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May 2009


Geothermal Market Drivers and Project Hurdles US Renewable Portfolio Standards, Investment Tax Credit, Production Tax Credit EU Feed-In Tariffs Carbon Policy and CDM Financial Market Impact BLM, Transmission Exploration Risks and Opportunities Geothermal Market Forecasts to 2020 Traditional Markets: United States, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, Iceland, Italy Emerging Markets: New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, Turkey, Mexico Nascent Markets: Australia, East Africa, Russia, Canada Strategy Profiles Utilities and IPPs Geothermal Developers Oil and Gas Companies Turbine Manufacturers Drillers Cost Analysis Geothermal Capital Costs Drilling Costs O&M Cost Drivers and Renewable Cost Comparisons Competitive Analysis Value Chain Evolution Competitive Positioning of Geothermal Developers Conventional and Low-temperature Turbine Analysis Geothermal Rankings Power Plant Ownership Rankings Project Development Rankings Technology Comparison Enhanced Geothermal Systems/Hot Rock Low Temperature Drilling Advancements Flash vs Binary Systems

Geothermal energy, popular during the 1970's oil crisis, is now experiencing a resurgence. Driven by RPS demand and carbon policies, there has been a recent surge globally in geothermal pipeline development activity. The US market leads the way with over 4,400 MW of geothermal plants in the pipeline, out of a total geothermal pipeline approaching 9,000 MW globally. Improving technologies such as low temperature plants are driving down costs and could lead to much shorter development timelines, while Enhanced Geothermal System developments could pave the way for the industry's longer term growth. A new study from EER, Global Geothermal Markets and Strategies, 2009­2020, is a critical resource to help guide you through the global geothermal market landscape. What is the potential for geothermal and when will specific geothermal markets take-off? Which utilities and geothermal-IPPs are leading the way and which are looking to enter? Where are the opportunities and who is bestpositioned to capitalize? Following are just a few of the key trends addressed in EER's new geothermal study: Led by California and Nevada, Western US leads the charge: 120 geothermal projects are under development in 12 Western States. 190 million acres of BLM land and U.S. Forest Service lands were open to geothermal development as of year-end 2008. Southeast Asia, with an estimated 40,000 MW of geothermal potential and led by the Philippines and Indonesia, is attracting developers from around the world. As major utilities and IPPs compete for global renewable market share, geothermal becomes an attractive option: Enel and MidAmerican lead utilities in the global geothermal market. Geothermal- IPPs such as Ormat and Geyser Green are on the front of the development curve. Oil and gas players such as Chevron are renewing their focus. Renewable policies drive geothermal growth: With pushback on coal plants, geothermal offers an attractive emissions' free baseload power source. As carbon prices escalate, geothermal is a low cost alternative to other renewable options. In the US, the changing regulatory policies--RPS, PTC and ITC incentives--will help to extend geothermal's cost advantage. Key Project Developers in the Global Geothermal Pipeline

Geysir Green Energy Hitaveita Suðurnesja Enex Reykjavik Energy

Geothermal Focused Developer / IPP Utility / Diversified IPP Owner Oil / Gas

US Renewables Group

Nevada Geothermal Calpine

US Geothermal MidAmerican

Vulcan Power Western GeoPower Western Geopower


Enel Terra-Gen Raser Technologies Magma Energy

Ormat Sierra Geothermal

Hot Rock Evonik Exorka RWE Enel EDF West Indies Power


Menderes Geothermal Gurmat Elektrik

Tohoku Electric Power Kyushu Electric Power J-Power Pertamina Envent Chevron FirstGen PNOC-EDC Itochu Geysir Green Energy Raser Technologies

Geodynamics Petratherm Panax

CFE Polaris LaGeo Ormat Enel Enel

Tata Power Ormat Geothermal Dev. Assoc. Reykjavik Energy Invest KenGen

Esmeralda Energy Iceland America

Fellows Energy

Contact Energy Mighty River Ormat

Source: Emerging Energy Research

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Global Geothermal Markets and Strategies, 2009-2020

