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The global market for RFID 2010-2020

Dr Peter Harrop [email protected]

www.IDTechEx.com

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

RFID is a fast growing business

$bn Tags Other Total

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

2005 1.0 0.9 1.9

2010 2.1 3.5 5.6

2020 9.9 12 21.9

© IDTechEx Ltd

It is not all about paybacks

GOVERNMENT LAWS ­ fit it to your cattle in Australia, Canada, Uruguay, Botswana, dogs in New Zealand, sheep and goats in Europe or go to jail GOVERNMENT MONEY ­ largest orders are military and local government for non stop road tolling and air baggage in USA/Korea and city cards and national ID card in China. E-Passports in 70 countries CRIME PREVENTION ­ hospitals, postal service ERROR PREVENTION ­ healthcare LIFE SAVING AND HEALTH - healthcare

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

Largest orders are placed by Government

China National ID Card $6 billion HF passive ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active (In 2006, New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace 1.1 million old E-Z pass toll tags before their batteries ran out) Savi Technology for US Army $500 million 433 MHz active Unisys consortium for US Army $500 million 433MHz active/UHF passive E-Passports UK ­ De La Rue $600 million E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF passive E-passport RFID inserts for USA $50 million HF passive Applied Digital river readers US Army/ Bonneyville Hydro $45 m LF passive

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented

Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business Largest include these (double counting in the sales) Gemplus ­RFID cards & passports $500 million+ NXP ­ chips $500 million ACS ­ Non stop road tolling and transport card system integrators $500 million Assa Abloy ­ secure access, livestock$400 million Savi ­ military & heavy logistics systems integration $200 million Smartrac - Passport inlays $150 million Allflex ­ livestock tags $110 million

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

Passive and active RFID

Passive has no power supply in the tag - low cost, longest life tags

BIGGEST MARKET

Active has a power supply in the tag, usually a battery

First generation active is a tag that is read when near an interrogator ­ longer range, can initiate a signal. BIG

MARKET eg car keys, military, road toll

Second generation active is Real Time Locating Systems RTLS - many interrogators locating a tag from a distance eg 150 US hospitals

Third Generation Active is Wireless Sensor Networks WSN - every tag "node" can be a reader in a mesh network like the internet ie self organising, self healing and it can sense something.

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

HF RFID is over 50% of market value

National ID card

Security and/or Memory size

Passport label/ page Secure access or credit card Transit card Transit ticket Library book label Item drug label Retail pallet/case label

Aircraft part tag

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Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

Chip cost

3 dollars

© IDTechEx Ltd

Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead Samples are now available

ISO14443 1000 transistors

*

RFID markets ­ tout ça change

The world's most popular annual analysis of RFID markets IDTechEx "RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2010-2020" finds

Largest expenditure by sector 2010 1. Financial, Security, Safety 2. Passenger Transport, Automotive 3. Animals and Farming 2020 1. Retail, Consumer Goods 2. Financial, Security, Safety 3. Land & Sea Logistics, Postal

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

World's largest reality check on RFID

The IDTechEx Knowledgebase of over 4100 projects in 112 countries (4150 organisations, 770 slide shows/audio) shows: Largest number of projects is 1. Financial, Security, Safety, nearly all HF 2. Retail and Consumer Goods, mainly UHF However, Retail/CPG is under 5% of the money spent on RFID so there is a long way to go

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

Number of case studies by project status is a glimpse of the future from the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

1800 1600

Number of case studies

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

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© IDTechEx Ltd

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Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

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Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

Case studies by tag location From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

ag ga ge C ar A ni d m (in C al c. lic s ke ke y r/i fo m b m In ob ) te rm i od Con lise r al ve co ya nt nc ai e ne r/U Ite LD m le ve l O Pa the r lle t/c as e Pa ss po rt Pe op le Ph on e Ti ck et Ve hi cl e

© IDTechEx Ltd

HF is always the most popular frequency 1400 (but UHF people shout loudest)

Number of case studies

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HF is over 50% of the value of the RFID market - cards, tickets, passports, logistics etc World's favourite RFID standard is HF= ISO14443 (+15693)

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Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2009-2019 www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts © IDTechEx Ltd

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Number of case studies

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Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

Passive

© IDTechEx Ltd

Case studies by read/write From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

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Number of case studies

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© IDTechEx Ltd

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Case studies by application From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

A irl in es A an ni B d m oo A al ks irp s ,L an or ib d ts Fi ra Fa na rie rm nc s, in ia A g l, rc Se La hi cu vi nd ng rit an y, d Sa Se fe H a ty ea Lo lth gi ca st ic re s, Po st al La Le un is dr ur y e, Sp M an or uf ts Pa ac ss tu en rin ge g rT M ili ra ta ns ry po R et rt ai , A Oth l, e ut C om r on su ot iv m e er G oo ds

© IDTechEx Ltd

Number of case studies

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Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

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Case studies by tag shape From the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase

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© IDTechEx Ltd

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Tag numbers will rocket if printed RFID with no chip is available and adopted but unnecessarily complicated standards must be abandoned

Number billion Tags 2005 0.7 2010 2.4 2020 125 ­ mainly 2 cent chipless tags

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

Passive tags remain dominant in numbers

Number billion Active Passive 2005 0.05 0.66 2010 0.06 2.3 2020 0.8 124

Total

0.71

2.4

125

Passive tag systems migrate to HF and UHF Active tag systems migrate to 2.45GHz and UWB and are more profitable

Consulting ­ Publications ­ Conferences

© IDTechEx Ltd

For more read:

RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2010-2020

"We found the report to be extremely helpful and well done"

Daniel Luch, CEO, Ertek

www.idtechex.com

Cambridge UK 28-29 September

SPEAKERS INCLUDE BMW Goodyear Gerry Weber Copenhagen Airports Conference Sony Exhibition NP Collection Masterclasses Centre Pompidou Visits NYK Logistics Cubic NXP Guide Dogs for the Blind

www.idtechex.com/rfidEurope

For reports and events see www.idtechex.com

For custom consulting contact :

Americas - Raghu Das at [email protected] Europe and Rest of World - Dr Peter Harrop [email protected] or call + 44 1223 813703

YOUR BUSINESS

OUR INSIGHT

Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx

www.IDTechEx.com

Global Research & Analysis on Printed Electronics, Photovoltaics, Energy Harvesting and RFID

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