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CAULFIELD CUP PREVIEW October 16, 2010: 2400m. Race 8, 4.05pm

OVERVIEW

(Based on a track rated heavy8) A wet and wild Caulfield Cup day is not a usual occurrence, despite Melbourne's often fickle spring weather. Recent wet Caulfield Cups have been won by Elvstroem (2004) on a dead track and Ethereal (2001) and Doriemus (1995) in the slow. Tomorrow's track ­ somewhere between slow and heavy ­ will be the wettest since Mannerism ploughed through the mud to touch out Veandercross in 1992; before that it was Lord Reims in 1987. The wet trackers this year include many of the favourites, particularly Shock ing, Me tal Bender, Hercul ian Prin ce and Faint Perfume, so there has been little change to the betting order since the rain arrived on Wednesday. I expect money to come for the Kiwi mudder Harris Twee d, Monaco Consul and Luca Cumani's Manighar. Lloyd Williams' import Mourayan essentially has firm track form, but he did run third in the G1 Irish Derby on a dead track ­ I would consider a Curragh dead to be like a Caulfield slow. Alcopo p is one of the unknowns. His best runs are on firm ground, but his form shows a slow win in the JRC Cup at Moonee Valley ­ the Moonee Valley StrathAyr slow is a totally different surface that what he will get at Caulfield. I'm sticking with the view I have held since the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington on October ­ Metal Bender. I declared after that race that I had seen the Caulfield Cup winner and the Melbourne Cup winner; I believe Shocking is a near certainty to win the Melbourne Cup. Metal Bender is yet to prove himself at 2400 metres, but his 2000m form is outstanding, winning the 2009 G1 Rosehill Guineas and 2010 G1 Doomben Cup. His fourth in the Turnbull, with any luck, could have been a win, as he was badly blocked in the early part of the straight. The wet track will bring Metal Bender and Shocking closer together in the Caulfield Cup, in fact, it will probably favor the proven, tough stayer a little more.

TAB 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 HORSE Shocking Metal Bender (NZ) Mr Medici (IRE) Tokai Trick (JPN) Buccellati (GB) Harris Tweed (NZ) Manighar (FR) Master O'Reilly (NZ) Monaco Consul (NZ) Triple Honour (NZ) Zavite (NZ) Alcopop Herculian Prince (NZ) Zabrasive (NZ) Descarado (NZ) Jessicabeel (NZ) Faint Perfume Dariana JOCKEY Michael Rodd Hugh Bowman Gerald Mosse Shinji Fujita Steven King Brad Rawiller Damien Oliver SCRATCHED Craig Williams Larry Cassidy Ben Melham Mark Zahra Glyn Schofield SCRATCHED Chris Munce James Winks Glen Boss Luke Nolen Nicholas Hall Mark du Plessis TRAINER Mark Kavanagh Chris Waller Peter Ho Kenji Nonaka Tony Noonan Murray & Bjorn Baker Luca Cumani Danny O'Brien Michael Moroney Chris Waller Anthony Cummings Jake Stephens Gai Waterhouse John O'Shea Gai Waterhouse John O'Shea Bart Cummings Bart Cummings Robert Hickmott John Sargent Luca Cumani Jason Maskiell (a) Tony Vasil

rd

BR 11 2 14

WGT 57 56 55

TAB Odds $6 $7.50 $18 $35 $81 $26 $11

DP* Ratings $6 $6 $34 $26 $41 $13 $31

19 54.5 15 9 3 54 54 54 54 13 10 17 54 54 54

$21 $35 $81 $9 $7

$17 $51 $81 $13 $10

20 53.5 6 53.5 53 16 52.5 18 52.5 7 52

$26 $61 $9 $11 $26 $101 $21 $61

$41 $61 $12 $16 $34 $101 $34 $81

8 51.5 5 53.5 1 53.5 4 12 53 50

19e Mourayan (IRE) 20e Red Ruler (NZ) 21e Drunken Sailor (IRE) 22e Valdemoro

Percentages: TAB (116%); DP (102%) ­ not including 3 & 4th emergencies. * Danny Power's ratings are a guide only. TAB price as at 6.00pm Thursday. Shocking has an amazing record at 2400 metres or further ­ four tries for two wins and two seconds, all at Group level. Expect him to be in the finish. I expect Harris Tweed to run a mighty race now that the rain has arrived. He won the G2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) in the wet last year. I still regard his fifth in last year's Melbourne Cup as the second best run in the race behind the winner Shocking. Herculian Prince will set a hectic pace and he needs to bounce out to get to the front early. The concern is that it is no easy task to lead and win a Caulfield Cup, especially without having raced at Caulfield before. Faint Perfume gets blinkers for the first time. It should see her improve on her recent moderate form.