TABLE OF CONTENTS I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY II. GLOBAL RESOURCE AND POLICY DRIVERS 1. Global Geothermal Market Environment Proven Technology in New Energy Landscape Baseload Renewable Power Geothermal Cost Drivers vs. Wind, Other Renewables 2. Overview of Global Geothermal Resource Geothermal Resource Classification Regional Hydrothermal Resource Comparison North America Europe, Iceland, and Russia Asia Pacific Caribbean and Latin America Africa 3. Renewable Policies Support Geothermal Growth US Policy Shifts Federal Stimulus Funding to Broaden Geothermal Cost Advantage RPS Implications for Geothermal Power Demand Other US Government Geothermal Incentives Increasing EU Renewables Obligations Bring Geothermal into the Fold Renewables Policy Goals Drive Interest Despite Modest Resources EU FITs Underpin Short-Term Activity Geothermal Support Policies in the Rest of the World Australia Positions EGS as Key to Renewable Policy Goal Asia Reignites Geothermal Activity with Renewables Policies RPSs Make Strides to Spur Geothermal in Mexico, Latin America International Programs Boost Geothermal CDM Supports Geothermal Activity World Bank to Lift Geothermal Activity III. GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY AND COST TRENDS 1. Plant Technology and Competitiveness Dry Steam Technology Flash Systems Single-Flash vs. Dual-Flash Systems Combined Cycle Systems Gain Attention Binary Systems Proven ORC Leads the Way Kalina Cycle Technology Looks to Evolve Hot Dry Rock/Enhanced Geothermal Systems Other Technology Directions 2. Evolution of Drilling Techniques 3. Geothermal Project Development Challenges Exploration Risks and Opportunities Dry Well Insurance Adverse Environmental Challenges Development Timelines 4. Geothermal Costs and Trends Geothermal Production Costs Project Capital Costs Trends in Drilling Costs EGS Costs Geothermal Compared to Other Renewables IV. GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL MARKET ANALYSIS, 2009­ 2020 1. Geothermal Market Development Trends Development Status of Global Geothermal Pipeline Trends in Project Scale 2. US to Lead Global Geothermal Development Activity Geothermal Development Activity in Western US California and Nevada Lead Development Charge Other States Attract Developers as RPS Demand Broadens Coal Plant Pushback Drives Geothermal Growth into New Western States Addressing Development Bottlenecks BLM Critical to Expediting Growth Potential Transmission Build-Out Key to Long-Term Growth 3. Global Project Review Traditional Geothermal Markets Developers Weigh Large Potential, High Risk in Indonesia The Philippines to Encourage Steady Growth Iceland Taps Resources as Domestic Industry Matures Italy Repowers and Begins to Expand Activity Japan Re-ignites Activity Mexico, CFE Tenders Face Ups and Downs Emerging Growth Markets New Zealand Poised for Substantial Growth Chile to Lead South American Geothermal Growth Forward Geothermal Market Awakens in Turkey Nascent High Resource Markets Central American Markets Hold LongTerm Potential East Africa Gains Attention Russia Steps Up Renewables Goals with Growth for Geothermal The Caribbean Papua New Guinea Taps into Geothermal Resources Despite High Resources, Canadian Geothermal Takes Backseat to Alternatives 4. Deep Resource Geothermal Market Activity Germany Looks to Spur Central European Growth Potential Australia France Pioneers EGS in Other Markets, But Growth Limited to Overseas Departments Long-Term US Outlook 5. Geothermal Market Forecast Global Geothermal Market Methodology Global Geothermal Market Forecast Scenarios Geothermal Market Forecasts by Country US Leads Global Geothermal Growth Southeast Asia Key Region for Geothermal Growth Geothermal Growth in the Rest of the World Geothermal Technology Forecast Geothermal Investment Forecast V. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 1. Global Value Chain Evolution Evolution of Geothermal Power Development Emerging Pure-Play Developers and IPPs Redefining Geothermal Value Chain Resource Focus Defines Strategies of Emerging Players 2. Competitive Positioning Within Geothermal Power Industry Geothermal Market Share Rankings Geothermal Power Plant Ownership Rankings Geothermal Project Pipeline Comparison Global Development Trends US Gets Competitive as New Pure-Play Developers Emerge Outside the US, Larger Integrated Players Seek Opportunities 3. Geothermal Development Strategies Pure-Play Developer Strategies Ormat Leads the Industry Forward Emerging Pure-Plays Accelerate US Geothermal Development Raser Seeks to Differentiate Itself Geysir Green Energy a Catalyst for Global Expansion Small EGS Players Attract Attention from Big Industry Geothermal Portfolio Strategies Renewables Leaders Explore Geothermal Expansion Enel Steps Up International Focus Across the Atlantic with Acquisitions Mid-American Leads US Utilities, Stays at Home for Now IPPs Move Into Geothermal with Baseload Strategies EU Utilities Reshape Fragmented LowTemp/EGS Development Market Oil and Gas Strategies in Geothermal Chevron Stands Apart from Other Supermajors Integrated Energy Production Strategies Explored 4. Geothermal Financing Challenges Financial Crisis Shakes Up Development Environment 5. Strategy Profiles: Pure-Play Developers, Geo-IPPs AltaRock Energy Inc. AltaRock Energy Geothermal Development Strategy Esmeralda Energy

