactive processItpresumesdatascarcityAcknowledgementthattheindustryismovingintoaDataBazaarenvironmentmovesawayfromthepresuppositionthatnewdatahastobecollectedtosatisfyuserrequirementsand usesnewcollectionasalastresortinsteadoftheprimaryapproachAmovetoPredictiveAnalyticswillrequire enoughcontexttoidentifyanddeveloptrendsfromcorrelativeandcausalfactorsbeforenewtaskingisrequestedThetrendsofhand-heldtechnology,theimplicationsofcrowdsourcingcontent,andusingsocialmediaare enoughtoplaceTCPEDatadisadvantageinthefutureGEOINTenvironment Futureknowledgerequirementsnotonlywillhavetobemorepredictive,buttheywillneedtobesatisfied onshortertimelinesThetimelinessandcurrencyrequirementsoffutureneedswilldrivethecommunity awayfromrelyingsolelyonTCPEDForexample,currentTCPEDapproachesareunlikelytoenablethe "sensor-to-shooter"conceptsofthefutureTraditionaltaskingandcollectionshouldbecomeasecondary process,usedwhenexistingdataisnotavailableorwhendatathatisonaconstantcollectionmodedoesnot sufficientlyaddresstheknowledgerequirement

Recommendation: NGA and commercial GEOINT companies should integrate the QMADI

model into operations.

NGAandthecommercialGEOINTcompaniesmustabandontheoldsensor-centric,collection-driven,proprietary,sequentialprocessandmovetoanewfluidmulti-dimensionaldataanduser-centricmodelQMADI providesaproactivemodelthatenablesPredictiveAnalysisandtapsintotheDataBazaarenvironmentFutureknowledgerequirementsdemandleveragingexistingdataandcontent,requiringasystembasedonuser needsratherthanonthecollectionassetsavailableatagiventimeThissystemwillshortentimelinesandaddresscurrencyrequirementsforfutureknowledgerequirements Totesttheconcept,werecommendacross-agencyTigerTeamtoexamineimplementationofthismodelThe discussiononimplementationshouldconsideraninvestmentstrategyandexplorethreeoperationalscenarios toshowhowatransitionfromTCPEDtowardtheQMADImodelwouldworkinpracticeTheteamshould identifygapsandmakerecommendationsforimplementation

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

2 Emerging commercial data and technology advancements are reshaping the GEOINT industry. CommercialdataandtechnologyadvancementsinGEOINTandrelatedindustriesaremovingatatremendouspaceCommercialcompanieswithgrowingfootprintsinthegeospatialarenahavesurpassedgovernment developmenttimelinesThesecompanieshavedevelopedinformationtechnologyarchitecturesandprocesses thatofferrapiddatamining,cloudcomputing,applicationdevelopment,anddataexposureGrowthincommercialinfrastructures,exposuretogeo-andmeta-taggeddata,growthofcomputingpower,developmentof usefulapplications,andproliferationofmobileandhandhelddeviceshavedrivennewbusinessopportunities intheprivatesectorAdditionally,commercializationofdiversedatasourceswillacceleratecommercialand governmentanalyticalcapabilitiesThepotentialcontributionofthesealternativeandnon-traditionaldata sourceshasnotyetbeenrealized

Recommendation 1: NGA should cultivate relationships and growth with new GEOINT companies.

