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HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND DROUGHTS IN MEXICO

by by Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Mario Tiscareño López, Ph. D.* Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Josué Beltrán Cruz, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA Rafael Trejo Vazquez, LCA

October 18th, 2006 October 18th, 2006 Mexico City Mexico City

* Hydrologist * Hydrologist

Director of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A. Director of Agroclima Informática Avanzada, S.A.

Agriculture is a very risky economic activity

High inter-annual climate variability

El Niño Southern Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation

Induce high uncertainty in food production

Climate Anomalies

Crop losses in rain-fed agriculture of Mexico

Droughts Floods Pests Wind 0 5 4 20 % Losses 40 23

50

60

The presence of El Niño Southern Oscillation highly modify the climate of Central America and Mexico

El Niño

La Niña

CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS

250 Precip. (mm) 200 150 100 50 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D

1995 1997 1998 734 mm Neutral 661 El Niño 675 La Niña

Month

Weather Station in Huamantla, Tlax.

TREND OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN MEXICO AND ENSO EVENTS

20 15 millions 10 5 0

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

Year Prod (tons) Area (ha)

El Niño

La Niña

REGIONAL CICLONIC ACTIVITY

Number of Tropical Storms

ENSO & HURRICANES

· El Niño means more action in Pacific, suppression in Atlantic · La Niña and Neutral conditions more activity in Atlantic, suppression Pacific

WILMA HURRICANE

Formed Dissipated Highest winds Lowest pressure October 15, 2005 October 25, 2005

185 mph (295 km/h)

882 mbar (hPa)

Lowest pressure ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane Damages Fatalities $16-20 billion USD 22 direct, 40 indirect

ENSO, HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS

1995 Neutro 1996 1997 1998 1999 Neutro Strong El Niño La Niña La Niña

PRECIPITATION ANOMALY

Aug-Sep-Oct, 1996

NEUTRAL YEAR

% Dev. Avg Precip.

PRECIPITATION ANOMALY

Aug-Sep-Oct, 1997

STRONG EL NIÑO YEAR % Dev. Avg Precip.

PRECIPITATION ANOMALY

Aug-Sep-Oct, 1998

LA NIÑA YEAR

% Dev. Avg Precip.

PRECIPITATION ANOMALY

Aug-Sep-Oct, 1999

LA NIÑA YEAR % Dev. Avg Precip.

Total Annual Dissipated Energy by Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

SST, 6°-18°N, 20°- 60°W PDI North Atlantic

Emanuel (2005)

SST = Sea Surface Temperature

NORTH HEMISPHERE

(Accumulated Cyclone Energy)

Klotzbach (2006)

North Atlantic

Northeast Pacífic

HURRICANE ANALYSIS

MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA

I VIII II III

EVENT CLASIFICATION · · · · · · · Landfall region Category of the event Month of occurrence Length of records: 1960-2005 Only landfall accounted Total event: 460 Events cat. 3,4,5: 191

VII IV

VI

V

Sources of Info: NOAA, SMN, UNISYS

LA NIÑA

NEUTRAL

1960-1961 1961-1962 1965-1966 1967-1968 1976-1977 1977-1978 1978-1979 1979-1980 1980-1981 1982-1983 1983-1984 1984-1985 1988-1989 1989-1990 1991-1992 1992-1993 1993-1994 1994-1995 1995-1996 1999-2000 2000-2001 2002-2003 2003-2004 2005-

EL NIÑO

1962-1963 1964-1965 1968-1969

YEARS CLASSIFICACTION BASED ON THE ENSO INDEX

Japanese Meteorological Agency, SSTA

1963-1964 1966-1967 1969-1970 1970-1971 1972-1973

1971-1972

1975-1976

1960 - 2005

1973-1974 1974-1975 1987-1988 1997-1998 1998-1999

1981-1982

1985-1986 1986-1987 1990-1991

1996-1997

2001-2002 2004-2005

AVERAGE ANNUAL HURRICANES BY REGION

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII ALL 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII NEUTRAL

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 I II III

NIÑAS 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 IV V VI VII VIII I II III

NIÑOS

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

10

15

20

25

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0 Neutral

Hurricanes per year

5 Niño Niña

ATLANTIC

10

15

20

25

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990

Niña

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

0 Neutral

5

PACIFIC

Niño

Hurricanes per year

MODELING HURRICANE LANDFALL

Assuming that ... The occurrence of one hurricane can be treated as an independent event from the occurrence of another hurricane, thus ...

