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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

(data update 1/13/2012)

National Energy Technology Laboratory

Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & Planning

Erik Shuster

January 13, 2012

Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

This report is intended to provide an overview of proposed new coal-fired power plants that are under development. This report may not represent all possible plants under consideration but is intended to illustrate the potential that exists for installation of new coal-fired power plants. Additional perspective has been added for non-coal-fired generation additions in the U.S. and coal-fired power plant activity in China. Experience has shown that public announcements of power plant developments do not provide an accurate representation of eventually commissioned power plants. Actual plant capacity commissioned has historically been significantly less then new capacity announced. The report focuses on those coal-fired power plant projects that have achieved significant progress toward completion, to provide a more accurate assessment of the ability of this segment of the power generation industry to support demand for new electricity capacity in various regions of the United States.

The Department of Energy does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of this information.

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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

· This report provides a perspective of coal-fired power plants that are currently under development, with a focus on those having made significant progress toward achieving commercial operation · The status of projects identified varies from project announcements to those under construction · Announced projects are not necessarily strong indicators of commitment of capital and human resources to actual development and follow-through to actual capacity additions is highly dependent on the market environment · Plants that are permitted or under construction ("Progressing Projects") reflect a more significant financial and human resource commitment to completion and offer a better perspective of the new generation capacity that may be forthcoming

3

Past Capacity Announcements vs. Actual

Figure 1

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Delays in Implementation

Capacity (GW)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual capacity completed has been shown to be significantly less than proposed capacity; the 2002 report listed 11,455 MW of proposed capacity for the year 2005 when only 329 MW were constructed.

Actual

4

2002 Report

2005 Report

2007 Report

2012 Report

Source: 2007 & 2012 data Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite 2002 ­ 2005 data ­ Previous NETL Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants Reports

Latest Capacity Announcements vs. Actual

Figure 1a

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Capacity (GW)

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Total Identified Capacity Declines Due to Commissioning, Cancelations, and Fewer Postponements

Actual

Totals

5

2012

28 GW

2010

32 GW

2009

49 GW

2008

64 GW

16 GW

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite 2012 data ­ 1/13/2012

Current Coal-Fired Capacity Projects (Annual Change)

Table 1

General Status

Under Construction

Dec 2010

Number of Plants

Jan 2012

10 1 13

Capacity (MW)

Dec 2010

Net Change

-2 0 5

Jan 2012

6,519 320 8,934

Net Change

-1,100 0 2,488

12 1 8

7,619 320 6,446

Progressing Projects

Near Construction Permitted

SUB TOTAL Uncertain Potential and Timing Announced (early stages of development) TOTAL Commissioned this Period TOTAL December 2011 Progressing and Commissioned

Status Listing Under Construction Near Construction Permitted Announced

6

21 36 57

-

24 24 48

5

3 -12 -9

5

14,385 17,385 32,259

-

15,773 11,871 27,644

2,343

1,388 -5,514 -4,615

2,343

53

-4

29,987

-2,272

Description

Project is under construction. Project has been approved; majority or all permits are obtained. Sponsor is contracting vendors and Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractors. Site preparation has begun. In the permitting phase. Two or more permits approved or fuel or power contracts have been negotiated. Early stages of development to filing for permits. May include a feasibility study.

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite Data reflects change between 12/13/2010 and 1/13/2012

Current Capacity Additions by Years

Refer to Table 1

· Table 1 reflects the current status of coal-fired plant development activity as of January 13, 2012 and shows the nominal annual change (December 13, 2010 through

January 13, 2012)

·

"Progressing" plants represent projects with status indicating permitted, near construction, or under construction

·

"Progressing" plants have attained a higher likelihood of advancing toward commercial operation; however, regulatory uncertainty, market perception and

industry cost increases continue to impact development decisions for all projects

· · 2,343 MW (6 units at 5 plants) have become operational during 2011 & Jan 2012 There has been a net increase of 1,388 MW (+10%) of total Progressing and/or Commissioned projects through 2011 over Progressing projects in January

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Current Coal Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 2

9 8 7

Commissioned in 2011 & Jan 2012 · Dry Fork (390 MW) · Oak Creek (615 MW) · Point Comfort (310 MW) · Whelan (220 MW) · Longview (808 MW)

Capacity (GW)

6

5 4 3 2 1 0

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Actual Proposed

Operational Dates

8

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Currently Proposed and Forecasted Coal-Fired Capacity Figure 3

8 7

6

Capacity (GW) 5 4

Virtually No New Coal in Reference case Following Several CCS Demos

3

2 1

0

Proposed-Progressing

9

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012) EIA ­ AEO 2011, Reference Case

Proposed-Announced

EIA AEO 2011

Last 50 Years of New Coal Capacity

Figure 4

18 16 GW's of New Capacity 14 12 10 8

Largest Build Since 1985

6

4 2 0

10

Source: Ventyx­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Net Capacity Changes (Removed and Added Opportunities)

Figure 5

1

Commissioned in Dec 2010 - Jan 2012 · Dry Fork (390 MW) · Oak Creek (615 MW) · Point Comfort (310 MW) · Whelan (220 MW) · Longview (808 MW)

32% of MWs removed represent "Announced" projects 48% of MWs removed due to Commissioned plants

Proposed Online Year

Capacity (GW)

0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2017

Removed Capacity

Capacity Change Breakdown 2,343 MW operational now removed from the list 2,890 MW canceled