CompanieswithwhichNGAhasnottraditionallyworkedhavestimulatedthemajorityofthechangesreshapingthecommercialGEOINTworldThesecompanieshavecommercializedGEOINTservicesfortheaverage citizenSynchronizingNGAactivitieswithcommercialinnovationswillensurethatNGAanditsbroadsetof customersremainattheforefrontofGEOINTservicesNGAwouldbenefitgreatlybyestablishingaconstructivedialoguewiththesecompaniesNGAshouldconsidercompaniesofferingnewphenomenologies(eg,Full MotionVideo,LIDAR,SARandhyperspectral),additionaldatasources,expandedinfrastructure,andnew applicationsandanalyticaltools Effectivelyencouraginginnovationandtappingintothepotentialofcommercialcapabilitieswithindustry andthetraditionaldataproviderswillrequirenewandcreativeapproachesNGAmustmovetowardsacontent services-basedmodeltoacquirenewinputsandawayfromtheexistingdata services-basedmodelThis contentservicesmodelcanbeachievedbytappingintotheinnovationacrossindustryandcanoccurwith littleup-frontgovernmentinvestmentItwill,however,requiresignificantculturalandbureaucraticchanges NGAshouldexploretheuseofanopensourcedevelopmentmodeltofullyleveragetheinnovativeenergy ofthecommercialworldNGAshouldexperimentwiththisconceptbystructuringanopportunityforwebbasedGEOINTapplicationsdevelopmentbytheopensourcecommunity

Recommendation 2: NGA should consider new business models for commercial GEOINT.

New business models will facilitate the transition beyond data buys as well as evolving existing commercialprovidersOfferingpilotprogramsandconsideringnewmethodsforcompensation(egperuse)and incentivestructure(satisfactionofuserqueriesratherthandatacollection)onnewcontractswillpushall GEOINTcompaniestoprovideinnovativecommercialsolutionstoNGA'scustomers 3 Current commercial data providers can and should play a more prominent role in the future GEOINTmarket. Today'scommercialimagerycompaniestendtoreflectthehistoricalevolutionofthe government,theirprimarycustomerTheyhavebuiltsuccessfulbusinessesonacceptedgovernment-driven modelsAsaresult,whiletheyarewellequippedtomeettraditionalimageryrequirements,theyhaveonly beguntotakestepstopositionthemselvestosupportthefuturegovernmentneedsdescribedinthisreport Currentcommercialproductsandserviceshaveprovidedandwillprovidethefoundationalinformationto satisfyNGA'smission,providingtremendousinsightintoactivity-basedintelligenceandchangedetection, forexampleNoothercollectors,otherthannationalsystems,canprovidetheaccessandpenetrationthat commercial imagery companies do, while their deliverables are the only shareable products of their kind

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

Further,thecurrentprovidershaveauniqueunderstandingofNGA'scustomerneedsHowever,asthelarger industrybecomeslesscollection-centricandmorefocusedonmining,assembling,integrating,andanalyzing data,thecurrentcommercialimagerycompaniesshouldadapttoremainrelevantinthefuture

Recommendation 1: The current commercial imagery companies must evolve their business models,

revenue structures, and service and product offerings.

ThecurrentGEOINTprovidersshouldrecognizeboththefinancialpressuresfacingtheUSgovernment andthebusinessrealitiesofachangingmarketplacetocontinuetoeffectivelyengageinthisevolvingmarket TheymustrecognizetherapidadvancementstotheGEOINTmarketandtheshiftsincustomerexpectationsbeyondthebasicdeliveryofpixelsTorecognizethiswillrequiredeviationfromexistingprofitable, butunsustainablemodelsFuturesuccesswillrequirethattheyadapttheirbusinessplanstodependlesson governmentmarketsharewhiledoingmoretobettersatisfythegovernmentcustomer Specifically,businessmodelsofthefutureshouldmovefromdata-drivendeliveryandcompensationtoproductandapplication-usemodelsRevenuestructuresoftoday'scommercialimagerycompaniesaredominated bygovernmentfunding;today'scompaniesmustpursueandgrowcommercialandciviluseofcommercial GEOINTproductsandservicesForexample,theseproductsandservicesmustoffernewknowledgeand communicate"locational"informationtoindividualandcorporateusersinneedofnavigationaid,managementofcriticalresources,understandingoflocaltrends,orinformationtosupportinvestmentdecisions

Recommendation 2: NGA should encourage the current imagery companies to transition rapidly to

the future GEOINT market.