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I don't think a wet track will change the thinking of too many people, as the in-form, fancied runners generally handle soft going. I will be happy to back both Shock ing and Me tal Be nder on Betfair. I will be shopping for around $7.50 for both. The saving bet will be on Harris Tweed. He has blossomed this trip and I believe he worked outstandingly at Flemington on Tuesday. He's fit and ready, and the wet ground will slow the others down. Any price better than $15. The lay is Alcopop ­ he will have to go back from 18 and I'm not sure he is a wet tracker.

SPEED MAP

Predicted positions on settling

THE TOP SIX

1. Metal Bender 2. Shocking 3. Harris Tweed 4. Herculian Prince 5. Faint Perfume 6. Monaco Consul

ANALYSIS BY RUNNER

1. SHOCKING

(b h 5, Street Cry (IRE)-Maria Di Castiglia (GB), by Danehill (USA)) Australia's outstanding stayer who won last year's G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) but this spring he has taken another step up the class ladder by winning the G2 Makybe Diva Stakes (wfa, 1600m) at Flemington. Warmed up for this with a tremendous second behind Zipping in the G2 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington. This meeting last year he finished second behind Baughurst in the G3 Coongy Handicap (2000m), so he's come a long way in 12 months to be top weight in the Caulfield Cup. Only one win from nine starts on this track ­ he's been beaten only once in five Flemington runs ­ but he's in great form, handles it wet and he's virtually unbeatable at2400m or further. Michael Rodd will give him a perfect ride. The last horse to win the Caulfield Cup after winning the Melbourne Cup was Viewed in 2009. Shocking is a better horse than Viewed.

(Shocking second, Shoot Out third) in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington two weeks ago. But a study of his form shows that wet tracks hold no fear for him, as he has had two wins and a second from three starts on slow going. His only try at this trip was in last year's G1 AJC Derby (2400m, Randwick) when he was eighth behind Roman Emperor, but he'd won the G1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and G1 Randwick Guineas (1600m) before that, and he followed up with a second behind Sarrera in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (wfa, 2000m, Randwick). Last winter he was strong to the line winning the G1 Doomben Cup (wfa, 2020m) at Doomben. Had a feel of this track two starts back when a terrific third behind the star So You Think in the G1 Underwood Stakes (wfa, 1800m) and he has drawn a gate to get a nice run along the fence. He remains my top pick.

ran second behind Railings in the 2005 Caulfield Cup when ridden by this horse's jockey, Shinji Fujita. Tokai Trick this year won the Manyo (3000m) at Kyoto in January and the G2 Daishoten (3000m, Hanshin) in March before finishing ninth behind Jaguar Mail in the G1 Tenno Sho (3200m) at Kyoto in May. Trainer said he had no luck in the Tenno Sho. Interestingly, Eye Popper also won the Manyo, finished second in the Daishoten before finishing third in the Tenno Sho. The wide draw will suit him, as he will be grinding away not far from the front in typical Japanese style. Unknown on wet ground. It's hard to consider him.

5. BUCCELLATI (GB)

(ch h 7, Soviet Star (USA)-Susi Wong (IRE), by Selkirk (USA)) Import now trained at Mornington by Tony Noonan. His first two Australian starts, in the G2 Memsie Stakes (wfa, 1400m) and the G1 Underwood Stakes (wfa 1800m) behind So You Think, were shockers, but he bounced back with a big performance for seventh behind Zipping in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington after racing handy and bursting clear at the 400m. Worth noting that he was galloped on in that race and pulled up a bit sore. Improving with fitness and over the longer distances. Best form is on firm ground, but a cheeky run wouldn't surprise, as he has won three times at this trip.