-1

· 1,325 MW permitted canceled · 1,565 MW announcements canceled

-2

Under Construction

Near Construction

Permitted

Announced

Added Announcements

Removed Capacity

Total Net Reductions (less operating) -2,272 MW

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Source: Ventyx­ Velocity Suite (12/13/2010 and 12/13/2012)

Proposed Technologies of New Plants

(with Annual change)

Figure 6

Number of Plants

20

11

10

Announced Progressing

7 4

4 6

2 7 7

0

Table 2

Progressing Technology Listings Announced

Operational

(Since 2000)

(Permitted, Near-, and Under Construction)

Total Proposed December 2010 15 13 11 18 Jan 2012

(Change)

December 2010

Jan 2012

(Change)

December 2010 10 9 4 13

Jan 2012

(Change)

PC Subcritical CFB PC Supercritical IGCC

12

31 12 7 1

5 4 7 5

4 (-1) 6 (-2) 7 (0) 7 (2)

7 (-3) 4 (-5) 2 (-2) 11 (-2)

11 (-4) 10 (-3) 9 (-2) 18 (0)

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite Data collected (12/13/2010); Current Report data collected (1/13/2012)

Geographical location by State: Coal-Fired Plants

(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Figure 7

13

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Location by NERC Regions: Coal-Fired Plants

(Permitted, Near Construction, and Under Construction)

Figure 8

14

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Specified Coal Ranks

All Proposed Plants

Figure 9

Proposed Plant Capacities (MW)

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000

1,000

0

16,790 MW "Generic Coal" not shown on chart

15

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Coal-Fired Build Rate

China and United States

Figure 10 90

Results are Stacked

273 GW of Undetermined Dates of Chinese Plants

80 70 Capacity (GW) 60 50 40 30

20

10 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Online Year Planned no date (evenly distributed

over 4 years)

16

Source: USA data - Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012) China data ­ Platts - UDI WEPPDB December 2011

Coal-Fired Power Plants Retirements

Recently announced retirements of currently operating coal-fired power plants with retirement date from 2012 2020

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Current Coal Capacity Additions/Retirements by Years

Figure 2a

10 8

Announced Permitted Near Construction

6

Under Construction

Actual Constructed Proposed Retirements Retired

Capacity (GW)

4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

24.7 GW of specific announced plant retirements

(does not include general company announced retirements that do not include a specific unit)

-8

18

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates (above) / Retirement Dates (below)

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Announced Coal-Fired Retirements

(2012 ­ 2020)

24.7 GW of specific announced plant retirements

Total retirement capacity at the plant level

19

Announced Coal-Fired Retirements

24.7 GW

Capacity Factor vs. Size

100 Capacity Factor (%) 80 60 40 20 0 Capacity Factor (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0

Capacity Factor vs. Age

0

200

400 Size (MW)

600

800

0

20

40 Age (Years)

60

80

Parameter Average Capacity Factor Average size (MW) Average Age of Units % of units with No SO2 Control % of units with Planned SO2 Control

Value 45.6% 191 MW 54 Yeas 84% 6%

Trend Observed Lower capacity factors Units under 200 MW in size Older units being retired Units with out SO2 controls Units that did not have plans to install SO2 controls

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Operating Coal-Fired Fleet

Announced Retirements & Remaining Units

Capacity Factor vs. Size

Capacity Factor (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 Capacity Factor (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 0

Capacity Factor vs. Age

0

500

Size (MW) Remaining

1000

1500

20

40 60 Age (Years)

80

100

Announced Retirements Remaining Announced Retirements

Announced Retirements: 24.7 GW Remaining Plants: ~300 GW

21

Other Generation Development Activity

22

Proposed U.S. New Capacity

Figure 12

70

Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)

Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

60 50 40 30

20

10 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Coal NG Wind Nuclear

23

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite 1/13/2012

Status of Proposed New U.S. Capacity

Figure 13

70

60 50 40 30 20 10

Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc Coal NG Wind Nuc 2019 Coal NG Wind Nuc 2020

Coal, Natural Gas, Wind, and Nuclear

Proposed Nameplate Capacity (GW)

0

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Under Construction

24

Near Construction

Permitted

Announced

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite 1/13/2012

Current Wind Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 14

60 50

Capacity (GW)

40 30

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

20

10 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates

25

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Current NGCC Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 15

45 40 35

Capacity (GW)

30 25 20

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

15

10

5

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates

26

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Current NG-GT Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 16

25

20

Capacity (GW)

15

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

10

5

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates

27

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

Current Nuclear Capacity Additions by Years

Figure 17

10 9 8

Capacity (GW)

7 6 5 4

Watts Bar Unit 2

Construction begun in the 1970s, suspended in 1988 at 80% complete, currently revived with completion due 2012.

Announced Permitted Near Construction Under Construction Actual

3 2

1 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Actual

Proposed

Operational Dates

28

Source: Ventyx ­ Velocity Suite (1/13/2012)

U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Summary ­ Year 2011

12/13/2010 ­ 1/13/2012

· Five new coal-plants totaling 2,343 MW were Commissioned in 2011

· Progressing/Commissioned projects by January 2012 have had a net increase of 3 plants; a net change in capacity of 1,388 MW (+10%) over Progressing projects

· 1,599 MW of new capacity has been Announced and 2,890 MW have been canceled

­ Of 2,890 MW canceled plants, 54% were Announced phase and 46% were Progressing

· Compared to previous years, fewer projects are being Announced to offset recent Commissioning

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Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants

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