700 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA TEL: +1.617.551.8580 FAX: +1.617.551.8481

PASEO DE GRACIA 47, PLANTA 2 BARCELONA, SPAIN 08007 TEL: +34.932.726.777 FAX: +34.934.676.754

Global Geothermal Markets and Strategies, 2009-2020

Esmeralda Energy Geothermal Development Strategy Exorka Geothermal Exorka Geothermal Development Strategy Geodynamics Geodynamics Geothermal Development Activity Geysir Green Energy Geysir Green Energy Geothermal Development Strategy Hitaveita Suðurnesja (HS Orka) Hitaveita Suðurnesja Geothermal Development Strategy Iceland America Energy Iceland America Energy Geothermal Development Strategy Magma Energy Corp. Magma Energy Geothermal Development Strategy Nevada Geothermal Power Nevada Geothermal Power Geothermal Development Strategy Ormat Ormat Geothermal Development Strategy Panax Geothermal Panax Geothermal Development Strategy Petratherm Petratherm Geothermal Development Strategy Polaris Geothermal Polaris Geothermal Development Strategy Ram Power Ram Power Geothermal Development Strategy Raser Technologies Inc. Raser Technologies Geothermal Development Strategy Sierra Geothermal Power Sierra Geothermal Power Geothermal Development Strategy US Geothermal US Geothermal Development Strategy Western GeoPower Corp. Western GeoPower Geothermal Development Strategy 6. Strategy Profiles: Global Utilities and IPPs Calpine Calpine Geothermal Development Strategy Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) CFE Geothermal Development Strategy Contact Energy Contact Energy Geothermal Development Strategy Enel Enel Geothermal Development Strategy First Gen Corp. First Gen Geothermal Development Strategy MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. MidAmerican Geothermal Development Strategy National Power Corp. (NPC) National Power Corp. Geothermal Development Strategy Philippine National Oil Co.-Energy Development Corp. (PNOC-EDC) PNOC-EDC Geothermal Development Strategy Orkuveita Reykjavíkur (Reykjavik Energy) Reykjavik Energy Geothermal Development Strategy 7. Strategy Profiles: Oil and Gas Players Chevron Chevron Geothermal Development Strategy Fellows Energy Fellows Energy Geothermal Development Strategy PT Pertamina (Persero) PT Pertamina Geothermal Development Strategy VI. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: GEOTHERMAL PLANT SUPPLY 1. Geothermal Technology Competition Power Block Differentiates Competition for Plant Supply Driller Competition Shifting Toward Specialists as Industry Picks up Steam 2. Geothermal Power Plant Market Share Analysis Regional Market Share Trends Impacting Competition Project Pipeline Reflects Strong Leadership with a Few Emerging Entrants Established OEMs Compete in Large Class Turbine Segment Japanese Suppliers Set to Continue Dominating Geothermal Steam Turbine Market Leading Traditional US and European Players Re-Evaluate Geothermal Strategy Binary Market Competition Ormat Attracts Competition as SmallScale Segment Poised for Growth UTC Steps in with Modular Approach Atlas Copco Snags Enel for First Commercial Orders Turboden, GMK, and TAS Compete for Niche Low-Temperature Opportunities Kalina Cycle Attracts Upstarts Looking for Competitive Edge 3. Drilling Competition Niche Players Look to Build Competitive Advantage as Market Heats Up ThermaSource Establishes Leadership Oil and Gas Heavyweights Developers Look to Integrate Drilling 4. Strategy Profiles: Large Steam Turbine Providers Alstom SA Ansaldo Energia Fuji Electric General Electric Kaluga Turbine Works Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Toshiba Organic Rankine Cycle / Kalina Cycle Providers Elliot Energy Systems GMK Mafi Trench (Atlas Copco) Siemens Turboden United Technologies Corporation (Pratt & Whitney) Drillers

700 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA TEL: +1.617.551.8580 FAX: +1.617.551.8481

PASEO DE GRACIA 47, PLANTA 2 BARCELONA, SPAIN 08007 TEL: +34.932.726.777 FAX: +34.934.676.754

Global Geothermal Markets and Strategies, 2009-2020

EER's market study is comprised of the following six sections:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Executive Summary Global Resource and Policy Drivers Geothermal Technology and Cost Trends Global Geothermal Market Analysis, 2009­2020 Competitive Analysis: Geothermal Development Strategies Competitive Analysis: Geothermal Plant Supply

EER provides extensive analysis of renewable power markets. Additional resource includes:

· Renewable Power Generation Advisory

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