3. MR MEDICI (IRE)

(b h 6, Medicean (GB)-Way For Life (GER), by Platini (GER)) One of the mystery horses of the race. This former smart Irish galloper has a wonderful record in Hong Kong, and he showed his class in May when he won the G1 Champions and Chater Cup (wfa, 2400m) at Sha Tin. He hasn't raced since, which is the biggest worry, but his form line through the likes of Viva Pataca is world class. That Chater Cup win was on wet ground ­ and he also has won on a bog (excuse the pun) in Ireland at Limerick as a 3YO. It will be one of the great training performances to win a Caulfield Cup first up on a Hong Kong preparation. Can he do it? I doubt it.

2. METAL BENDER (NZ)

(b g 5, Danasinga-Jacqwin, by Bluebird (USA)) Initially when the rain arrived I lost my confidence in my opinion that Metal Bender was the certain Caulfield Cup winner after his terrific late-closing and luckless fourth behind Zipping

4. TOKAI TRICK (JPN)

(b h 9, El Condor Pasa (USA)-Zoonaqua (USA), by Silver Hawk (USA)) Grand old Japanese galloper, who is here as probably a rung or two below the likes of Delta Blues and Pop Rock, but his form is comparable to Eye Popper who

6. HARRIS TWEED (NZ)

(b g 5, Montjeu (IRE)-Sally (NZ), by Prized (USA)) Underrated galloper who has been given a softer lead-up to this race by trainers Murray and Bjorn Baker because he lacked the zip to be

competitive at weight-for-age. Rewarded the Bakers for their foresight with a strong win, carrying 58.5kg, in the Listed Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington. He raced forward and held on well after hitting the front at the 300 metres. He comes right in to this race ­ he was an even 10th behind Viewed last year ­ following the rain and the drop of 4.5kg in weight. Last year he won the G2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m, Rosehill) before finishing second behind Roman Emperor in the G1 AJC Derby (2400m, Randwick) on a dead/slow track. This year he was third behind Jessicabeel in both the G2 Chairman's Handicap (2600m, Randwick) and G1 Sydney Cup (3200m, Randwick). He is very fit after having a 2500m run under his belt and he's drawn to get the right run. Jockey Brad Rawiller won this race last year on Viewed by hugging the rails.

This smart Classic winning horse is becoming a bit of an enigma. He has been drawing inside gates but he has been hanging and shying while boxed in on the fence. His most recent run was a 12 th behind Zipping in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington. Trainer Michael Moroney, who has had no luck in this race, believes the run should be forgiven. "He will be better when he can race outside horses," Moroney said. Monaco Consul has drawn the right barrier (15) this time, and he handles wet tracks ­ last spring he won the G1 Spring Champion Stakes (2000m, Randwick) on heavy ground before storming home out wide to win the G1 Victoria Derby (2500m, Flemington). Don't discount him, especially with top big-race jockey Craig Williams in the saddle. Pacifiers and cross-over noseband go on.

10. TRIPLE HONOUR (NZ)

(b g 6, Honours List (IRE)-Myrrh (NZ), by Nassipour (USA)) The 2007 G1 Doncaster Handicap (1600m, Randwick) winner trying a new life as a stayer. His only win beyond 1600m was in the G2 Eagle Farm Cup (2200m) at Eagle Farm in June, when he beat Raffaello. Comes into this race off a consistent Sydney campaign, without winning. He raced outside the leader when a battling third behind C'Est La Guerre in the G3 Craven Plate (2000m, Randwick) on Oct. 2. Handles wet ground, but not good enough to win a Caulfield Cup. Prefer stablemate Metal Bender.

7. MANIGHAR (FR)

(gr g 5, Linamix (FR)-Mintly Fresh (USA), by Rubiano (USA)) Australian-owned galloper who has been imported by ace trainer Luca Cumani with the G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m) in mind. Cumani started Purple Moon to finish sixth in the 2007 Caulfield Cup behind Master O'Reilly and in 2008 Mad Rush charged late for a fourth behind All The Good, a performance that earned him favouritism for the Melbourne Cup. This fellow, originally from France, has won six of his 12 starts ­ six of his first seven, including three wins over this trip. Four starts back he finished second behind Godolphin's smart Melbourne Cup hope Holberg in the Listed Tapster (2400m) at Goodwood, and at his most recent run he was beaten a long head by another Cup chance, Americain, in the G2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m) at Deauville on Aug. 22. He may not have the zip to win this, and it's not certain he's as good as the likes of Purple Moon and Bauer, but Cumani is too good not to respect. Damien Oliver, who has won this race four times, will ride him from an inside barrier.