Thismayrequireanincentive-basedrestructuringoranawardoffutureoptionsoncurrentimagerycontracts However,keepingthesecompaniesviablewillbeessentialtothefuture,andthecurrentNGAbudgetshould beappliedtofueltheirtransitiontothefutureAdditionally,newbusinessmodelswillfacilitatethetransition beyonddatabuysfromexistingcommercialprovidersOfferingpilotprogramsandconsideringnewmethods forcompensation(egperuse)andincentivestructure(satisfactionofuserqueriesratherthandatacollection)onthesenewcontractswillpushallGEOINTcompaniestoprovideinnovativecommercialsolutions toNGA'scustomers,aswellastoincreaseusersatisfactionfromcommercialGEOINT

4 CommercialGEOINTcontentassemblywilldriveanewlevelofintelligenceinsightsanddecision supportcapabilities. ContentassemblycreatesknowledgeItcouldbeaUSgovernmentstrategicadvantageinthefutureenvironmentThequantityandaccessibilityofcommercialGEOINTcontentinthefuture willbestaggeringTheabilitytologicallyandcoherentlycompileandconnectcontentfromacrossvastquantitiesofdisparatedatatoformknowledgewillbecomeafoundationalbuildingblockintheNGA'squestto performtimelyandrelevantpredictiveanalyses

Effectivecontentassemblyofpre-mineddataandcontentwillshortenthetimelinefromquerytoresponse RapidlearninganddataminingcapabilitieswillfusetogetherdisparateinformationsetsandenablethenationalsecuritycommunitytogarneruniqueinsightsandperspectivesTheabilitytoresolveknowledgegaps andshareresultinginformationwillaffordtheUSgovernmenttheopportunitytoexploregreateranalytical depthsinatimelymanner ServicesofferedbycommercialentitieswilllikelyformthecorecapabilitiesInnovativeproductsandalgorithms tosupportthesecapabilitieswilllikelyemergefromcompaniesoutsideoftheexistingmarketplaceNon-tradiThe Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

22

tionalorganizationsandcompaniesaredevelopingdataassemblyalgorithmsfornon-governmentconsumer servicesthathavedirectapplicationtoNGA'smissionandwillprovehighlybeneficialtobroadsetsofusers AcriticalroleforNGAinencouragingthisdevelopmentwillbetodefinecommondatastandardsWefound littleengagementwithcommercialindustryregardingthesenewstandardsorplanningfromNGAtoaddress non-proprietarydataproducts,alternativeproductsources,orgeneralleadershiponthefutureofstandardsin thisnewenvironment

Recommendation 1: NGA should develop an environment to expand and incentivize commercial

GEOINT content development.

This will require a new framework for NGA's interaction with commercial entities The new framework shouldbuildonotherrecommendationsanddirectlyengagecurrentandemergingGEOINTservicesprovidersThisengagementwiththeserviceproviderscouldfacilitatethedefinitionofstandardsandcommon formats,establishfoundationalapplications,andshapethedirectionofemergingGEOINTservicesInaddition,NGAshouldcreatevenuesforexchangeofGEOINTknowledgewithinandbetweenthegovernment andcommercialprovidersTheframeworkshouldfosterdevelopmentofpartnershipsbetweencurrentcommercialimagerycompaniesandnon-traditionalandemergingGEOINTcompanies TheinfrastructureandenvironmentmustpromotecollaborationacrossorganizationalandcommunityboundariesWithinthatenvironment,NGAmustensureaminimumsetoftherelevantandevolvingdatasources,aswell asstimulateandincentivizeindustrydevelopmentofinnovativeGEOINTtools,knowledgediscoveryprograms, dataspiders,andapplicationsTheenvironmentmustencourageintegrationoftechnologiesandprocessesfocused onhandling,organizing,aggregating,andintegratingenormousquantitiesofexistingdataandcontentintovalue addedcapabilitiesandcontextItmustallowsystemsandproductstoberapidlyupdatedwithnewcommercialinnovationsorrefreshedwithGEOINTcontentNGAmustpromotetheuseofcommercialinfrastructureinthis newenvironmentSuchacollaborativeenvironmentwillexpandinnovationincommercialcontentassembly

Recommendation 2: NGA should develop a new data strategy that accommodates the future com-

mercial GEOINT environment.

