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Annual Energy Outlook 2009

Early Release

Energy Information Administration December 17, 2008 www.eia.doe.gov

Energy Information Administration

Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

The economy, oil prices, resources, policies, and behavior drive the AEO2009 reference case

· · · ·

Long-term economic growth averages about 2.5 percent per year between 2007 and 2030 World crude oil prices recover from a near-term decline and reach $130 per barrel (in 2007 dollars) by 2030 A robust domestic natural gas resource base allows for a steady expansion of production given projected growth in demand and prices Recently-enacted policies and concerns over greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, combined with high energy prices, moderate projected growth in energy consumption and emissions

2

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; the full AEO includes a wide range of price cases

2007 dollars per barrel

220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2007 2010 2020 2030

History

Projections

High Price

Reference

Low Price

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

3

Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 79 percent of total energy use in 2030

quadrillion Btu

120

History

Projections

100

Coal

80

Natural Gas

60

40

Liquid Fuels Liquid Biofuels

20

Renewables (excl liquid biofuels)

0 1980

Nuclear

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

4

Energy use per dollar of GDP continues to decline; per capita energy use also declines

index, 1990=1.0 1.2

History

1.0

Projections

Per capita

0.8

0.6

Per dollar

0.4

0.2

0.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

5

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Net dependence on imported liquids declines dramatically over the next 20 years

million barrels per day

30

History

25

Projections

20

Consumption

54% 41% 60% 58% Net Imports

15

10

Domestic supply

5

AEO2009 reference case AEO2008 reference case

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

6

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Petroleum-based liquids consumption is projected to be flat as biofuels use grows

million barrels per day

25

History

20

Projections

Biofuels

15

Transportation

10

5

Electric Power

0 1970 1980 1990 2000

Industrial Residential and Commercial

2010 2020 2030

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

7

New light-duty vehicle sales shift from light trucks back to cars

percent of total sales

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2000 2007 2015 2020 2030

History

Projections

SUV Van Pickup Mid/large Sub/Com pact Mini/2-Seat

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

8

Mild and full hybrid systems dominate new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030

millions of sales

14

History

12

Electric Vehicle/Fuel Cell Vehicle Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Projections

10

8

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle

6

Gaseous Flex Fuel

4

Diesel

2

0 2000 2007 2015 2020 2030

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

9

Biofuels use falls short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target in 2022, but exceeds it by 2030

billion credits

50

Legislated RFS

40

Renewable Diesel

RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments

30 20 10 0

Biomass to Liquids (BTL) Net Ethanol Imports Cellulose Ethanol Biodiesel Ethanol from Other Feedstocks

Corn Ethanol

2007

2022

2030

10

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

The import share of natural gas supply declines sharply as domestic supply grows

trillion cubic feet

30

History

25

Projections

Consumption

16%

3%

Net Imports

14%

20

Domestic supply

15

AEO2009 reference case AEO2008 reference case

10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

11 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Unconventional production meets most growth in natural gas demand and offsets the decline in conventional production and imports

trillion cubic feet

30

History Projections

25 20

Unconventional

15 10 5

Non-associated offshore Associated-dissolved Net imports Non-associated conventional Alaska

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

12 EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Growth in electricity use continues to slow

3-year rolling average percent growth

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

1950 1960

Str uc tur al

History

Projections

Period 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000-2007 2007-2030 Annual Growth 9.0 7.3 4.2 3.1 2.4 1.1 1.0

Ch an ge

in E

co no my -

Hi g he r

p ri ce

s-

Sta nd

ard s

- Im

pro v

ed e

ffic

ien

cy

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

13

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Electricity prices rise with higher capital and fuel costs and growing demand

cents per kilowatthour

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990

History

Projections

Real 2007

Nominal

2000

2010

2020

2030

14

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Generation mix gradually shifts to lower carbon options

billion kilowatthours

6,000

History

Projections

Oil & Other

5,000

Renewable

4,000

Nuclear

3,000

Natural Gas

2,000

Coal

1,000

0 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

15

Nonhydropower renewable sources meet 33% of total generation growth between 2007 and 2030

billion kilowatthours

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990

History

Projections

Solar Geothermal Waste Wind

Biomass

2000

2010

2020

2030

16

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Natural gas and renewables provide most of the generating capacity added between 2007 and 2030

gigawatts

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Coal Natural Gas

139

46 13

Nuclear

57

Renewables

17

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Growth in energy-related CO2 emissions slows with slowing growth in energy use and a shift to less carbon-intensive fuels

million metric tons

7000

History

Projections

AEO2008 reference case

6500

6000

AEO2009 reference case

5500

5000

4500

4000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

18

Electricity generation is the dominant source of CO2 emissions growth

million metric tons

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Buildings Industrial Transportation Electric Power Generation

AEO2008 2030 2007

Purchased Electricity Coal Natural Gas Petroleum

AEO2009 2030

Delivered, including losses in electricity generation

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008 19

Key results from AEO2009 reference case

· · · · · ·

World oil prices rise to higher levels due to growth in world demand and more limited access to resources U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2030 as modest growth in overall liquids demand is met by biofuels U.S. dependence on imported oil, measured as a share of U.S. liquids use, is expected to decline sharply over the next 25 years Natural gas import share of total supply also declines sharply due to increased domestic production with higher prices Unconventional natural gas production, lead by gas shales, is expected to provide the majority of growth in gas supply Energy-related CO2 emissions grow at 0.3 percent per year, absent any new policies to limit emissions

20

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008

Periodic Reports

Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2009, December 2008/ February 2009 International Energy Outlook 2008, August 2008 U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves 2007, October 2008 (Advance Summary), January 2009 (Full Report)

Examples of Special Analyses

Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, May 2008 Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007, April 2008 "Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48 Federal Outer Continental Shelf," Annual Energy Outlook 2007 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, December 2003 Howard Gruenspecht [email protected]

www.eia.doe.gov

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