quicker than Viewed won the Caulfield Cup (admittedly the track was dead4 on cup day), but that's 15 lengths! He ran very well for sixth in the Melbourne Cup, but it has taken him 12 months to find his best form. Burst into calculations with a great second behind the in-form star So You Think in the G1 Yalumba Stakes (wfa, 2000m) here last week, running past Whobegotyou in the last 200m. His closing sectionals were comparable to the winner. Unfortunately he will come from the "car park" in barrier 18, so I expect Mark Zahra will ease him back. Back runners rarely circle the field to win Caulfield Cups ­ they sneak through the field from the 600m. That's what Zahra will need to do to get this horse into the finish. Mummify won the Caulfield Cup after finishing second in the Yalumba in 2003.

13. HERCULIAN PRINCE (NZ)

(b g 5, Yamanin Vital (NZ)-Sea Island (NZ), by Woodman (USA)) Comes to Melbourne with a huge Gai Waterhouse-inspired boom on him. Got his tongue over the bit when he flopped as long odds-on favourite in the G2 Colin Stephen Handicap (2400m) at Randwick on Sept. 25, but resurrected himself a week later ­ with a bit lifter as a gear change ­ to brilliantly win the G1 Metropolitan Handicap (2400m, Randwick) after leading to the 700m, taking a sit, before coming again to beat Mourayan by 3.5 lengths. He's a fast-running stayer with the Waterhouse grit, but it's worth noting that Waterhouse's record in this race with her stayers coming through the Metrop is poor. She trained Aqua D'Amore to finish second behind Tawqeet in 2006. Herculian Prince is a headstrong horse, and he will need to settle after the mad dash to the first turn, especially with pressure from out wide, to be able to win this at his first try around tricky Caulfield. The wet track is of no concern ­ the Yamanin Vital breed are "ducks".

11. ZAVITE (NZ)

(b g 8, Zabeel (NZ)-Miss Vita (USA), by Alleged (USA)) Ran his worst race for ages when last of 16 behind Zipping in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington two weeks ago. He worked on the pace, but he was gone on the turn. It's hard to work out what went wrong, because his on-pace fourth behind the star So You Think in the G1 Underwood Stakes (wfa, 1800m, Caulfield) before that was a beauty. Last year he led to the 500m before weakening for ninth behind Viewed in this race. He will roll forward from his wide draw, and he might get a good position behind Herculian Prince, who will lead. He can sneak a place at long odds.

8. MASTER O'REILLY (NZ)

(b or br g 8, O'Reilly (NZ)-Without Remorse (NZ), by Bakharoff (USA)) SCRATCHED.

12. ALCOPOP

(b g 6, Jeune-Iota Of Luck, by Blevic) The boom horse from last spring, who missed this race after his trainer forgot to pay the second declarations. He won the 2009 G2 Herbert Power Handicap over this course in a time that was 2.5 secs

14. ZABRASIVE (NZ)

(b g 4, Zabeel (NZ)-Danasia, by Danehill (USA)) SCRATCHED

9. MONACO CONSUL (NZ)

(b h 4, High Chaparral (IRE)-Argante (NZ), by Star Way (GB))

15. DESCARADO (NZ)

(b g 4, High Chaparral (IRE)-Karamea Lady (NZ), by Lord Ballina) Lesser fancied stablemate of Herculian Prince. Earned a crack at this race last autumn by finishing second behind Shoot Out in the G1 AJC Derby (2400m, Randwick), and he showed he was back on track with a sound on-pace win in the G2 Hill Stakes (wfa, 1900m) at Rosehill on Sept. 18, beating Triple Honour. Only run in Melbourne was in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington) two weeks ago when he ran a shocker, finishing 14th, beaten 12 lengths, after working on the pace. It was an inglorious performance, and it's hard to see him reversing that form ­ and there is no gear change to suggest that there was something amiss. He will go forward from out wide, but won't cross his stablemate.

run midfield on the inside and she will relish the wet ground. The last 4YO mare to win this race was Ethereal in 2001. Drops a handy 4kg, which will suit a smaller mare. Last season Faint Perfume won the G1 VRC Oaks (2500m, Flemington). Cummings has won this race seven times. Big-race jockey Glen Boss is on board, and this is one big race he hasn't got on his CV.

main body of this field because his trainer elected to stick to a weightfor-age path, which deprived him of a competitive form line. He gets in now. Last year he finished 18th in this race and was spelled, and he remains an Australian maiden, which didn't help his cause. His last win was in the G1 Wellington Cup (2400m) in January.