Development of a comprehensive and expanded data strategy will increase the value and applicability of the new NGA framework NGA must use the data strategy as the basis to define, establish, and enforce enterprise-widestandardsandformatsAdditionallythestrategyshouldseektoincorporatepotentialnew sourcingstrategiesandanalysisopportunitiesavailablefromthecommercialsectorTheabundanceofnew datasourcescharacterizingthefuturewillforcearecurringdeterminationofthemostappropriate,accurate, popular,andusefuldatasourcesThedatastrategyshouldprovideclearguidelinesontraditionalelements likeintegration,quality,metadata,andsecurity

5 Commoditizedcommercialinformationtechnologyinfrastructurewillofferperformanceandcost benefits. Commercialfirmshavelaidvastamountsoffiberaroundtheglobe,builtwirelessinfrastructureat tremendousrates,andestablishedanextensivebaseofdatacentersCloudtechnologiesofferGEOINTusers additionalcomputingpotentialTheGEOINTindustryisreapingthebenefitsofpriorinfrastructureinvestments and now we are seeing exponential reductions in the relative cost of infrastructure Future mining anddisseminationwillbenefitfromthisinfrastructure,eliminatingtheneedforNGAtoinvestinaseparate infrastructure

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

Recommendation: NGA should leverage commercial investment in infrastructure.

Infrastructurehasbeenabottleneck,preventingtheingestionanddisseminationofdataandcontentTappingintothegrowingcommercialinfrastructurewillcreateexposuretonewsourcesofdatapreviouslylimitedbyphysicalaccessThismovewillenableandincreasepartnerships,expandingpossibilitiesforincreased accessandsharing,aswellasbroadeningopportunitiesforanalyticsItwillalsoenablecostsavings Specificcommercialinvestmentopportunitieswillincludestorage,processing,supercomputing,anddisseminationLeveragingthecommercialinfrastructurewillenableNGAtorecognizesavingsfromnotbuilding andowninginfrastructure,andwillrequiretransitionawayfromproprietarydatapaths,centersandsystems, andtowardsimplementationofcommercialarchitecturesprovidedbyemergingcommercialproviders

6 ChangestoU.S.policycanpromotestrengthandvitalityinthecommercialGEOINTmarket. Great innovationshaveoccurredwhengovernment-developedcapabilitiestransitiontocommercialindustryTwo groundbreakingexamplesofthisincludetheInternetandtheGlobalPositioningSystemIneachcase,governmentinvestmentfollowedbyassociatedpolicyfacilitatedthegrowthofnewmarketsGovernmentpolicy canbeagreatenablerofinnovationandgrowthandcouldhavethesameeffectoncommercialGEOINT

TheevolutionofcommercialGEOINTpolicythroughPDD1andNSPD27hashelpednurtureandsustain USimagerycompanies;atthesametime,however,itmayhavedisadvantagedthecommercialGEOINTindustrybyoverlyfocusingondefenseandintelligencerequirementsExistingpolicyhashadtheindirecteffect ofstuntingthegrowthofcommercialGEOINTservices

Recommendation 1: Future policy should encourage innovation from commercial GEOINT service

providers.

AnyrewriteofNSPD27shouldencourageeconomicactivityorincentivizethedevelopmentoftrulycommercialapplicationsofGEOINTservicesKeypolicygoalsshouldbe,first,toencourageacommercialGEOINT marketlessdependentuponnationalsecuritycommunitydemandand,second,tomaintaintheglobalcompetitiveadvantageofUScompaniesThepolicyshouldexplicitlyencouragegreaterfocusonandgrowthofcommercialandcivilapplicationswhilefacilitatingthedevelopmentofavibrantcommerciallybasedmarket

Recommendation 2: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) should

ensure that any changes to the commercial GEOINT licensing regime support the intent behind national policy.

ChangestothecurrentlicensingregimeshouldsupportgrowthoutsideofthenationalsecuritymarketandmaintainglobalcompetitiveadvantageforUSGEOINTcompaniesThelicensingapproachbyNOAAshouldbe proactiveandanticipateglobalmarketdemandforkeyperformanceattributesOnlythistypeofregimecanensure UScommercialGEOINTcompaniesremaintheglobalmarketleadersThisapproachmaynotincludelowering currentspatialresolutionconstraintsAdditionally,aproactivelicensingregimewouldreachouttoindustryto informthemofthescopeanddirectionofmarketlicensinginterestsfromtheUSgovernment'sperspectiveThis actionwillfacilitateanactivedialogueonmarketdemand,technologytrends,andsecurityinterests

7 Properlydevelopedsecurityandverificationconsiderationswillenablebroaderuseofcommercial GEOINT.DataintegrityofcommercialGEOINTcontentwillcontinuetogenerateseriousconcern,and createobstaclestothefullacceptanceofitspotentialbytheUSgovernmentTheseconcernsarevalid

24

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

TheGEOINTinfrastructuremustbesecure,andGEOINTservicescompaniesmustsatisfyappropriate standardsofcyberprotection However,ourresearchuncoveredsomeinterestin100%cyberprotectionandverificationforcommercial GEOINT These demands are unreasonable and counterproductive No network is 100% protected-- governmentownedorotherwiseFurther,thekeyvalueofcommercialGEOINTresidesinitsshareability; this is particularly true in light of NGA missions supporting multi-national, multi-organizational, andnon-intelligence-relatedoperationsEachoftheseGEOINTapplicationsdemandsdifferentsecurity andverificationrequirementsManyoftheseapplicationsmaybeonlysatisfiedbycommercialGEOINT, whereasinappropriateorunachievablesecurityconstraintseliminatetheirbenefitsFuturenationalsecurityoperationswillrequirecoalitioncollaborationacrossnationstates,non-governmentalorganizations, stateandlocalgovernments,andcivilianpopulationsNGAandtherestofthegovernmentmustincreasinglyliveintheopen,usingcommercialGEOINTtodosoHence,NGAmustworkwithallaffected communitiestoachieveareasonablebalancebetweensecurityandopenness

Recommendation: NGA should adopt a standard measure for GEOINT data veracity and

confidence.

A method to verify and establish levels of confidence for data is necessary for the future Unclassified dataprovidescontextContentfromcommercialprovidersisinherentlyunclassifiedandshareableFuture operationalsuccesswilldemandseamlessaccessandintegrationofcommercialGEOINTtocross-agency customersandnon-USplayersYetitwillstillbenecessarytodevelopanapproachtoassesstheveracity ofavailablecontentandtomatchthattotheneedsofspecificusesForexample,long-termpolicydecisionsmaynotrelyuponinformationunlessithasbeenverifiedfromatrustedsourceHowever,asoldier performingtacticalmissionplanningmaychoosetorelyonsingle-source,commercial,unclassifiedinformationfromthreeweeksprior CorrelationacrossmultipledatasourcescreatessomemeasureofconfidenceQualificationofdatabysource, history, or process, from trusted to distrusted will allow an assessment of veracity and confidence NGA shouldadoptasystemthatcharacterizesdatabasedonitssource,correlationlevel,andoverallconfidence