The occurrence of hurricanes can be modeled with a Poisson distribution:

Pr (X = x) =

e - x

x!

x = 0, 1, 2, ...

= avg annual hits

Probability of at least one hurricane

= 1 - Pr (X=0)

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

ALL EVENTS

PACIFIC I ALL NEUTRAL NIÑAS NIÑOS 0.479 0.513 0.503 0.365 II 0.865 0.885 0.850 0.876 III 0.820 0.814 0.817 0.838 IV 0.817 0.828 0.865 0.720 V 0.543 0.585 0.667 0.239 ATLANTIC VI 0.757 0.743 0.889 0.559 VII 0.533 0.632 0.593 0.087 VIII 0.590 0.585 0.798 0.239

CATEGORY 3, 4 y 5

PACIFIC I ALL NEUTRAL LA NIÑA EL NIÑO 0.160 0.148 0.095 0.239 II 0.729 0.674 0.632 0.597 III 0.479 0.513 0.451 0.420 IV 0.444 0.493 0.330 0.365 V 0.309 0.356 0.393 0.087 ATLANTIC VI 0.353 0.381 0.330 0.239 VII 0.178 0.213 0.259 0.000 VIII 0.353 0.274 0.727 0.087

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL, ALL CAT.

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 I II III Todos 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 VI VII VIII I II III Neutros

IV

V

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 I II III

Niñas

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 VI VII VIII I II III

Niños

IV

V

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL CAT. 3, 4, 5

By ENSO Phase

0.80 0.70

PROBABILITY

All

Neutro

La Niña

El Niño

0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 0 I 1 II 2

III3

IV 4

V 5

VI 6

VII 8 VIII 9 7

REGION

PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

Category 3, 4 y 5 Neutral Years 14.8% 27.4% 67.4% 51.3% 21.3% 49.3%

March, 2006 Like, year 2006

38.1%

35.6%

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

MONTHLY PROBABILITY

HURRICANE LANFALL AND RETURN PERIOD

1.0

M Prob (1) PR 0

J 0

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

J 0

A

S

O

N 0

NEUTRAL

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

0.18 0.33 0.11 5.52 3.03 8.84

M Prob (1) PR

M J J A S O N

J

J

A

S

O

N

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4

0

0.18 0.15 0.18 0.11 0.11 0.08 5.52 6.76 5.52 8.84 8.84 13

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

Prob (1) 0.04 0.04 0.21 0.38 0.53 0.43 0.04 25.5 25.5 4.69 2.62 1.88 2.33 25.5 PR

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

0.2 0.0

M

M J J A S O

J

J

A

S

O

N

Prob (1) N

0

0.18 0.21 0.21 0.3 0.24 0.04

Prob (1) PR

M J J A S O N 0

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

0

0.15 0.11 0.15 0.24 0.21 PR 0.04 6.76 8.84 6.76 4.09 4.69 25.5

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0

5.52 4.69 4.69 3.31 4.09 25.5

Prob (1) 0.04 0.24 0.21 0.27 0.24 0.41 25.5 4.09 4.69 3.65 4.09 2.47 PR

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

Prob (1) 0.04 0.38 0.18 0.27 0.33 0.24 0.04 PR 25.5 2.62 5.52 3.65 3.03 4.09 25.5 PR

Prob (1) 0.04 0.04 0.15 0.11 0.18 0.15 0.15 25.5 25.5 6.76 8.84 5.52 6.76 6.76

ATLANTIC

PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

0.2

Neutral

PROBABILITY Probabilidad

0.16 0.12 0.08 0.04 0 0 5 10 15 20

El Niño La Niña

25

NUMBER OF HURRICANES No. de Huracanes

PACIFICO

PROB. DENSITY FUNCTION OF HURRICANE LANDFALL

0.18

PROBABILITY Probabilidad

0.15 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0 0 3 6 9 12 15

Neutral El Niño La Niña

18

NUMBER OF HURRICANES

No. de Huracanes

HURRICANE ACTIVITY IN YEAR 2006

HURRICANE LANDFALL IN YEAR 2006

PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN SEPTEMBER DE 2006

% Desv.

ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN YEAR 2006

% Desv.

ABANDON SOYBEANS FIELD DUE TO DROUGHT IN SOURTHERN TAMAULIPAS

OCT, 2006

CONCLUSIONS

A large contribution of precipitation for agricultural use come from hurricane impacts Analyses of hurricanes landfall can be help to identify regions that would be subjected to summer drought. Modeling of hurricane landfall by areas and intensity of the event would provide relevant information of regions likely to occur drought conditions.

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