18. DARIANA

(b m 5, Redoute's Choice-Beldarian (IRE), by Last Tycoon (IRE)) Another high-class 4YO mare in the Bart Cummings stable. Cummings anointed her as a cups horse to watch early in the season, and he will have been very satisfied with her second-up second behind stablemate So You Think (Metal Bender third) in the G1 Underwood Stakes (wfa 1800m) at Caulfield on Sept. 18, but she was disappointing finishing 11th behind Zipping in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington two weeks ago, when she got back, but showed little dash. Jockey Steven Arnold felt the mare was lacklustre throughout. If anyone can turn this mare's form around it will be Cummings. She showed in the winter, when she beat the boys in the G1 Queensland Guineas (2400m, Eagle Farm) that she is a galloper of great quality. The stable is concerned that she needs firm ground. The in-form Luke Nolen will ride her. Cummings has won this race seven times.

21E. DRUNKEN SAILOR (IRE)

(b g 6, Tendulkar (USA)-Ronni Pancake (GB), by Mujadil (USA)) One of Luca Cumani's Melbourne Cup hopefuls, who is believed to have settled in well into quarantine. At his most recent run he won the Listed March Stakes (2800m) at Goodwood in August. It was his first win at Stakes level in 31 starts, but it's worth noting he has improved dramatically since joining Cumani's team after racing in Dubai earlier this year. Cumani already has decided to run this horse in the Geelong Cup on Wednesday.

16. JESSICABEEL (NZ)

(b m 5, Zabeel (NZ)-More Diamonds (NZ), by Straight Strike (USA)) The 2010 G1 Sydney Cup winner. She looked very fat before the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, Flemington), when 10th behind Zipping, but there was a lot to like about the ground she made late after turning in last place. Heading for the Melbourne Cup, and although she is not primed to win this, it will be a guide to her chances over 3200m at Flemington. Expect her to settle back and make ground. Jockey James Winks rode Douro Valley to finish second behind master O'Reilly in this race in 2007. Handles dead/slow ground. Only Makybe Diva (2004) has won a Sydney Cup and Caulfield Cup in the same year.

22E. VALDEMORO

(b m 4, Encosta De Lago-Hveger, by Danehill (USA)) Very good mare but she didn't deserve a start on her recent form. Poor fourth behind Playwright in the Benalla Cup (2046m) on Oct. 3.

19E. MOURAYAN (IRE)

(b or br h 5, Alhaarth (IRE)-Mouramara (IRE), by Kahyasi (IRE)) The only import from the large Lloyd Williams team showing anything like his best northern hemisphere form. He has been ridden very aggressively at his last two starts to finish ninth behind Rainbow Styling in the Listed Naturalism Stakes (2000m, Caulfield) which blew away the cobwebs for him to run a very cheeky second behind Herculian Prince in the G1 Metropolitan Handicap (2400m, Randwick) on Oct. 2. Getting fitter with every run, and he could be a surprise now he has made it into this field. His overseas form is first class, including a third behind Fame And Glory in the G1 Irish Derby (2400m) at the Curragh, on dead ground, which is probably the equivalent to slow ground in Australia.

17. FAINT PERFUME

(b m 4, Shamardal (USA)-Zona, by Zabeel (NZ)) Started this spring as one of the favourites for this race and the Melbourne Cup but she has lost some gloss. Her three runs from a spell have been unimpressive, even a bit one-paced. Had a three-week break before finishing sixth behind Zipping in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington two weeks ago, when she moved into the race before the turn, but only battled to be beaten 5 lengths. Shocking (2nd) and Metal Bender (4th) were infinitely better runs. However, her great trainer Bart Cummings has added blinkers for the first time, and the mare has been working in them for a couple of weeks, so it is a plan. Drawn to get the right

20E. RED RULER (NZ)

(b g 6, Viking Ruler-Ransom Bay (USA), by Red Ransom (USA)) Top-quality New Zealand galloper, who was in danger of missing a position in the

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