Conclusion

T

hecommercialGEOINTmarketplacehasreachedamajorcrossroadinitsevolution--shiftingfromadatascarceindustrytoafluid,data-richfieldThisstudyhasopenedoureyestotheextenttowhichadvancesin thenon-traditionalGEOINTmarketplacewillshapethefutureofthisindustryandthereforetheproductsand servicesavailabletotheUSgovernmentThecommercialGEOINTenvironmentwewillexperienceinthenext fivetosevenyearswillbetransformedbyatremendousexpansionincapabilitiesLeveragingthesecapabilitieswill requireaconcertedeffortonthepartofNGA,itsgovernmentcustomersandpartners,currentcommercialbusiness partners,andemergingindustryplayers

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

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Glossary

Cloud Computing--Amodelforenablingubiquitous,convenient,on-demandnetworkaccesstoasharedpool

ofconfigurablecomputingresources(eg,networks,servers,storage,applications,andservices)thatcanbeprovisionedrapidlyandreleasedwithminimalmanagementeffortorserviceproviderinteraction

Commercial Industry--Thoseentities,notownedbythegovernment,thatsellproductsandservicesaccessible

tothepublicinthecommonmarketplace

Commercial GEOINT Services--Value-addedservicesprovidedbycommercialindustrytostore,compile,en-

hance,integrate,analyze,anddisseminateimageryandgeospatialinformationThesemaybedataproductionservices,products,applications,tools,etc

Data Access--Theabilitytoretrievedatathathasbeenmined,published,posted,andsharedVariousmecha-

nisms,processes,services,andapplicationsallowusageDataaccessalsorelatestothe"Dissemination"processin theQMADImodel

Data Conflation--The merging of and conflict resolution among different data sources that share the same

geographicarea,wheredifferencesinfeaturealignment,accuracy,scale,projections,sourcetype,etc,areresolvedto yieldanenhancedcombineddataset

Data Exposure--TheactofuncoveringandrevealingnewandexistingdatasourcesforuserconsiderationData

exposurealsorelatestothe"Mining"and"Assembly"processintheQMADImodel

Data Spiders/Discovery Programs/Web Crawlers--Softwareprogramsthatvisitandreadwebsitesfor

thepurposeofcontentcharacterizationTypicallyprovidinginformationbacktotheownerinrealtimeandpursuingmanytargetsinparallel,theymaybedirectedinfocusandorbrowseingeneralpaths

GEOINT--Theuseofgeo-referencedinformationtodescribe,assess,andvisuallydepictphysicalandnon-physical

features,activities,andknowledge

Geo-tag--Geospatialcoordinatesorlocationalinformationassignedtodatasuchasgroundphotos,Tweets,and

videotolinkthemtoaparticularplaceontheearth

Market--Anarenawherecommercialproductsandservicesareofferedtoparticularcommunitiesandentitiesin

acompetitiveenvironment

Meta-tag--Ancillarykeywordsaddedtocharacterizedandenricheddataandinformationsuchasimagery,videos,

photos,blogposts,andreportsMeta-tagsassistusersandsearchenginesindataminingandknowledgediscovery

Orthorectification--Theprocessbywhichimagesaregeometricallycorrectedsuchthatthescaleisuniform

andthetopographicdistortioneliminatedthroughout

Phenomenology--Atermreferringto,butnotlimitedto,differentimagingandremotesensingplatformsor

datarepresentationssuchaselectro-optical,LIDAR,SAR,FullMotionVideo,Hyperspectral,andInfrared

Pixels--Atermreferencedinthecontextofvolumetricmeasurementofcommercialsatelliteimagerypurchased

bythegovernmentThevolumeofpixelshasadirectcorrelationtotheamount(ie,squaremiles)oftheearthcoveredbyanimage

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The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

Spatial Resolution--AsizemeasurementofsquarepixelscollectedfromanimagingplatformorsensorSmaller

pixelshaveahigherresolutionandcoverlessareaontheearthwhilelargerpixelshavealowerresolutionandcover moreareaoftheearth

Social Media--Technologicalinterfacesandapplicationsthatenablecollectivesofpeopletointeractinavirtual

socialenvironmentallowingthemtoshareandhostuser-generatedcontentsuchaspictures,video,blogposts,etc

About the Authors

Joshua Hartman

JoshuaHartmanistheCEOofTheHorizonStrategiesGroup,LLCHeisalsoaPrincipalattheCenterforStrategicSpaceStudies(CS3)andaSeniorAssociateattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,nonprofit thinktanksfocusedoneducatinggovernmentandindustrypolicymakersontheimplicationsofrapidtechnologychangeHehastestifiedinfrontoftheUSSenateandtheHouseofRepresentatives,isfeaturedfrequentlyin defense-relatedpublications,andisregularlyrequestedtospeakatnationalandinternationalforumsonahostof technologytopicsMrHartmanhasfocusedhiscareerondevelopmentandexecutionofstrategyandprograms coveringmissiledefense,cyberspace,intelligence,andspace Previously,MrHartmanwassenioradvisertotheUnderSecretaryofDefenseforAcquisition,Technologyand Logistics(USD[AT&L])andcarriedoutthedutiesofDeputyAssistantSecretaryofDefenseforSpaceandIntelligence(DASD[SI])Assenioradviser,hewasresponsibleforsupportingtheUSD(AT&L)onmattersrelatingto theacquisitionandlogisticssystemsattheDepartmentofDefense(DoD)AsDASD(SI),heestablishedandran departmentalactivitiesonallacquisitionprogramsandindustrialbaseissuesrelatedtospace,intelligence,andcyberspace,totalingover61programsand$70billionannually PriortoworkingatUSD(AT&L),MrHartmanservedontheHouseArmedServicesCommitteeasaprofessional staff member in 2004 and developed policy regarding US government involvement in cyber operations, space, intelligence, defense acquisition, and missile defense He then joined the House Appropriations Committee to perform oversight, create and facilitate execution of the DoD budget, and develop national security policy and investmentstrategyregardingcyber,space,andintelligenceDuringthattime,hebecamestaffdirectoroftheSelect IntelligenceAppropriationsPanel,whereheprovidedoversightforallcomponentsoftheintelligencecommunity whilemanagingtheresourcesanddevelopingandimplementingthelegislativestrategyforreformInrecognition ofhisservice,hehasreceivednumerousmilitaryawards,wasselectedbySpaceNewsin2006asoneofthetop10 individuals"makingadifference"inspacearoundtheworld,andwasawardedtheSecretaryofDefenseOutstanding PublicServiceAward MrHartmanbeganhiscareerasanofficerintheUSAirForceHisassignmentsincludedtheSpaceandMissiles SystemsCenter,NationalReconnaissanceOffice,JointChiefsofStaff,OfficeoftheSecretaryofDefense,andNaval ResearchLaboratory MrHartmanattendedtheUSAirForceAcademy,graduatingwithaBSinSpacePhysicsHeearnedanMSwith honorsinstrategicintelligence,withaconcentrationinMiddleEast/Iranianaffairs,fromtheNationalDefense IntelligenceCollegeHealsocompletedworkintheGraduateProgramofBusinessAdministrationatCalifornia StateUniversity,LongBeachHecontinuestoserveasamemberoftheAirForceReserves

27

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

Kevin J. Resch

KevinReschisthefounderofPerformancePlusConsultants,astrategicconsultingfirm,supportingDoDand IntelligenceAgencyclientssince2010Overthepastdecade,MrReschhasactedinadvisoryandplanning capacitiesforseniorgovernmentclients,managingteamsengagedacrosstheIntelligenceCommunityHehas providedsupporttovariousNGAdirectorates,hassupportednumerouscross-directorateinitiatives,andhas beenastrategicadvisortotheCommercialGEOINTSolutionsGroup(CGS) MrReschbeganhiscareerasaStatisticalConsultantattheEastmanKodakCompanyOveraperiodof20 years,heservedKodakasaninternalconsultant,externalconsultant,andbusinessunitdirectorHisassignmentsincluded:QualityImprovementFacilitatortotheManagementServicesDivision;Organizationaland BusinessConsultanttotheHealthSciencesBusinessUnit;StrategicBusinessPlannertotheKodakTechnical CallCenter;SeniorAdvisortotheMotionPicture&TelevisionImagingDivision;SeniorBusinessConsultantinplanningandopeningDigitalFilmsubsidiariesinHollywoodandLondon;andDirectorofQuality forKodak'sCommercialandGovernmentSystemsBusinessUnit BetweenpositionsatKodak,MrReschspenttwoyearsasaChangeLeadershipManagerforDeloitteConsulting,workingoutoftheWorldFinancialCenterinNewYorkHealsoownedaconsultingbusinessfocused onbusinessassessment,strategicandoperationalimprovement,andemployeemotivation In2003,MrReschmovedtotheWashington,DCareatobecomeaPrincipalAssociatefortheInstitute forQualityManagement,Inc(IQM)HeservedasanNGAPerformanceManagementandOrganization ChangeSubjectMatterExpert,helpedbuildanAgency-levelPerformanceManagementProgram,andfacilitatedstandupofaStrategicHumanCapitalServicesOfficeHewaslaterpromotedtoCOOatIQM,where he was responsible for company operations across the Intelligence Community He managed IQM's postacquisitiontransitiontoCACI,servingasanExecutiveDirectorandAgencyAccountLead MrReschgrewupinRochester,NewYorkHeattendedtheUniversityofNotreDame,majoringinGovernmentandEconomicsHealsocompletedtheMasterofScienceprograminAppliedStatisticsattheRochester InstituteofTechnology

28

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

Bibliography of Interviews

Government

Ayers,ScottNGA Barber,KeithNGA Barlow,BarryNGA Beauchamp,WinstonNGA Cope,Edward,TNGA Douglas,EveNOAA Dyer,LisaDepartmentofState,INR Estridge,JonNGA Gupta,ShishuNGA Hales,MichaelNGA Johnson,JamesOSD Martin,JamesOSD Meiners,KevinOSD Miller,LisaOSD Roberts,William"Buzz"NGA Rustan,PedroNRO Thomas,KarenNGA Turgeon,DanielNGA Vernon,DanielNGA Whitney,SteveJointChiefsofStaff

Commercial Industry

Ashwell,MarkDigitalGlobe Cummings,JeffGeoIQ Dumas,MarkGeoEye Eaves,StuartSurreySatelliteTechnologies Fenwick,JohnSkyBoxImaging Mann,JulianSkyBoxImaging Fraizer,TonyGeoEye Huybretchs,SteveAppliedMinds Scott,WalterDigitalGlobe Tully,ChrisGeoEye Wilt,BillGeoEye Wood,SteveDigitalGlobe Young,JimGoogle

Subject Matter Experts

Faga,MartyFormerDir/NRO,formerCEOMitre Harris,JeffFormerDir/NRO,formerCEOSpaceImaging,formerSVPLockheedMartin Kaminski,PaulFormerUndersecretaryofDefenseforAcquisitionTechnologyandLogistics,ChairofDefense ScienceBoard,ChairofPresident'sForeignIntelligenceBoard Marino,PeterFormerChairNGAAdvisoryBoard Masback,KeithPresident,USGIF Munson,AlFormerAsstDNIforAcquisition,formerVPNorthropGrumman Studeman,AdmBillFormerDeputyDir/CIA,formerDirNSA Sunberg,EricIntelligenceCommunityHistorian Williams,ChrisFormerActingUndersecretaryofDefenseforPolicy;formerChair,DefensePolicyBoard

The Future of Commercial GEOINT Services

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© 2011 Center for Strategic Space Studies Published by Blueline Publishing LLC www.bluelinepublishingllc.com

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